Tough match between two direct table neighbours?
There will be a warm-up of sorts for 1. FSV Mainz 05 and VfL Bochum on Saturday. Their must-win match on matchday 19 of the Bundesliga will be followed just three days later by a reunion in North Rhine-Westphalia, when both teams battle it out in the last 16 of the DFB Cup for a place in the round of the best eight teams.
The VfL are in somewhat better form going into this clash. The Blue and Whites have won six of their last eleven league games and started the new year with a victory, while the Rheinhessen side have lost three of their last four league games. Nevertheless, in the run-up to the first clash between Mainz and Bochum, the odds are swinging in the direction of the home side.
It should be noted that both teams are on a par with each other. In terms of the table, there is only a single point between the two rivals, who both have seven wins from their first 18 games. It is therefore difficult to predict the outcome of the match between Mainz and Bochum.
In our opinion, betting on a low-scoring game offers more value, especially as games involving VfL have rarely been high-scoring.
Mainz – Statistics & current form
It has been almost exactly a year since 1. FSV Mainz 05 stood at the bottom of the Bundesliga table with their backs completely against the wall. Everything looked as if the Rhinelanders would have to accompany the similarly desolate FC Schalke 04 into the second division in the course of a completely screwed-up season.
But then Bo Svensson took over as coach of the red and white team and the upward trend took its course. The Nullfünfer picked up a whopping 57 points from their 38 games in the calendar year 2021. Only Bayern, Dortmund, Frankfurt and Leipzig had a better haul.
Only two wins in the last eight league games
At one point, it even looked as if the Mainz side might even be in the running for a European spot after their impressive league record. However, since they have only won two of their last eight league games (two draws, four defeats), they are now in tenth place after the recent 1:4 in Leipzig.
At least at home, however, the momentum of the Nullfünfer is still there. At the Mewa Arena, the Svensson eleven recently remained unbeaten in five consecutive home games in the Bundesliga (three wins, two draws).
The best home defence in the Bundesliga
In addition, the Red and Whites have the best home defence in the entire Bundesliga. Only five goals have been conceded in the nine home games so far. So far, no other Bundesliga team has been as difficult to overcome in its own stadium as the Rheinhessen team.
Against this backdrop, there is a lot to be said for a low-scoring match between Mainz and Bochum. After all, the visitors from North Rhine-Westphalia have not been too offensively strong so far this season.
Predicted line-up of Mainz:
Zentner – Niakhaté – Bell – Nemeth – Aaron – Stach – Widmer – Lee – Barreiro – Onisiwo – Burkardt
Last matches played by Mainz:
1st Bundesliga
01/08 2022 – RB Leipzig 4 – 1 Mainz 05
12/18 2021 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 0 Mainz 05
12/14 2021 – Mainz 05 4 – 0 Hertha Berlin
12/11 2021 – Bayern Munich 2 – 1 Mainz 05
12/04 2021 – Mainz 05 3 – 0 Vfl Wolfsburg
Bochum – Statistics & current form
VfL Bochum were surprisingly promoted to the Bundesliga last summer after a very strong season overall. The Blue and Whites thus returned to the top flight eleven years after their relegation from the top flight of German football.
Although it did not initially look as if the once so grey mouse, which actually achieved the feat of strengthening itself only with loan players and players on loan without investing a single cent in transfer fees, could hold its own in the shark tank of the Bundesliga.
Lost seven of nine league games away from home
Having won four of their last eight league games, Bochum are currently in a safe mid-table position in eleventh place in the table.
After the recent 1-0 win over VfL Wolfsburg, Bochum are already five points clear of the relegation places.
However, the Blue and Whites need to get a grip on their weakness away from home. The home-strong VfL lost seven of their nine away games in the 2021/22 season (two wins), with just six goals scored away from home. Only Leipzig scored less often away from home (5x).
Win rate of just 14% against Mainz
Despite good form overall, Thomas Reis’ men travel to Rheinhessen as underdogs.
Also because the VfL only have a lower winning percentage against FC Bayern (12%) than against 1. FSV Mainz 05 (14%), a point win at the Mewa Arena can probably be achieved at most through a united defensive performance.
Predicted line-up of Bochum:
Riemann – Soares – Leitsch – Masovic – Gamboa – Losilla – Rexhbecaj – Löwen – Holtmann – Pantovic – Polter
Last matches played by Bochum:
1st Bundesliga
01/09 2022 – Vfl Bochum 1 – 0 Vfl Wolfsburg
12/18 2021 – Vfl Bochum 0 – 1 Union Berlin
12/14 2021 – Arminia Bielefeld 2 – 0 Vfl Bochum
12/11 2021 – Vfl Bochum 1 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
12/04 2021 – Augsburg 2 – 3 Vfl Bochum
Mainz – Bochum Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 8 – 2 – 6
The two teams have faced each other a total of 16 times so far and the balance is in favour of the Bochum side, although almost all of their victories against the Mainz side have come in the cup or in the 2nd division. In the Bundesliga, five of the first six duels were won by the Nullfünfer (one draw).
Mainz – Bochum Tip
Mainz against Bochum should not be overestimated, however. The fact is that in this quite interesting duel, two neighbours in the league standings will meet on equal terms, and they should not waste all their powder in the league. After all, they will be facing each other again just three days later in the last 16 of the DFB Cup.
We expect both teams to be comparatively cautious. Moreover, because the best home defence in the league meets the second-weakest away defence, it should tend to be a low-scoring affair.
We therefore recommend betting on less than 2.5 goals, for which odds of 1.90 are available for Mainz against Bochum.
