Can LFC get the job done?

It has been over 15 years since Luton Town and Liverpool Football Club last faced each other in a competitive match. In the third round of the FA Cup, the Hatters even forced a replay thanks to a 1-1 draw in front of their home crowd, in which the Reds, led by three-goal scorer Steven Gerrard, eventually came out on top 5-0. So next Sunday there will be a revival in the Premier League, which under normal circumstances should once again be dominated by the Reds.

In terms of form and quality, these clubs are worlds apart. As expected, the surprise promotion contenders from the East of England find themselves in a relegation spot after ten matchdays, while LFC are in fourth place and in the thick of the race for the championship. It would therefore be a sensation if the betting tip on an away win for the favorites between Luton and Liverpool does not come true on Sunday. If you want to back the underdog, you can currently get a 12.00.

on the three-way market.

The fact that the visitors from the Beatles city are playing their fifth competitive game in the last 14 days at the weekend could also provide a mini-opportunity for the home team. However, as Jürgen Klopp has been able to manage the workload fairly well and rotate his squad, it is very unlikely that the home side will win a point in the Luton v Liverpool game. Instead, the primary question is how confident LFC’s expected success will be and which potential bets contain value

Luton – Statistics & current form

Only ten matchdays have passed in the English top flight and Luton Town’s promotion euphoria has already largely evaporated. Although fans, officials and players are still looking forward to every single league game, the Hatters have yet to prove their worth in terms of results. With a yield of one win, two draws and seven defeats, they are in third-last place in the standings. Nevertheless, they are only one point off the safety zone.

However, the truth is that four of the last five league defeats have been by exactly one goal and only one match involving coach Rob Edwards’ side has seen more than four goals scored. In some cases, therefore, it was nuances that were missing to bag a better result. In soccer parlance, one could also speak of a lesson that the promoted team is paying with worrying regularity. Against this backdrop, the odds on an away win between Luton and Liverpool are virtually without alternative, although it is not necessarily to be expected that the hosts will go down completely

Will Luton score again in the closing stages?

However, the results at home have been problematic. In four home games, they have only managed a single point (1:1 against Wolverhampton). However, the team also suffered narrow defeats against Tottenham (0:1), Burnley (1:2) and West Ham (1:2), in which the number of goals conceded was also limited. Despite this, Edwards’ side have yet to keep a clean sheet in the first ten matchdays. After Leicester City in 1994, Luton could become only the second promoted side in Premier League history to fail to keep a clean sheet in any of their first eleven matches.

It must also be questioned whether the qualitatively inferior Hatters will even manage to score a goal of their own on Sunday. Six of their nine goals so far this season have been scored in the last ten minutes of each match. The only annoying thing is that LFC have only conceded two of their last 31 goals after 80 minutes and should certainly be warned of the newcomer’s strength. In our opinion, it is definitely worth taking a closer look at a prediction for a “too-nil” away win for the Reds between Luton and Liverpool

Luton’s predicted line-up:

Liverpool – Statistics & current form

Liverpool Football Club have played 15 competitive matches in three different competitions so far this season. The Reds have come out on top in twelve of them. The only defeat came in the unfortunate 2-1 draw against leaders Tottenham, when Klopp’s team had a goal disallowed and Joel Matip scored an own goal with virtually the last action to decide the game. The bottom line is that the 2020 champions have had a very solid 2023/24 season at the moment.

Especially after the last international break, the current fourth-placed team did not show any weaknesses at all. In the Premier League, there were two commanding wins without conceding a goal against Everton and Nottingham, in the Europa League their own ambitions were once again underlined with a 5:1 victory over Toulouse and Mo Salah & Co. also advanced to the quarter-finals of the EFL Cup thanks to a 2:1 win at Bournemouth.

Is LFC’s new-found maturity paying off for the promoted side?

The momentum is definitely on the side of the championship contenders, who have lost just one of their last 21 Premier League matches (14 wins, six draws) and will be looking to make a leap up the table at the weekend. This is not out of the question, as their direct rivals Arsenal (vs. Newcastle) and Tottenham (vs. Chelsea) have very difficult tasks ahead of them.

Because the odds on an away win in the Luton vs. Liverpool duel are of course no value on the three-way market, we have gone in search of a corresponding add-on. We have already indicated the potential “to-nil”. A bet on the under 4.5 is also exciting, especially as a maximum of four goals were scored in all seven of LFC’s PL victories. Only in the aforementioned 5-1 win over Toulouse were Klopp’s charges able to score more than three goals.

With the next competitive game coming up on Thursday and the fourth-placed team in the table playing their fifth match in 14 days, it would only be human to slow down a little and switch to a kind of administration mode when they take an early lead. If you believe that the favorites will only take control of the match after the break, you can bet on interesting top odds of 1.90 that more goals will be scored in the second half than in the first half. This would be supported by the fact that such a bet would have gone through in eight out of ten matches involving Luton.

Predicted Liverpool line-up:

Luton – Liverpool head-to-head comparison / H2H record

38 meetings have been played between Luton and Liverpool at competitive level. With 18 wins, 13 draws and only seven defeats, LFC clearly lead the direct comparison. The Reds have lost just one of their last ten matches against the Hatters in all competitions, but have failed to win any of their last four away league matches at Luton. However, this statistic has no bearing on the upcoming encounter, as the last head-to-head league meetings date back to the early 1990s, when the majority of Sunday’s protagonists had not even seen the light of day.

Luton – Liverpool tip

As always when Luton Town are in action in the Premier League this season, there is a (perceived) world of difference between the sensational newcomers and their opponents. On Sunday between Luton and Liverpool, the betting odds also speak a very clear language in favor of the fourth-placed team in the table, who won twelve out of 15 competitive matches in 2023/24, but have only managed to score more than three goals of their own once so far.

It should also be noted that the majority of the home team’s defeats have been relatively close and the Hatters have yet to suffer a resounding defeat, especially at home. As the visitors from the Beatles’ city are also coming off their second consecutive English week and will certainly have some fatigue in their legs, it cannot be ruled out that Klopp’s team will put in more effort than expected in the PL matchday 11

Nonetheless, in the Luton v Liverpool game, we recommend betting on the Reds to come out on top and a maximum of four goals to be scored during the match. A corresponding bet would have been correct for all seven of LFC’s PL victories. The 1.82 on offer, which can also be played at Betano taking into account the Betano bonus for new customers, is in an acceptable odds range and is therefore worth a confident bet of seven units to us.