Solid home win for the Reds?
Liverpool FC are certainly one of the most attractive teams in England this season. In purely statistical terms, no other club has scored more times in the first twelve matchdays in the Premier League than Jürgen Klopp’s team. On Saturday afternoon, the Saints could be in line for another big win when they make a flying visit to Anfield Road.
Southerners have been unable to win on Merseyside in recent years. Saints have not won a league game at Anfield since 2013. In fact, the most recent four guest games were all lost with a cumulative goal difference of 0:12. The omens could hardly be worse from the point of view of Hasenhüttl’s charges. Liverpool are the clear favourites against Southampton according to the odds.
This assessment is not only based on the strength of the Reds, but also on the weakness of the Saints away from home, who have only managed two wins away from home in the entire 2021 calendar year. So the main question is how big a win will the hosts get on Saturday afternoon? Between Liverpool and Southampton, the prediction of a handicap win is therefore a popular betting option.
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
15 points from five games, 15 goals scored and a ten-point lead over the runners-up – what LFC have delivered so far in the supposed “Group of Death” with Atletico Madrid, AC Milan and FC Porto is hard to top in terms of dominance. In total, the Reds have even more points on their account than the other three teams together. Their dominance was also underlined on Wednesday with a 2-0 home win against Porto.
In the Premier League, on the other hand, Klopp’s team has had one or two lapses. Seven wins from twelve games is still a remarkable figure, but the German coach has also had to settle for four draws. The only defeat came in a 3-2 loss at West Ham.
Next gala performance by Mo Salah?
In the home game against the Saints, however, everything points to the third-placed team in the table not slipping anything but recording an unchallenged success. One of the arguments in favour of this thesis is the outstanding attack, which has already scored 35 goals, i.e. an average of almost three goals per game, and has always been able to score at least one goal in the last 22 Premier League games (!). A little fun fact on the side: Both in the first half and in the second half, the Reds scored more goals than their opponents.
Another interesting and quite meaningful statistic relates to the kick-off time. The 2020 champions have remained unbeaten on the past 25 Saturdays when they took to the pitch at 16:00 German time. In that period, 22 wins have been matched by only three draws. In 2015, the last Saturday afternoon match was lost in front of a home crowd.
Finally, anyone who has not yet found enough reasons to bet on a fairly clear home win between Liverpool and Southampton should take a look at the stats of a certain Mo Salah. The Egyptian, who will play for his country in the African Championship in January, has 17 (!) scorer points (eleven goals, six assists) in twelve PL games. The exceptional attacker only failed to score in three of the 17 competitive matches. For a Salah brace on Saturday, more than four times the stake can be dusted off.
Predicted Liverpool line-up:
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson; Henderson, Fabinho, Thiago; Salah, Jota, Mane
Last matches played by Liverpool:
Champions League Grp. B
11/24 2021 – Liverpool FC 2 – 0 FC Porto
Premier League
11/20 2021 – Liverpool FC 4 – 0 Arsenal London
11/07 2021 – West Ham 3 – 2 Liverpool FC
Champions League Grp. B
11/03 2021 – Liverpool FC 2 – 0 Atletico Madrid
10/30 2021 – Liverpool FC 2 – 2 Brighton
Southampton – Statistics & current form
Once again, Southampton FC can’t seem to get beyond the role of a “grey mouse” in the English top flight this season. While there was a feeling that Ralph Hasenhüttl’s team was riding a wave of success with ten points from four games between mid-October and mid-November, the trend pointed downwards again in the previous week. They suffered an avoidable 2-1 defeat at bottom side Norwich City,
It is doubtful whether the “Saints” will be able to take anything home in Liverpool, especially as the underdogs have not won any of their last seven games at Anfield Road (two draws, five defeats) and, as already mentioned, have recently lost four in a row at the Reds’ football temple without scoring a goal of their own.
So, what do you think?
Southampton a welcome guest on the island
But that’s not all, because in general the away weakness is a big problem for Hasenhüttl’s eleven. In the calendar year 2021, 13 of the 17 away games were lost. A total of 43 goals were conceded – 2.5 on average per match. In both rankings, the southerners thus occupy last place in the Premier League comparison.
In our eyes, it is therefore difficult to imagine that the underdogs can seriously threaten the English top club. Instead, we think that even a heavy defeat for the visitors is anything but unlikely and are therefore aiming for a home win with at least a two-goal difference in the clash between Liverpool and Southampton.
The former RB Leipzig coach will definitely have to do without Jack Stephens. Moussa Djenepo and Stuart Armstrong are also doubtful. His namesake Adam Armstrong, on the other hand, is an integral part of the first eleven. The 24-year-old has always been involved in a goal in his last three league games (one goal, two assists) and is therefore in arguably the best form of his young footballing life.
Predicted Southampton line-up:
McCarthy; Livramento, Salisu, Bednarek, Walker-Peters; Redmond, Ward-Prowse, Romeu, Elyounoussi; Adams, Armstrong
Last matches played by Southampton:
Premier League
11/20 2021 – Norwich 2 – 1 Southampton
11/05 2021 – Southampton 1 – 0 Aston Villa
10/30 2021 – Watford 0 – 1 Southampton
Carabao Cup
10/26 2021 – Chelsea London (4)1 – 1(3) Southampton
Premier League
10/23 2021 – Southampton 2 – 2 Burnley
Liverpool – Southampton Direct comparison / H2H record
88 Matches have already been played between the two teams in the highest English division. Liverpool clearly lead the direct comparison with 45 wins compared to 21 draws and 22 defeats. Far more interesting, however, is the series of now seven Reds victories from the past eight Premier League matches. The four consecutive home wins by 12-0 goals also serve as a suitable blueprint for the upcoming clash, especially as a handicap bet would have gone through in favour of LFC (-1) in each of the four aforementioned matches.
Liverpool – Southampton Tip
Liverpool FC have their next must-win game in the race for the English Championship on Saturday afternoon. At home, the Klopp eleven will face the Saints. The Saints, who lost 2-1 to bottom side Norwich City and have lost 13 of 17 away games in the PL this calendar year.
Against this background, it is perfectly understandable that lower betting odds are offered on a home win between Liverpool and Southampton. The Reds are overwhelming favourites, especially if Salah, Mané and Co. are as strong and efficient as they were in the previous week’s 4-0 win at home against Arsenal or the 2-0 win against FC Porto in the top flight.
Because LFC have won their last four home games against the “Saints” by two goals or more, and because the differences in quality between the two teams cannot be ignored, we think it is extremely likely that betting on a -1 handicap win for the home side in this weekend’s clash between Liverpool and Southampton will pay off as well.
A confident bet by one’s own standards is absolutely justifiable given the statistics and figures listed. Those looking for higher odds can possibly combine the host’s win with a Salah goal or the double HT1/FT1 result.
