Will LFC end the Villarreal fairytale?
Many German football fans had hoped for a clash between Julian Nagelsmann and Jürgen Klopp in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals. But because Bayern failed to beat Spanish surprise team Villarreal in the quarter-finals, the Reds are now the top favourites to win the trophy in the top flight. The bookmakers believe it is unlikely that the second-placed team in the Premier League will be able to break down Emery’s team.
If we look at the odds on offer ahead of Wednesday night’s first leg between Liverpool and Villarreal, the clear favourites are further underlined. Should the Scousers reach the final on 28 May at the Stade de France in Paris as expected, just 1.16 is offered for this. The odds on LFC to win the first match at Anfield Road are not particularly high either. However, the Spaniards should not be underestimated by any means.
Incidentally, Jürgen Klopp, who lost the 2016 Europa League final with his Liverpool side against Sevilla FC, coached by Unai Emery, with a 3-1 defeat, also knows this. The Basque has already played five matches against the Reds in a responsible coaching position, four of them with Arsenal.
Interesting: In these five matches, a total of 26 goals were scored, i.e. an average of more than five goals per match. However, it would be presumptuous to conclude from this that a prediction of many goals in the course of the game will pay off in Liverpool’s clash against Villarreal on Wednesday evening. Instead, Mo Salah and Co. may be in for a test of patience against a deep visitors’ side that will be keen to keep a clean sheet for as long as possible.
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
Liverpool Football Club are on their way to a historic season. A few weeks before the end of this season, the Reds still have the chance to win four titles. Jürgen Klopp’s team has already won the League Cup, the Reds will meet Chelsea in the FA Cup final and the gap to leaders Manchester City in the Premier League is just one point. The quadruple is just as possible as failure in the three remaining competitions in which the cult club is still represented.
Given their current form, it is nevertheless understandable that Liverpool are clear favourites against Villarreal according to the odds. LFC have played 26 competitive games in the 2022 calendar year, losing only one. That only defeat also dates back to the round of 16 second leg against Inter Milan (0:1), which was rendered obsolete by the 2:0 victory in the first leg. Twelve wins from their last 13 PL games underpin the impressive consistency shown by the 2020 champions at national level.
Liverpool aim to lay the foundations at home
It is also worth noting that this is the twelfth time Liverpool have reached a European semi-final. In nine of the previous eleven cases, they made it to the title game. However, as the odds on the favourite to progress do not include any value, we have to get a little more creative with our betting recommendation. An exciting bet between Liverpool and Villarreal is a home win without conceding a goal, which can be backed up with some real statistics.
The Reds have kept their clean sheet in 15 of the 26 games after the turn of the year. In seven of the last eight matches in the English top flight, the Reds also kept a defensive zero. Combined with the tactical background that Klopp’s team will be in control of possession and that Villarreal already found it extremely difficult to get into attacking transitional play at the Allianz Arena in Munich, it seems anything but unlikely that the title aspirants will be able to claim a clean sheet in the first leg.
In terms of personnel, the German coach can almost draw from a full complement. The former Dortmund man had to do without Roberto Firmino for the 2-0 win over Everton in the Merseyside derby at the weekend. But the Brazilian should be ready for action by Wednesday. But offensively, the hopes rest more on the shoulders of Mo Salah, who has already scored eight goals in the CL season so far.
Only in 2017/18 did he score more often (ten times) in the same season. The Egyptian is three goals away from tying Sergio Aguero and Didier Drogba for the most goals scored in the CL for English clubs.
Liverpool’s likely line-up:
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Henderson, Fabinho, Thiago; Salah, Mane, Diaz
Last matches played by Liverpool:
Premier League
24/04/2022 – Liverpool FC 2 – 0 Everton
20/04/2022 – Liverpool FC 4 – 0 Manchester United
FA Cup
16/04/2022 – Manchester City 2 – 3 Liverpool FC
Champions League Final
14/04/2022 – Liverpool FC 3 – 3 Benfica
Premier League
10/04/2022 – Manchester City 2 – 2 Liverpool FC
Villarreal – Statistics & current form
Unai Emery is a phenomenon. The Basque has already coached in four countries and celebrated various titles. The 50-year-old has won the Europa League four times. Last year, he led Villarreal to triumph in the second most important European club competition and thus automatically into the Champions League group stage in 2021/22. Nobody would have expected that we would still be reporting on the “yellow submarine” in the top flight at the end of April.
Once again, however, Emery was able to prove that he is an absolute expert on knockout rounds in international competition. Since the start of the 2009/10 season, the ex-coach of Paris St. Germain or Arsenal FC has qualified for the next round with his clubs in 31 of 37 knockout pairings. The progression rate of 84% is only surpassed by a certain Zinedine Zidane, who ensured progression in 14 out of 16 cases (88%).
How strong is Villarreal really?
With all the justified praise that the Spanish club, which enjoys similar sympathies at home as SC Freiburg in Germany, is receiving for the current European Cup season, it should not be neglected that the “Yellow Submarine” has not won any of its last eight away games in England (three draws, five defeats). Villarreal already lost out to Manchester United at Old Trafford in the preliminary round.
Moreover, the visitors from the province of Castellón are much weaker in terms of quality than the Reds. Neither Juventus nor FC Bayern were able to produce their best performance in the four previous knockout matches. That is likely to change on Wednesday evening, so it seems questionable whether the Spaniards can once again maintain their defensive bulwark. On a positive note, seven points have come out of the last three La Liga games, even though the focus is clearly on the top flight.
Like his opposite number Jürgen Klopp, Unai Emery can also call on all his key players. Only ex-Liverpool player Alberto Moreno will miss the clash against his former employers due to injury. The English side will have to watch out for Dani Parejo, Gerardo Moreno and Arnaut Danjuma, who caught Bayern cold in the first leg and was still under contract with English second division side Bournemouth last year.
Predicted Villarreal line-up:
Rulli; Foyth, Albiol, Torres, Estupinan; Parejo, Coquelin, Capoue; Lo Celso; Chukwueze, Danjuma
Last matches played by Villarreal:
La Liga
20/04/2022 – Villarreal FC 2 – 0 Valencia
17/04/2022 – Getafe 1 – 2 Villarreal FC
Champions League Final
13/04/2022 – Bayern Munich 1 – 1 FC Villarreal
La Liga
09/04/2022 – Villarreal FC 1 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
Champions League Final
07/04/2022 – FC Villarreal 1 – 0 Bayern Munich
Liverpool – Villarreal Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
2015/2016 the only two direct duels between these teams took place. Both teams were able to win their home match in the semi-finals of the Europa League. But because Villarreal only won 1:0, while the Reds even had the upper hand in the second leg with 3:0, the English entered the final, but lost there, as already mentioned, to Sevilla FC and Unai Emery with 1:3. Incidentally, in five attempts for the Basque coach against Jürgen Klopp, it was the only victory. There was also a draw and three defeats.
Liverpool – Villarreal tip
Four teams are still in contention for the UEFA Champions League trophy. Ahead of the semi-finals, which take place on Wednesday and Thursday, the Reds are considered to have the best chance of winning it all. There are many indications that an all-English clash between Premier League title contenders Liverpool and Manchester City will take place at the end of May.
Before that, however, coach Jürgen Klopp’s team must complete the compulsory task against the Bayern vanquishers. However, according to the Liverpool vs Villarreal betting odds, it would be very surprising if LFC were to lose in the first leg in front of their home crowd. The Scousers are heavily favoured in the three-way market. And rightly so, judging by the results in the 2022 calendar year.
In our eyes, it is even likely that the favourites will come out on top without conceding a goal. The Spaniards, who rely on counter-attacks, will have fewer opportunities to strike against the Reds’ quick defensive chain than they did against Juve or FCB. As the home side have also won 15 of their 26 competitive games since the turn of the year, we can well imagine betting on a home win between Liverpool and Villarreal, including a clean sheet.
