Does Bo Svensson have the right remedy again?

Thomas Tuchel gets it after his debut against Borussia Dortmund (4:2) already in the fourth league game as Bayern coach again to do with a former employer. The 49-year-old was in charge of Mainz between 2009 and 2014, during which time he managed a points average of 1.41 in 170 Bundesliga games.

To date, only one other Mainz coach has surpassed that tally: Bo Svensson (1.48), under whom the Rheinhessen side also won their last two Bundesliga home games against Munich. So it’s not a no-brainer to play Mainz vs Bayern tip 2.

Finally, FCB continued to struggle even after the change of coach. The Munich team not only failed in the DFB Cup and the Champions League, but also lost in the Bundesliga for the first time under their new coach with a 1-1 draw against Hoffenheim. Accordingly, the forecast for Mainz against Bayern is that the zero-fives, who have not lost any of their last nine league games (five wins, four draws), could have something to gain.

In fact, Mainz is also the third-best team in the Bundesliga second half with 22 points from eleven league games behind Dortmund (26) and Bayern (23), who have managed to pick up just one more point than the Rheinhessen side in that period. It is also striking that FSV has always scored in the last 14 league games in a row without exception. A series that is only topped by the FCB (21 league games in a row).

Also looking at the fact that Munich have won only one of their last five competitive games (two draws, two defeats), we find a lot of value in betting that Mainz will not lose this home game.

Mainz – statistics & current form

While 1. FSV Mainz 05 definitely had to deal with problems in the first half of the season. In the second half, however, the Rheinhessen flourished in all form. After scoring a total of just 20 points in the 17 games played in the first half of the season, they have already racked up 22 points in the eleven games played in the second half.

As a result, the Nullfünfer are in third place in the second-round table and can actually hope to qualify for a European competition once again. Depending on the overall winner of the DFB Cup, seventh place could be enough to qualify for the Conference League. FSV is currently only two points off sixth place as well.

No other Bundesliga team has been unbeaten longer than Mainz

Especially in recent weeks, things could hardly have gone any better for Mainz, who haven’t lost in a total of nine league games (five wins, four draws). That is the longest running unbeaten streak in the entire Bundesliga.

Consequently, the forecast for Mainz against Bayern makes a lot of sense that the Rheinhessen can continue their recent run against the German record champion. Although there was against the Munich at the beginning of February in the DFB Cup a clear 0:4 home defeat. In the Bundesliga, however, FSV has won the two home games under Bo Svensson against FCB so far.

Only lost three of 14 Bundesliga home games

Also overall, the home record of the only Bundesliga team from Rhineland-Palatinate is convincing. Mainz have lost only three of their 14 Bundesliga home games so far. In addition, there is the offensive penetrating power of the Svensson eleven.

Not only has FSV always scored in the last 14 Bundesliga games in a row without exception, but the Nullfünfer also boast the sixth-best offense in the entire Bundesliga with a total of 46 goals. Because 39 goals conceded also give the Rheinhessen team the sixth-best defensive record, the complete package is just right.

Last games played by Mainz:

Bundesliga

• 15/04/2023 – 1. FC Cologne 1 – 1 Mainz 05
• 08/04/2023 – Mainz 05 2 – 2 Werder Bremen
• 01/04/2023 – RB Leipzig 0 – 3 Mainz 05
• 20/03/2023 – Mainz 05 1 – 1 SC Freiburg
• 11/03/2023 – Hertha BSC 1 – 1 Mainz 05

Bayern – statistics & current form

Fc Bayern Munich once again wanted to make an attack on the prestigious triple in the 2022/23 season. Because the club bosses saw this goal at risk, Julian Nagelsmann had to pack his bags during the international break under curious circumstances.

Thomas Tuchel took over, under whom the FCB regained the lead in the standings with a 4:2 home victory over Borussia Dortmund. In the other competitions, however, things went extremely badly.

Full concentration on the Bundesliga

After suffering an unexpected home defeat to SC Freiburg in the DFB Pokal, which will not go to the Isar for the third time in a row this season, the Reds have now also been eliminated from the Champions League. The hoped-for miracle failed to materialize due to the 1-1 draw at home against Manchester City.

It is now all the more important for the German record champion to at least defend its two-point lead over Borussia Dortmund over the last few match days. Last weekend, Bayern was already quite lucky that BVB didn’t take advantage of the fact that they only drew 1-1 at home against relegation-threatened TSG Hoffenheim.

Only 57.1% of all Bundesliga away games won

When it comes to Mainz against Bayern, the odds are very clearly in favor of Thomas Tuchel’s team. In fact, however, FCB has won just one of its last five competitive games (two draws, two defeats) and travels to in-form Rheinhessen with anything but confidence.

To make matters worse, the team from the Isar has been vulnerable away from home time and again. The Munich team still leads the Bundesliga’s away table. In fact, however, six of the 14 Bundesliga away games so far in the 2022/23 season have not been won (three draws, three defeats) – and thus 42.9% of all away games.

Last matches played by Bayern:

Champions League finals

• 20/04/2023 –  Bayern Munich 1 – 1 Manchester City

Bundesliga

• 15/04/2023 – Bayern Munich 1 – 1 Hoffenheim

Champions League Final

• 12/04/2023 – Manchester City 3 – 0 Bayern Munich

Bundesliga

• 08/04/2023 – SC Freiburg 0 – 1 Bayern Munich

DFB Cup

• 05/04/2023 – Bayern Munich 1 – 2 SC Freiburg

Mainz – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H balance

Head to head: 6 – 3 – 27

There have been a total of 36 meetings between the two teams so far and with 27 wins, FC Bayern leads the direct comparison very clearly. The Munich team not only beat the Rheinhessen side 6:2 in the first leg, but also won the round of 16 of the DFB Cup 4:0 at the Mewa Arena. The last two Bundesliga home games, however, the Nullfünfer have won each against the German record champions.

Mainz – Bayern Tip

When it comes to Mainz against Bayern, the betting odds do swing very clearly in the direction of the visitors. However, several points speak against an away win for the Munich team, which has recently won only one of five competitive matches (two draws, two defeats). This contrasts with the Nullfünfer’s run of nine Bundesliga games unbeaten (five wins, four draws) and, under former Tuchel protégé Bo Svensson, they have also won their last two Bundesliga home games in a row against the German record champions.

While it is not risk-free to play the double chance 1X tip on Mainz vs Bayern. However, the associated value offers the best ratio of risk, probability of occurrence and winning opportunity given the overall condition of Munich.