Avenge the Reds for the first leg defeat?
The moods at Liverpool FC and SSC Napoli could hardly be more different at the moment.
While the English side continue to suffer a severe form crisis and even suffered a bitter home defeat at the weekend, the Neapolitans have not yet conceded a defeat in the current 2022/23 season. However, that does not make them favourites at Anfield Road.
If you want to bet on an away win between Liverpool and Napoli on Tuesday night, odds of 4.25 are offered at the top. Despite the impressive run of success and the clear 4:1 victory in the first leg, the Partenopei are even considered clear underdogs. Anyway, it is not our preferred approach to place a bet on the three-way market. Too many contingencies have to be taken into account.
For example, it is important to mention that this is actually a clash with no sporting significance. In purely mathematical terms, the Reds could still jump to first place in this group, but they would need a home victory with at least a four-goal lead to do so. However, the likelihood that a prediction on a landslide victory for the in-form Klopp team will pay off before the Liverpool vs Napoli match is extremely low. But at least both clubs have already secured their ticket to the last 16.
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
Jürgen Klopp will celebrate a round anniversary on Tuesday evening. For the 100th time in total, the ex-Dortmund man will be on the sidelines in a Champions League match. This makes the cult coach not only the lone record holder among German coaches, but also the first of the bunch to break the hundred mark.
However, the Liverpool master coach from 2020 has no real reason to be happy. The season so far has been too bad, the atmosphere at Anfield too tense. The football coach himself has also come in for a lot of criticism and is no longer seen as untouchable. The Reds’ slump hit new lows in the last two Premier League matches. They first lost 1-0 at bottom side Nottingham, before a 2-1 win over in-form Leeds on Saturday night saw them take all three points from the LFC football temple.
Get out of the slump – into the oasis of well-being
The Scousers are in a sobering ninth place in the domestic league and are already eight points behind the Champions League zone. Before the next thankless PL match at Tottenham is on the agenda next weekend, however, the Klopp team first heads to the feel-good oasis of the Champions League. In the top flight, the 2019 Cup winners have so far been far stronger than in the domestic arena.
Four times in a row, LFC left the pitch as winners at international level. 14 goals scored and only two conceded underline the dominant performances of the English, who nevertheless only occupy second place in Group A and would only enter the round of 16 as group winners in the event of a home victory with at least a four-goal difference. But we would definitely rule out such a scenario in the run-up to the top match in this pool.
Mo Salah must do it
We think it’s far more realistic to predict that a goal or two will be scored between Liverpool and Napoli. On average, the Reds have scored more than four goals per game in their four CL matches so far. Mohamed Salah and Co. have already scored 15 goals of their own. The Egyptian, meanwhile, is aiming for a new record in the top flight this season. The right-winger currently has 42 goals. Only a certain Didier Drogba has more goals to his name as an African player (44) than the LFC star, who is almost the sole entertainer in the injury-plagued attack at the moment.
Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota continue to miss out through injury, Bobby Firmino is in a performance slump, Darwin Nunez fluctuates between world and county class. Young Carvalho and Elliott cannot be expected to take responsibility at this difficult time. But since it is not always the nominal attackers who do it for the Reds, but also other players who like to get on the scoresheet, three goals in the course of the game against Napoli are definitely within the realm of possibility.
Predicted Liverpool line-up:
Alisson; Milner, Konate, Van Dijk, Tsimikas; Elliott, Henderson, Jones; Salah, Firmino, Carvalho
Last matches played by Liverpool:
Premier League
30/10/2022 – Liverpool FC 1 – 2 Leeds
Champions League Grp. A
27/10/2022 – Ajax Amsterdam 0 – 3 Liverpool FC
Premier League
22/10/2022 – Nottingham Forest 1 – 0 Liverpool FC
20/10/2022 – Liverpool FC 1 – 0 West Ham
16/10/2022 – Liverpool FC 1 – 0 Manchester City
Napoli – Statistics & current form
What do Paris St. Germain, Benfica Lisbon and SSC Napoli have in common? That’s right. All three of Europe’s top clubs are still completely unbeaten in the current season. Across all competitions, the players from the foot of Vesuvius have played 17 matches so far, won 15 of them and shared the points twice. The Partenopei have now won 13 (!) consecutive competitive matches. Impressive!
Of course, this monster series is to be maintained on Tuesday evening, even though the guest game at Anfield Road promises to be perhaps the most complicated task so far this season. However, it is also clear that the self-confident Gli Azzurri do not have to hide from their renowned opponents and that it is now their own self-image to play for a win on the island.
For Napoli, it’s all about maintaining their unbeaten streak
While they don’t necessarily need it in terms of the standings, as the Blues would still be group winners even in the event of a defeat with a three-goal difference, it would still be a huge thing for the Neapolitans to end the group stage with six wins from six matches. At the same time, SSC could win a European Cup away match in England for the first time in their own club history. So far, after eleven attempts, the record stands at three draws and eight defeats.
However, if you think it is too risky to play the high odds on a good result for the visitors between Liverpool and Napoli, you should, as already mentioned, turn to the goal market. Napoli have the best record in the current CL group stage with 20 goals scored.
In all five group matches, betting on the over 2.5 would have paid off. In the series, a bet on at least three goals in the course of the match would also have paid off in eight out of twelve cases. This was also the case at the weekend, when the dress rehearsal at home against Sassuolo was won 4:0. The score was already 3-0 at the interval.
Spalletti is spoilt for choice in attack
Salvatore Sirigu and Amir Rrahmani are missing through injury. Mateo Politano is just one warning away from a suspension and could possibly be spared. Meanwhile, offensively, Raspadori is likely to start again. The diminutive attacker has already been involved in six goals for the Partenopei. Giovanni Simeone could be preferred to the injury-prone Osimhen after his brace against Rangers, although the brawny centre-forward scored a treble. Regardless of who plays: Everything seems to be working for Napoli at the moment.
Predicted Napoli line-up:
Meret; Di Lorenzo, Ostigard, Kim, Rui; Ndombele, Lobotka, Elmas; Lozano, Simeone, Raspadori
Last matches played by Napoli:
Serie A
29/10/2022 – SSC Napoli 4 – 0 Sassuolo
Champions League Grp. A
27/10/2022 – SSC Napoli 3 – 0 Rangers
Serie A
24/10/2022 – AS Roma 0 – 1 SSC Napoli
16/10/2022 – SSC Napoli 3 – 2 Bologna
Champions League Grp. A
12/10/2022 – SSC Napoli 4 – 2 Ajax Amsterdam
Liverpool – Napoli Direct comparison / H2H balance
Excluding two friendlies from 2018 and 2019, there have been seven competitive fixtures between Liverpool and Napoli so far. In the Champions League, the Reds have won only one of five direct duels against the Partenopei. The Neapolitans, meanwhile, have already celebrated three victories in the top flight and are also unbeaten in three meetings in this competition. The first leg was won 4:1 by the strong Italians, who led 3:0 at half-time and even missed a penalty. So for the Reds, it’s certainly also about revenge.
Liverpool – Napoli tip
In purely sporting terms, the significance of this Champions League clash between Liverpool and Napoli is limited. The Italians can afford a defeat with a maximum difference of three goals and would still go into the round of 16 in first place. We do not believe that Klopp’s team still has realistic hopes of winning the group.
Nevertheless, we are convinced that we will see a lively match. Together, the two teams have marked 35 goals in five games. While LFC’s attacking threat is primarily at international level, there are few clubs at the moment that exude more danger going forward than Spalletti’s team. After the 4-1 first leg win, we believe there will be plenty of goals again this time around.
We therefore try it between Liverpool and Napoli with the bet on the over 2.5. The highest odds only amount to 1.52, yet we invest medium five units. A higher bet should be well considered, after all, it cannot be ruled out that one of the two teams will rather focus on the league and not prioritise the Champions League match.
