Which team will stop the downward trend?
The flow of the promising start to the season has been lost at FSV Mainz 05 in recent weeks. After a more than respectable ten points from their first five games, they have recently suffered three Bundesliga defeats in a row, which have seen the Svensson team drop to eleventh place in the standings. Next Friday, the Rheinhessen side will be desperate to get back on track and end their drought.
At first glance, this endeavour seems to be absolutely within the realm of possibility. After all, Mainz are the clear favourites against Augsburg according to the odds. However, if we take a look at the record of both clubs in direct duels, it becomes clear that FCA have won all of the past five encounters and have generally won exactly half of all encounters in the top flight against the Nullfünfer.
Because the Fuggerstädter have already scored at Frankfurt and Union Berlin this season, we will not be making any predictions on the outcome of the match between Mainz and Augsburg on Friday evening. Far more lucrative are potential bets on a small number of goals. After the impressions so far, an offensive spectacle is by no means to be thought of.
Mainz – Statistics & current form
Bo Svensson has been in charge at FSV Mainz 05 since the beginning of January, but the Danish coach has not yet had to go through a mini-crisis like the current one. His zero-fives have recently lost three times in a row, exactly as often as in 20 Bundesliga games before. But because the defeats came exclusively against European Cup representatives (Leverkusen, Union and Dortmund), the concern in the carnival stronghold is still limited.
Nevertheless, an undesirable development cannot be ignored. This becomes particularly clear when you look at the offensive output of the Rheinhessen. Only two goals scored in the past four matchdays underline the harmlessness of their forward play. In total, the Svensson team has only scored eight goals. Only the four teams in the bottom four have managed to get the ball over the goal line less often.
Stable defence should be the cornerstone
The team can rely on its own defence, which even shares second place in this ranking with record champions Bayern with eight goals conceded. Robin Zentner has only had to make two saves at home – both against Union Berlin. In the other three home games, the keeper always kept a clean sheet.
This is one of the reasons why it is definitely worth considering a bet between Mainz and Augsburg that the home side will win without conceding a goal. However, if the 2.75 at the top that we found in the Bet365 app is too risky, you can alternatively bet that only one of the two teams will score. In six out of eight Bundesliga games involving FSV, the “Do they both score? No” would have paid off.
On a positive note, however, the personnel situation at Rheinhessen is slowly easing. Alexander Hack and Adam Szalai have made up for lost time in training and are again an option, as is Dominik Kohr, whose yellow-red ban has expired. It is quite possible that the midfielder will start against his former club. Kohr once celebrated his breakthrough in the top flight under Markus Weinzierl at FCA. Only the quick central defender St. Juste is missing due to a shoulder injury.
Predicted line-up of Mainz:
Zentner – Bell, Hack, Niakhaté – Widmer, Kohr, Aaron – Barreiro, Boetius – Onisiwo, Burkardt
Last matches played by Mainz:
1st Bundesliga
10/16 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 3 – 1 Mainz 05
10/03 2021 – Mainz 05 1 – 2 Union Berlin
09/25 2021 – Bayer Leverkusen 1 – 0 Mainz 05
09/18 2021 – Mainz 05 0 – 0 SC Freiburg
09/11 2021 – Hoffenheim 0 – 2 Mainz 05
Augsburg – Statistics & current form
Augsburg missed out on a liberation strike in the Bundesliga’s relegation battle last Sunday at home to Arminia Bielefeld. Despite an interim 1-0 lead, FCA had to settle for a 1-1 draw against the East Westphalians after 90 minutes. The team of coach Markus Weinzierl has been waiting for three games now. Since they have only won one match this season (1:0 against Gladbach), the Fuggerstädter are currently in the relegation zone.
Similar to their upcoming opponents from the capital of Rhineland-Palatinate, Augsburg’s offensive play is the main problem. Together with Bielefeld, FCA has the weakest offensive in the Bundesliga. Only four goals have been scored in the eight match days so far. In exactly half of all matches, the attack remained without a goal. There was also no more than one own goal in any of the eight matches.
Is FCA speculating on a third 0:0 away from home?
Adding to the difficulty on Friday night is the fact that the southern Swabians have not won in ten away games in the top flight. In addition to eight defeats, there have also been two draws. Both in the current season; both were significantly zero numbers. In three of the four guest games, the intended bet on the “BTS? No” would have paid off. There is therefore no lack of statistical arguments to justify the corresponding odds for this betting market between Mainz and Augsburg.
The only real glimmer of hope is the already indicated H2h record, which clearly points in the direction of the guests. The Fuggerstädter have not won five consecutive matches against any other league rival. In view of the current state of affairs, the low level of self-confidence and the fact that two key players, Niederlechner and Uduokhai, are absent due to injury, it is still too risky to predict that Weinzierl’s side will win a point in the Mainz vs Augsburg clash.
Predicted Augsburg line-up:
Gikiewicz – Gumny, Gouweleeuw, Oxford – Caligiuri, Maier, Strobl, Pedersen – Zeqiri, Vargas – Hahn
Last matches played by Augsburg:
1st Bundesliga
10/17 2021 – Augsburg 1 – 1 Arminia Bielefeld
10/02 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 1 Augsburg
09/26 2021 – SC Freiburg 3 – 0 Augsburg
09/18 2021 – Augsburg 1 – 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach
09/11 2021 – Union Berlin 0 – 0 Augsburg
Mainz – Augsburg Direct comparison / H2H balance
Last season FC Augsburg won the away match in Mainz with 1:0. The golden goal was scored by André Hahn, who also scored a brace in his team’s 3-1 win in the first leg. Incidentally: In the 2019/20 season, the Rheinhessen side also lost their home match against FCA 0:1.
In total, the Fuggerstädter have ten wins in 20 Bundesliga matches (eight defeats, two draws). Only against Werder Bremen (34) did the southern Swabians score more goals than against the Nullfünfer (29). Also interesting: In five of the most recent ten encounters, only one of the two teams scored.
Mainz – Augsburg Tip
The opening match of the Bundesliga on Matchday 9 will be a clash between Mainz and Augsburg at the MEWA Arena. The betting odds for a home win are currently 1.75 at the top, implying a probability of 56%. Although FCA have recently been a welcome guest in the stadiums of this country, it is too risky for us to place a corresponding bet on a home win, partly due to the direct comparison.
In our eyes, it is far more exciting to focus on the different goal markets. For example, we do not expect the 2.5 goal mark to be broken. Both teams have big problems offensively, but are usually very stable defensively. Mainz have only conceded two goals at home, while Augsburg have already fought their way to two goalless draws away from home.
Even higher odds are offered between Mainz and Augsburg for the bet that at most one of the two teams will score. This is supported by the statistic that only one team scored in six of the eight matches involving FSV this season. With FCA, too, the “BTS? No” would have gone through in five out of eight cases.
At the same time, this betting recommendation also includes the 1:0 victory of the Fuggerstädter, after all, the last two matches in Rheinhessen ended exactly with this result… In general, the Augsburg team has five wins in a row against the Nullfünfer.
