Does Dortmund reduce the gap to Bayern?
Does excitement enter the title race in the Bundesliga after all? Because Dortmund managed to make up two points on leaders Bayern at the weekend and Munich are not making the most stable impression at the moment anyway, there is still a chance, at least in mathematical terms, that BVB will stalk the record champions. To give expression to this minimal hope, the Black and Yellows absolutely need a three-pointer on Wednesday evening in the catch-up game.
If we look at the bookmakers’ odds before the match between Mainz and Dortmund, then coach Marco Rose’s team will indeed go into this encounter as favorites. At the top, a 1.90 can be dusted off at Unibet for the away win. For the home win or a draw, meanwhile, odds of 4.15 and 4.00 respectively are offered.
The implied advantages of the guests can be explained primarily by the fact that FSV is coming out of an extended break from matches, the personnel situation continues to raise question marks, and Borussia has also enjoyed playing at the Rheinhessen in the recent past.
None of the last six guest games in the carnival stronghold was lost from the point of view of the current second in the table. Given these circumstances, it may make sense to make a prediction on the away treble between Mainz and Dortmund, which could see BVB shrink the gap to the FCB to six points.
Mainz – statistics & current form
For the second time this season, Mainz 05 is struggling with a major outbreak of the pandemic within the team. While FSV were able to shrug off this problem surprisingly well on the first matchday in mid-August, winning their home game against RB Leipzig 1-0, they are now facing a setback in their fight for a place in the top half of the table.
At the top, 14 players tested positive and consequently had to go into domestic isolation. During the subsequent performance tests, including pulse and heart rate measurements, it became clear that none of these players had already regained their previous fitness level. As a consequence, coach Bo Svensson, who also became infected and had to go into quarantine, will probably rely on many players from the second row or even the U23 on Wednesday night.
Substitute-weakened Mainz rely on home advantage
With this in mind, it comes as quite a surprise that the odds for the away win between Mainz and Dortmund are nevertheless scratching close to the 2.00 mark. It is probably due to the fact that the Rheinhessen have so far made a very good impression in front of a home crowd and even occupy fourth place in the home table.
Eight wins are offset by three draws and only one defeat in twelve games at the MEWA Arena. The only seven goals conceded at home are also by far the best in the league! The most recent five home games were all victorious, including against Champions League contenders Leverkusen or Hoffenheim.
With the exception of a 0-0 draw against SC Freiburg in mid-September, the Nullfünfer have scored at least one goal of their own in all home games to date. Regardless of which personnel will be on the pitch on Wednesday night, a goal is definitely to be expected from the tenth-placed team, which will play its first competitive match in March. 14 shots on goal per Bundesliga match underpin the offensive quality.
It remains to be seen to what extent the good form (three wins, one draw from the last four games) and the associated incentive of remaining unbeaten five times in a row for the first time this season will help after the aforementioned break in play. Likewise, reliable statements about the starting eleven or the available squad are not particularly serious. Definitely missing, however, will be Dominik Kohr and Alexander Hack, who will have to watch suspended.
Predicted lineup of Mainz:
due to the many question marks is not a serious representation possible
Last matches of Mainz:
1st Bundesliga
02/26 2022 – Union Berlin 3 – 1 Mainz 05
02/18 2022 – Mainz 05 3 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen
02/12 2022 – SC Freiburg 1 – 1 Mainz 05
02/05 2022 – Mainz 05 2 – 0 Hoffenheim
Club friendlies
01/27 2022 – Mainz 05 0 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Dortmund – statistics & current form
Often in the past, Borussia Dortmund was accused of not getting enough “dirty” wins. Exactly such a victory finally came last Sunday, when stubborn Bielefeld were defeated 1-0 at Signal Iduna Park by the skin of their teeth. In retrospect, however, hardly anyone was really satisfied. Most of those involved agreed, however, that it might not have been enough for another three points against a somewhat stronger opponent.
The comeback of Erling Haaland, who was substituted together with Gio Reyna in the 60th minute, gave hope. The Norwegian’s lack of match practice was definitely noticeable, however, so it will be interesting to see whether coach Marco Rose throws his attacking life insurance into the deep end right from the start on Wednesday or whether he will be back in the starting eleven for the first time in Sunday’s tough away match.
Dortmund away again spectacular?
Purely in terms of results, the Black-Yellows have been very happy on the road in recent weeks. Ten points from the most recent four away games underline this thesis, as do the ten goals scored in the course of this unbeaten streak.
Before the 1:1 in Augsburg, Borussia always scored at least three goals in three consecutive away games. The only time BVB went without a goal in 2021/22 was in the 0-0 draw at Gladbach in the first half of the season. There are therefore plausible arguments in favor of predicting goals for both teams between Mainz and Dortmund or, more generally, a few goals in the course of the game. In fact, in only six of the 25 completed matches in the Bundesliga would the bet on “both score” not have gone through.
In terms of personnel, coach Rose, who as an active player had all of his 65 Bundesliga appearances with FSV Mainz 05 (2004-2007) and thus meets his “old love”, must improvise again. Guerreiro, Meunier, Moukoko, Reus and Zagadou continue to drop out. Mats Hummels has tested free, but should not yet be at 100%. In central defense, therefore, Can and Pongracic will probably be given preference again. Defensive stability defines itself differently…
Predicted lineup of Dortmund:
Kobel – Passlack, Can, Pongracic, N. Schulz – Dahoud – Brandt, Bellingham – M. Wolf, Haaland, Malen
Last matches of Dortmund:
1st Bundesliga
03/13 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
02/27 2022 – Augsburg 1 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
Europa League Final Stage
02/24 2022 – Rangers 2 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
1st Bundesliga
02/20 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 6 – 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Europa League Final Stage
02/17 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 4 Rangers
Mainz – Dortmund Direct comparison / H2H balance
Wednesday night marks the 32nd time the clubs have faced each other in the Bundesliga. Dortmund has won 18 meetings so far, drawn in eight other matches and only lost out in five. In Mainz, BVB has not lost any of its last six away games and has recorded 16 points out of a possible 18.
The first leg on matchday eight also ended in a 3:1 win for the Black and Yellows, who are therefore rightly the favorites going into the make-up match. Between Mainz and Dortmund, the bet on the away win is therefore an interesting option, especially if you combine it with the fact that Borussia will not remain without conceding a goal.
Mainz – Dortmund tip
Originally, the Mainz vs Dortmund match was supposed to go over the first weekend of March, but due to numerous positive tests, the Rheinhessen side are only now returning to match action. For the first time since the end of February, the zero-fives are back in action. And then against the current runners-up and championship contenders from Westphalia.
Because the home side will not be at 100% and some players will not be available at all, the betting odds on an away win between Mainz and Dortmund are quite attractive. Especially considering that BVB took 16 points from their last six unbeaten games in Mainz and won 18 of their 31 Bundesliga encounters against FSV.
Nonetheless, we have decided on a different tip ahead of the Mainz vs Dortmund clash. Namely, we believe that goals will be scored. The zero-fivers have won all of their last five home games and have only failed to score in one match in front of their home crowd over the entire season. Schwarz-Gelb stands for spectacle anyway, especially through comebacker Haaland, who may even start from the start.
