Relegation battle at its best!

The sixth matchday awaits with a supposed relegation thriller. At the start of the league, the three promoted teams find themselves in (or just ahead of) the three relegation places. If this is not to be a preview of the coming Championship season, points are urgently needed. The bookmakers are not entirely clear what to assume. Accordingly, the betting odds are relatively even for Luton against Burnley.

The favourite in this 6-point game seems to be the guest from Turf Moor. At least when the financial parameters are taken into account. The Hatters’ just under 85 million market value is by far the last place in this ranking. Even fellow promoted Sheffield and Burnley are easily above the 100 million mark. As a result, Luton are also considered underdogs against Burnley in the predictions.

The start of the season does not allow any clear conclusions. Both opponents have few points and a clearly negative goal difference. The Hatter are four goals and three points above the Clarets in the table. What is clear, however, is that points are needed. In the shark tank that is the Premier League, the train will otherwise leave sooner and the opponents will not be any easier. That’s probably why the odds are so close for Luton against Burnley.

Luton – Statistics & current form

The Hatters’ fans probably already know the old Britpop hit “walking on sunshine” by heart. No wonder, it’s a special time to make the pilgrimage to Kenilworth Road. First-time Premier League involvement is a big trip. Thankfully, the captain is still on board.

The Coach

Rob Edwards is probably feeling much the same as the fans. As a player, he was able to breathe in the high air with Wolves and Aston Villa, among others. That he can now do the same as a coach with the Hatters is nothing short of a miracle. The modest beginnings with Telford and Forest Green Rovers laid the foundation for the present. With little financial means and a little more creativity, he solved his tasks so far with flying colours. With his favoured 3-4-1-2, he also shows tactical flexibility time and again. His staff needs that, too.

The Squad

The hosts are an unusual mix in the English top flight. They are relatively old (27.0), relatively few (25 players) and very cheap (85.3m market value). They were predicted to be THE first team to be relegated. Yet there are some well-known names in the squad.

With Tim Krul (former Newcastle) and Ross Barkley (former Everton and Chelsea), there are two Premier League-tested players on the pitch. The rest, however, are mainly known for their engagements in the lower leagues or are very young. This may also be the reason why Luton against Burnley are considered underdogs by many picks.

The opener

The start to the season hasn’t really taken the wind out of the sails of the doubters. Exactly one draw and one win came out of six games. The goal difference of 5:12 doesn’t look very festive either. But there is a little light at the end of the tunnel. The results got better and better (1:4, 0:3, 1:2, 0:1, 1:1, 2:1).

Considering the opening programme (Brighton, Chelsea, WHU, Fulham, Wolves, Everton), that’s no wonder, but it’s also a reason for hope. It was almost to be expected that not much would be gained from the first four games. The question now will be what is possible with an opponent within striking distance.

Predicted Luton line-up:
Kaminski – Burke, Lockyer, Bell – Kabore, Mpanzu, Nakamba, Doughty – Brown, Ogbene – Morris

Burnley – Statistics & current form

Turf Moor is first class once again. That in itself is probably not a sensation. For the first time in living memory, however, the coach who has achieved this is not Sean Dyche.

The Coach

Vincent Kompany actually needs little introduction. As an active player, he wore the jerseys of Anderlecht, HSV and Manchester City. He won titles, scored goals and prevented at least as many. As a pupil under Pep Guardiola, he took the opportunity to learn.

He then tried his hand on the sidelines at Anderlecht and Burnley. The latter in particular became a success story. The Clarets’ promotion was more or less a formality after a good half of the season. Now the next big test awaits. Staying in the league!

The squad

A lot of money was spent on this. The new arrivals cost over 110 million. But those who are now waiting for hammer transfers are mistaken. In the style of Belgian football, relatively cheap purchases are made and refined.

Zeki Amdouni (Basel), James Trafford (ManCity U21), Aaron Ramsey (Aston Villa U21) and Jordan Beyer (Mönchengladbach) are the king transfers. The latter, at 23, is the Methuselah of this list. So it’s the quality and the collective, rather than the big names, that should do the trick.

The kick-off

The strategy sounds appealing. But so far it has been relatively fruitless. Like the hosts, they have lost four games in five starts. With 4:15 goals, the Clarets are even worse off than Luton. However, a look at the results gives hope. The previous opponents were ManCity (0:3), Aston Villa (1:3), Spurs (2:5), Forest (1:1), ManU (0:1) and Newcastle (0:2).

Measured against the current balance of power in the league, a point was thus picked up at a direct competitor. The other games were recorded with zero points. The important thing now is to score when the sticks aren’t coming in quite so thick.

Predicted Burnley line-up:
Trafford – Roberts, Al Dakhil, Beyer, Taylor – Cullen, Ramsey – Koleosho, Brownhill, Berge – Amdouni

Luton – Burnley Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

This match is a first. In the Premier League, there has never been this duel. In the lower divisions, however, it has happened time and again. The hosts even have a slight lead.

In the past ten meetings, Luton have won four and Burnley three. So it’s pretty close there as well. With the explosive nature of the table, it becomes a nail-biter at the bottom of the table. The betting shops see, narrowly but nevertheless, the visitors having the advantage in Luton v Burnley in the predictions.

Luton – Burnley Tip

The starting position is clear. Nobody can lose this duel. However, Burnley probably have the greater pressure. Both in terms of market value and the coach, the trump cards are on the side of the Clarets. Only the factor home game makes it a “must win” scenario for the Hatters.

Overall, however, Luton are considered outsiders against Burnley by most oddsmakers. Due to the rather shaky performances of the back teams so far, a goal bet like Bet-at-home is recommended. To nil seems rather unlikely.

The course of the season so far has only brought this to bear to a limited extent, but overall Burnley seem to have the better chances of survival. That’s partly down to the club having played at this level before. Much more important, however, is the personnel of the coach.

As one of Pep Guardiola’s star pupils, he has learned many valuable lessons. He can now impart this wisdom to his squad in the fight against relegation. That helps enormously. That’s why we believe in tip 2 for Luton against Burnley