Will Spurs live up to their role as favourites?
Tottenham Hotspur are the only team other than city rivals Arsenal to remain unbeaten in the Premier League after seven matches (five wins, two draws). Spurs are second in the table and only one point behind the reigning triple winners Manchester City. So the betting on Luton against Tottenham is very good for the next three points for the Lilywhites.
The Londoners are unbeaten in nine games against Luton (five wins, four draws) and have a strong away record at Kenilworth Road. Spurs are the only Premier League club to have played away from home at least four times and are still unbeaten in the 2023/24 season (two wins, two draws). Accordingly, when it comes to Luton vs Tottenham, our prediction goes for an away win for the Lilywhites.
The crucial question is how to get the most value out of betting on an away win for Tottenham Hotspur FC. After all, the best bookmakers offer peak quotes of less than 1.50 for tip 2, which means there is no positive expected value to be found in this bet.
Considering that the Londoners have the fourth best attack in the Premier League with 17 goals and that Luton have already conceded 14 goals in seven games, there should be a goal or two at Kenilworth Road. It is therefore very coherent in our eyes to combine tip 2 with a bet on more than 1.5 goals.
Luton – Statistics & current form
Luton Town Football Club, with its distinctive orange and dark blue club colours and unique stadium with the visitors’ block accessible only through an alleyway between the backyards and gardens of privately owned terraced houses, were promoted to the Premier League for the first time in the club’s history in the summer of 2023.
The Hatters’ goal, of course, is to somehow manage to stay in the league. However, it is clear to all concerned that this undertaking will be difficult. However, after seven of 38 league games, the club from the East of England region is still in a non-relegation position.
Still winless in three PL home matches
With just four points from a possible 21, Luton Town are only just above the drop zone because of a better goal difference than fellow promoted Burnley. However, they suffered a 2-1 home defeat to the Clarets at Kenilworth Road on Tuesday night. The promoted side thus remained winless in their third Premier League home game (one draw, two defeats).
The Hatters, meanwhile, were able to clinch their first win at Liverpool last weekend. Rob Edwards’ side won 2-1 at Everton FC to build on their 1-1 draw with Wolverhampton.
Won only one of last ten home games against London clubs
With its small budget, the promoted team has not been able to keep up with the big clubs so far. As a result, the odds are clearly against Luton against Tottenham, who have only won one of their last ten home games against London teams (five draws, four defeats).
The Hatters also need to improve both offensively, scoring just six goals in seven PL games, and defensively, conceding 14 goals in seven games – an average of two goals conceded per league game.
Predicted Luton line-up:
Tottenham – Statistics & current form
Tottenham Hotspur finished the 2022/23 season in only eighth place in the Premier League, failing to qualify for international competition again. A small upheaval followed, in the course of which Harry Kane, among others, was let go to the Bundesliga after a tough struggle.
The Lilywhites’ strong start to the season under new coach Ange Postecoglou is all the more remarkable. The players from north London are unbeaten in eight PL games (six wins, two draws). That is the longest active streak of any team in England’s top division.
Won twelve of last 14 Premier League games against promoted sides
This also makes Spurs the only Premier League team apart from Arsenal not to have lost a league game in the 2023/24 season (five wins, two draws). The 17 points from a possible 21 are currently enough for second place behind Manchester City (18).
At least for a short time, the Lilywhites could now take over the top of the table with an away win at Kenilworth Road. Their strong record against promoted teams also suggests that Luton’s betting on an away win against Tottenham will pay off. Spurs have lost only one of their last 14 league games against promoted teams (twelve wins, one draw).
Have scored 17 goals in seven matches
On a positive note, the gap left in the attack by the departure of Harry Kane has been less than feared. Or to put it another way: Heung-min Son in particular is making the departure of the England international almost forgettable at the moment. The South Korean has already scored six goals in seven Premier League games.
In total, the Lilywhites already have 17 goals, making them the fourth-best attack in the Premier League behind Brighton (19), Aston Villa and Newcastle (18 each). Accordingly, there is a good chance that the expected away win at Luton will be more than a one-goal victory.
Predicted Tottenham line-up:
Luton – Tottenham Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 22 – 25 – 33
There have been a total of 80 meetings between the two teams so far and with 33 wins the Spurs lead the direct comparison, who are also currently unbeaten in nine meetings with the Hatters (five wins, four draws). However, the head-to-head comparison is not overly relevant. The last competitive match between the two teams dates back to March 1992.
Luton – Tottenham Tip
The betting odds on Luton against Tottenham are clearly in favour of the visitors from London. Not only is the promoted side from the East of England region still winless in three Premier League games at home to Kenilworth Road (one draw, two defeats), but the Hatters have also found it particularly difficult against teams from the capital. At home, Luton have won just one of their last ten home games against London teams (five draws, four defeats).
The prediction for Luton against Tottenham is clearly leaning towards an away win for the Lilywhites, who have not lost in eight PL games (six wins, two draws). Combine tip 2 with a small over-bet
