
Will FCH once again pay tribute to the Conference League?
In the first leg, 1. FC Heidenheim celebrated a 2-0 away win at 1. FSV Mainz 05. A lot has changed since then. While the Swabians from the Swabian Alb have since lost 13 of 16 Bundesliga games (one win, two draws) and only scored five points in this time frame, the yield of the Rhine Hessians (27) is only surpassed by Bayern and Leverkusen. Therefore, the first thing to do at Heidenheim against Mainz is to check the tip for the away win of the zero-five.
Although the Brenzstadters tanked fresh self-confidence during the week in the Conference League with a 2-1 win in Copenhagen. However, the red-and-blues have not sold themselves too well in their previous English weeks. Among other things, the double burden was also a factor in the poor performance in the Bundesliga, which is why our prediction for the game between Heidenheim and Mainz leans towards the visitors, although they have not yet been able to win any of their three previous league games against FCH (one draw, two defeats).
It cannot be denied that Mainz have lost their way a bit, especially away from home. While they have only lost a single game out of their last 11 Bundesliga away games in 2024, the Rhine Hessians are still waiting for their first point in the new year. However, FSV are now visiting the team with the weakest home record in the top flight of German football. Heidenheim have only picked up seven points at home – a league-wide low.
The bottom line is that the best value can be found in the odds for the away win of the zero-fivers in Heidenheim against Mainz. We find quotations of 2.10 for this in the practical Interwetten app.
Heidenheim vs. Mainz forecast AI
Supercomputer BETSiE is always able to surprise us. This is also the case in this Sunday’s game between two teams whose form curves are drifting apart. Since Heidenheim’s 2-0 win in Mainz, the Brenzstädter have only managed to get five points out of the last 16 league games. The Rhine Hessians, on the other hand, have scored 27 points in the same period.
Nevertheless, the AI calculates a probability of 36.9 percent for the home win for the Ostalbschwaben, which we really cannot understand. After all, the FCH is the weakest home team in the Bundesliga, while the Nullfünfer are even eighth in the away table despite recent problems. Nevertheless, the AI prediction for the game between Heidenheim and Mainz is still to bet on Tip 1, because the odds of 3.60, which we find in the Bet365 app, suggest that there is value in betting on the home win of the red and blues from a probability of 28 percent. The BETSIER outbids this remarkably well.
Heidenheim – Statistics & current form
Initially, 1. FC Heidenheim picked up where last year’s debutant left off in early summer in 2024/25. The Swabians got off to a strong start to the season, but then completely lost their way in the wake of the double burden of the UEFA Conference League after the 2-0 win in Mainz.
The red-and-blues only managed a single victory in their last 16 Bundesliga games (two draws, 13 defeats), which has plunged the upstart deep into the relegation battle. There have already been 15 defeats in the first 21 match days. No team with so many defeats at this point has ever managed to avoid relegation. In any case, no team has ever been in the relegation spot with only 14 points since the introduction of the three-point rule, but would have always been in a direct relegation spot with this amount.
Heidenheim still without a point in the second half of the season
Things are going catastrophically in the second half of the season. FCH is the only team in the Bundesliga to have lost all four matches in the second half of the season. As a result, the odds are against Heidenheim winning against Mainz, but the team from the Ostalb celebrated a 2-1 comeback victory against FC Copenhagen during the week despite a tough rotation – Frank Schmidt made ten changes.
The second half of the game in particular provided new confidence, although even in the Conference League, it is still far from certain that the team will reach the last sixteen. In particular, the home record is ultimately a major problem for the red-and-blues. Only seven points from ten home games means last place in the home table. In addition, Heidenheim has contested the most duels in the league (an average of 108 per game), but only won 50.2 percent of them.
Predicted Heidenheim line-up:
Mainz – statistics & current form
1. FSV Mainz 05 have regained their composure under Bo Henriksen. Although setbacks are still part of their day-to-day business – for example, after three wins in a row, the Red & Whites only took four out of a possible 15 points from their last five Bundesliga games – the only Bundesliga club from Rhineland-Palatinate still has its sights set on a European place.
Currently, Mainz are in seventh place in the table, but in the last two league games in a row they not only remained winless but also scored no goals (one draw, one defeat). Against this background, the tip for the game between Heidenheim and Mainz is not an absolute sure thing, despite the very sovereign Rhine Hessians having 32 points from 21 games.
Mainz is extremely secure defensively
But if they want to qualify for Europe in the end, the FSV has to get the recent away weakness under control again quickly. Mainz have not yet taken a point away from home in 2025 and have lost three away games in a row – for the first time ever under Henriksen. Mainz also remain harmless in set-pieces: despite 102 corners, they have not scored a single goal from a corner this season.
However, the defense deserves a positive mention. The Nullfünfer, with 24 goals conceded, have the second-best defense in the league after Bayern Munich (19) and have even conceded the fewest goals from open play (13). Goalkeeper Robin Zentner also proved to be a safe pair of hands with a strong 74 percent save rate. These are factors that could well make the difference against FCH, who are weak at home, having scored only nine goals in ten home games.
Predicted Mainz line-up:
Heidenheim v Mainz Head to head:
Head to head: 2 – 1 – 0
The two teams have met three times in the Bundesliga so far, with 1. FC Heidenheim remaining completely undefeated against 1. FSV Mainz 05 (two wins, one draw). The team from the Brenz region have not yet picked up more points against any other team than against the Rhine Hessians (seven), while FCH is conversely the only current Bundesliga team against which the Nullfünfer have never won.
Heidenheim – Mainz Tip
Although the 2-1 comeback victory of the Brenzstädter at the league leader of the Danish Superliga on Thursday evening was impressive, the form of the Ostalbschwaben is overall just too weak. Consequently, our prediction for the game between Heidenheim and Mainz is a clean sheet, as although they have not yet scored away from home since the winter break, they have already picked up 14 points in away games and are ranked eighth in the Bundesliga away goals chart. By comparison, FCH are bottom of the home table with just seven points.
In fact, the Swabians have only won one of their last 16 Bundesliga games (two draws, 13 defeats), which is why we calculate that the guests from Rhineland-Palatinate have at least a 50 percent chance of winning away at the Schlossberg.