Are the Reds taking revenge for the 2022 final defeat?
The draw for the Champions League round of 16 brought some interesting pairings. Perhaps the biggest highlight match, however, is the rematch of last year’s final between Liverpool and Real Madrid. In 2022, the royals won 1-0 and lifted the trophy for the eighth time in the top flight. Jürgen Klopp, meanwhile, missed out on a second title with his Reds after 2019.
In this season’s last 16, the cards will now be reshuffled, although ahead of Liverpool’s first leg against Real Madrid, the betting on the English side progressing is once again seen as slightly less likely.
The main reason for this assessment is certainly LFC’s disappointing performance in the Premier League to date. However, it is also clear that Mo Salah and Co. are always capable of excelling – especially at Anfield Road, of course.
Apart from that, the Liverpool vs. Real Madrid prediction should not ignore the fact that the Galacticos from the Spanish capital are still a little behind their own standards in the 2022/23 season. The Ancelotti team is currently clearly behind in the La Liga title race.
The Madrilenians are also far from being in top form at the moment. So we can expect a duel of equals in which, in all likelihood, the form of the day will be decisive. Logically, the greater pressure is on the shoulders of the home side. The eagerly awaited match will kick off at 21:00 on Tuesday evening and can be watched live on DAZN.
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
Just in time for their return to the international stage, Liverpool Football Club seem to be gradually catching on in the domestic Premier League. After only one point from the first four games in the new football year at league level and the Reds conceding not only three defeats but also exactly three goals, the form curve has recently shown an upward trend again.
In the Merseyside derby at home against Everton, Liverpool won 2-0. Last Saturday, they also won the important away game at Newcastle in a very convincing manner with 2-0. The Klopp team moved up to eighth place in the standings and is only seven points off the last Champions League spot, but at the same time has two games in hand. The hope of also being represented in the top flight in 2023/24 has returned.
Is Alisson switching back into CL mode?
Backed by renewed confidence from their last two games and a good CL group stage, when the Reds won all their final five matches after a 4-1 opening defeat to Napoli, the 2019 title holders will now be looking to pose problems for the defending champions. Those looking to back Liverpool to prevail against Real Madrid ahead of Tuesday night’s crucial first leg can pick up odds of 2.43 at the top.
From the home side’s point of view, the impressive defensive statistics at home to Anfield Road certainly give cause for hope. Keeper Alisson Becker has not conceded a goal in 13 of his 21 CL home games for the Reds. In the club history of the multiple English champions, only Pepe Reina has more clean sheets (21) in the most important international club competition than the Brazilian national team goalkeeper (19).
Liverpool build on home strength
The stability in front of their own fans, which is much more pronounced, can also be seen in the Premier League figures. Only nine of the 28 goals conceded were at home. Across all competitions, LFC have one defeat and eight clean sheets (!) from 16 home games this season. The odds on a win for the visitors should therefore be treated with caution ahead of Liverpool’s upcoming encounter against Real Madrid.
In addition to the well-functioning defence, at least in front of his own fans, Jürgen Klopp can of course also rely on the high individual quality in the offensive. Mo Salah scored most recently against Everton and, with 43 goals in the UEFA Champions League, is Africa’s second most successful attacker behind Didier Drogba (44). Darwin Nunez initiated the treble against the Magpies at the weekend and winter newcomer Cody Gakpo even scored in both said matches.
Last Liverpool matches:
Premier League
19/02/2023 – Newcastle 0 – 2 Liverpool FC
14/02/2023 – Liverpool FC 2 – 0 Everton
04/02/2023 – Wolverhampton 3 – 0 Liverpool FC
FA Cup
29/01/2023 – Brighton 2 – 1 FC Liverpool
Premier League
21/01/2023 – Liverpool FC 0 – 0 Chelsea FC
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
There is probably not a single football team on this planet that acts as ruthlessly as Real Madrid on the European stage. This was made abundantly clear once again last season. The royals lost a match in each of the round of 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals and still managed to reach the final. Several times it was last-minute goals or simply good phases within a match that saved the Madrilenians from elimination.
It will be exciting to see whether the necessary luck will also be with the Galactics in 2022/23. In any case, we would not make any predictions before the round of 16 clash between Liverpool and Real Madrid that the global club from the Spanish capital will win the most important club competition at international level for the 15th time.
Real especially with problems away
Compared to last year, when coach Carlo Ancelotti’s team was the measure of all things at least in the domestic La Liga and could rely on a Karim Benzema in top form, these two plus points are currently not present.
Real have already lost three of their seven league games in 2023 and are eight points behind their arch-rivals Barcelona. They have lost three of their last five La Liga away games. They also suffered a crushing defeat to the Catalans in the Super Coppa. The Madrid side are far from top form, despite their 2-0 win at Osasuna at the weekend.
No Benzema, no Party?
The same can be said for the aforementioned Karim Benzema. The Frenchman has not scored a single goal in his last five Champions League matches. By comparison, the 35-year-old scored ten (!) goals in his previous five matches in the top flight.
For the upcoming first leg at Anfield Road, the captain’s use does not seem entirely certain, as he was rested in the last league match and only worked individually on the pitch a day later. However, it is presumably purely a precautionary measure.
Regardless, coach Carlo Ancelotti, who lost three of seven away games at Anfield (3-3-1), will have to divide the offensive efforts among several shoulders anyway. Vinicius Jr. in particular is likely to play a leading role again, having been involved in as many as seven goals in his last eight CL away games.
Last matches of Real Madrid:
La Liga
19/02/2023 – Osasuna Pamplona 0 – 2 Real Madrid
16/02/2023 – Real Madrid 4 – 0 Elche
WM for clubs
12/02/2023 – Real Madrid 5 – 3 Al Hilal
09/02/2023 – Al Ahly SC 1 – 4 Real Madrid
La Liga
05/02/2023 – Mallorca 1 – 0 Real Madrid
Liverpool – Real Madrid Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Liverpool vs Real Madrid has been played nine times on a must-win basis. All nine matches have taken place in the UEFA Champions League and the UEFA Cup of Nations respectively. The traditional clubs have faced each other in finals on three occasions alone. Twice with the better end for Real Madrid. In 2022, too, the royals won the title with a 1-0 victory in the final in Paris. Vinicius Junior was the golden goal scorer.
The Galactics will be visiting Anfield Road for the fourth time, and their record in the football temple of the Beatles City is completely balanced with one win, one draw and one defeat. Nevertheless, it should be taken into account that Real Madrid have only won one of their last seven away matches at international level against English teams. Four of these seven games were lost. This is another reason why the odds on a home win between Liverpool and Real Madrid are a little more interesting.
Liverpool – Real Madrid Tip
While Eintracht fans will of course be keeping a close eye on their Frankfurt side’s home game against Napoli on Tuesday night, the two finalists from last season’s CL campaign will be facing each other at Anfield Road. In the first leg of the round of 16, Liverpool enjoy home advantage against Real Madrid. Betting odds of 2.43 make the Reds razor-thin favourites, although they have been without a win for five direct encounters against the royals.
For the upcoming match, however, we think a home win for Klopp’s eleven is not unlikely. For one thing, LFC are a force in front of their own fans. On the other hand, the Royals do not look quite as strong this season as they did in 2021/22, for example. Just in time for these highlight matches, the Reds also returned to winning ways and celebrated two important league victories, both without conceding a goal.
