Can the Hatters upset the Champions League winners?
For a long time Chelsea were in the fight for the championship together with Manchester City and Liverpool. For nine matchdays, the Blues even led the Premier League table. In the meantime, however, the Tuchel eleven is 16 points off first place. The Pensioners did win the FIFA Club World Cup. On Sunday, however, they lost the final of the EFL Cup against Liverpool and suffered the next setback.
Now the Blues fight away at Luton Town for a place in the quarter-finals of the FA Cup. At least in the eyes of the bookmakers, the visit of the third-placed team in the Premier League to the Kenilworth Road Stadium is a clear-cut number. In the run-up to the clash between Luton and Chelsea, the odds are clearly in favour of the Blues.
However, the Hatters have been in good form recently. Luton Town have only lost two of their last 15 competitive games (eleven wins, two draws), which would currently qualify the team from Bedfordshire for the promotion play-offs to the Premier League. Of course, the Hatters now face a completely different calibre of opponent than in the Championship. Nevertheless, the second division club is certainly capable of making it halfway exciting.
Luton – Statistics & current form
Luton Town, founded in 1885, have spent a total of 18 seasons in England’s top flight. Since the founding of the Premier League, however, the Hatters have never again been in the top flight.
Instead, the men from Bedfordshire were relegated to the Conference National in the summer of 2009 after a record 30-point deduction, the first time they had been out of the English Football League since 1920.
In the FA Cup last 16 for the first time in nine years
Meanwhile, Luton Town are back in the Championship for the third year running, where the East English side have gone from strength to strength under manager Nathan Jones. After staying 19th in the table, they finished twelfth last summer and are now sixth in the table with hopes of making the promotion play-offs.
At the same time, the Hatters won their ticket to the 5th round of the FA Cup for the first time in nine years, for which they did not have to eliminate any heavyweights with fourth division Harrogate Town (4:0) and third division Cambridge United (3:0).
Only two defeats in last 15 competitive games
Never the less, the sixth-placed team in the Championship goes into the clash with the Blues in good form. The Jones eleven have won eleven of their last 15 games (two wins, two draws), with the Hatters’ defence in particular being their showpiece.
They have only conceded 37 goals in 33 league games. In view of this performance data, the conditions for Luton to win against Chelsea with a maximum difference of one goal are definitely in place.
Predicted Luton line-up:
Steer – Naismith – Lockyer – Burke – Osho – Bell – Lansbury – Campbell – Bree – Adebayo – Cornick
Last matches played by Luton:
Championship
02/26 2022 – Luton 1 – 0 Derby
02/23 2022 – Stoke 1 – 2 Luton
02/19 2022 – Luton 2 – 0 West Bromwich Albion
02/12 2022 – Birmingham 3 – 0 Luton
02/08 2022 – Luton 2 – 1 Barnsley
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
Last summer, Chelsea FC crowned themselves European champions. Under Thomas Tuchel, the Blues won their second trophy after 2012 and were able to add to this triumph with both the UEFA Super Cup 2021 and the FIFA Club World Cup.
Accordingly, there were high hopes among the pensioners that they would be able to play a leading role in the fight for the championship again in the new season. However, since the Tuchel eleven lost the top spot in the table to Manchester City on matchday 15, the gap to first place has grown to 16 points.
Never-ending annoying noise from outside
More and more important points were lost against comparatively small opponents. Most recently, the Blues were unable to get more than a draw against Brighton twice around the turn of the year. Added to this are constant disturbing noises from outside.
In the winter break, it was the intention of goal-scorer Romelu Lukaku to move. Currently, the withdrawal of former Russian governor Roman Abramovich is making for troubled times. To make matters worse, Thomas Tuchel then substituted Kepa in the EFL Cup final against Liverpool shortly before the penalty shoot-out, the man who let through all eleven of his opponents’ penalties and himself missed the decisive attempt from the spot.
Won six of last seven competitive games
While the Blues travel to Kenilworth Road on the back foot, a shutout would be another setback. Nevertheless, there is no reason to talk of a crisis in view of the enormous quality across the board and the generally good results.
After all, the Londoners won all six of their competitive games before Sunday’s penalty shootout loss in the EFL Cup final, which is why they are clear favourites now too.
Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Mendy – Alonso – Rüdiger – Silva – Sarr – Azpilicueta – Kovacic – Kanté – Pulisic – Ziyech – Havertz
Last matches played by Chelsea:
Carabao Cup
02/27 2022 – Chelsea London (10)0 – 0(11) Liverpool FC
Champions League Final
02/22 2022 – Chelsea London 2 – 0 Lille
Premier League
02/19 2022 – Crystal Palace 0 – 1 Chelsea London
Cup for clubs
02/12 2022 – Chelsea London 2 – 1 Palmeiras
02/09 2022 – Al Hilal 0 – 1 Chelsea London
Luton – Chelsea Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Head to head: 14 – 12 – 18
There have been a total of 44 meetings between the two teams and the record reads closer than one might expect. It should be noted, however, that only one duel dates back to the current millennium. Chelsea beat Luton last year in the FA Cup with 3:1.
Luton – Chelsea Tip
The prediction for Luton against Chelsea goes clearly in the direction of the visitors, who, however, had to cope with a sporting setback in the lost EFL Cup final on Sunday. At the same time, the Abramovich departure is also causing uneasy times, which is why the guest game at an in-form second division side, who have won 11 of their last 15 competitive games, is also likely to be decided on psychology.
We see the greatest value in betting on the home side with an Asian handicap of +1.5, which not only includes any surprise, but also an away win for the Londoners with a maximum goal difference. Only one of the Blues’ last five competitive victories has been by more than a goal difference
