Does Bo Svensson manage the historic victory?

On Saturday, something historic could happen in Mainz. Volker Finke won his first three home games as coach with SC Freiburg against FC Bayern between 1993 and 1996. This feat, although it sounds amazing, has also been achieved most recently by Bo Svensson. Four home wins against FCB in his first four games as coach has never been achieved by a coach in the top flight. We look in our Mainz vs Bayern tip whether something unprecedented will happen on Saturday.

However, the conditions could hardly be worse for FSV. With only two points from seven games, the 05er are namely in penultimate place. You don’t have to know much about soccer and the three-point rule to realize that the Rheinhessen side is still without a win this season. It’s hard to imagine that this will be any different against the record champions.

Bayern may have dropped points here and there this season, but they are still unbeaten in the Bundesliga and go into this match as clear favorites.

One statistic that supports our assumption is the value of expected goals. Bayern are at 20.1 there this season and have even surpassed that figure with 23 goals. Mainz have the lowest value with 6.8, but have managed to undercut this with six goals. From there, it even almost sounds like Bayern fans can expect a handicap win.

Mainz – statistics & current form

There were phases in the penultimate season and even in the middle of last season, when Bo Svensson was already ranked in the ranks of great Mainz coaches around Jürgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel. Currently, we probably have to put this comparison into perspective a bit, because it’s hardly an exaggeration to say that Mainz have been staggering through the top flight for months now.

Extremely long dry spell in the Bundesliga

Not only are the 05ers playing their second-weakest season in the Bundesliga to date, they are also winless after seven games. That had last happened in the 2020/21 season. At that time, the first win came on the eighth matchday. We don’t think that the streak will end on Saturday, and in the duel between Mainz and Bayern, we’re only looking at the odds that have something to do with an away win.

The Mainz are namely not only still winless this season, but have been waiting for a three-pointer for twelve Bundesliga games across the season. The last success actually came on matchday 29 in the preseason against FC Bayern. For 15 Bundesliga games, the Rheinhessen side has now failed to complete a Bundesliga match without conceding a goal.

Before the international break, there was at least a point gained again after four defeats in a row, when they fought their way to a 2:2 draw in Mönchengladbach. After falling behind, Mainz showed morale and initially turned the game around to lead 2-1 after goals from Brajan Gruda and Aymen Barkok. In the end, however, the 2:2 was more than okay for the 05ers in terms of the shares of the game.

Predicted lineup of Mainz:

Bayern – statistics & current form

Of course, Thomas Tuchel’s return to his old stomping grounds is always interesting, but the big question at FC Bayern is whether Manuel Neuer will make his comeback on Saturday. The international keeper is in training and if the coach expresses confidence in him, the captain could indeed be back between the posts in Mainz after a ten-month injury layoff.

For the first time since Ancelotti started the season seven games undefeated

But it will probably depend less on Bayern’s goalkeeper on Saturday. Bayern are still undefeated this season. That’s the first time they’ve managed that in seven years, back then still under Carlo Ancelotti. In our opinion, the Munich team will continue to extend this streak. We can even imagine predicting a win for the record champions between Mainz and Bayern.

With 23 goals, Bayern has the best offense in the Bundesliga. A major part of this is due to Harry Kane, who has already scored eight goals in the top flight and basically scores at will in all competitions. The attacker was also very successful with the English national team during the international break and we can imagine that the center forward will also score in Mainz, perhaps even several times.

Before the international break, Munich hosted SC Freiburg at the Allianz Arena. In that match, however, Kingsley Coman stood out as the matchwinner. The Frenchman scored to make it 1:0 and also sealed the Bayern victory with a 3:0. In the meantime, Leroy Sane was on hand. So Harry Kane remained scoreless and maybe this is the right incentive to score again on Saturday.

Predicted Bayern lineup:

Mainz – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H balance

In total, Mainz 05 and FC Bayern have faced each other on the pitch in 37 competitive matches. Of course, it must be said, the direct comparison clearly speaks for the star of the south. After victories, the FCB is more than clearly ahead with 27:7. It is interesting to note that in this multitude of games, with three draws, there have been very few point-splits.

Of course, we have already mentioned that Bo Svensson has won his first three home games in the Bundesliga against Bayern, including the 3:1 win in April. Of course, we also have to put these statistics into perspective a bit, because FC Bayern also visited Mainz in the DFB-Pokal last season and won clearly 4:0 at that time.

Mainz – Bayern Tip

You can spin it any way you want. There is almost not a single aspect that speaks in favor of Mainz 05 keeping the three points at home on Saturday, or even just taking a counter. Not only are the Rheinhessen side without a win this season, but they have also been waiting a season-long twelve games for a treble in the top flight. In addition, Bo Svensson’s team has the weakest defense in the Bundesliga.

The last three home victories in the Beletage against Bayern are a great record, but should rather spur on the guests on Saturday. Munich are still unbeaten in the Bundesliga this year and arrive in very good form.

But we don’t expect the best offense to score only once against the weakest defense. Rather, we expect a clear victory for Munich, possibly again with goals from center forward Harry Kane. So in the end we decided to play the betting odds on a handicap win (-1.5 goals) for the guests between Mainz and Bayern.