Will Liverpool’s CL waistcoat remain white?
Two of the four round of 16 second legs on the Champions League agenda this week are likely to be statistical only. The clash between Liverpool and Inter Milan is no exception. Odds of over 20.00 at the top that the Italian champions will still make it to the quarter-finals underline this thesis.
Statistically speaking, Reds fans need have no fear of failure either, as there has only been one team in the history of the top flight to make it through to the next round after losing the first leg in front of a home crowd by at least two goals. Manchester United lost 2-0 at home to Paris St Germain in the 2018/19 round of 16, but followed that up with an unexpected 3-1 win at Prinzenpark in the second leg, which was enough to see them through under the now-abolished away goals rule.
Apart from that, there is a lot to be said for another success for Jürgen Klopp’s team in Tuesday night’s encounter at Anfield. Comparing the current form curves of both teams, it would be quite surprising if a prediction on a home win between Liverpool and Inter Milan did not pay off. Especially considering that the Nerazzurri have not won a European Cup match in England for over ten years.
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
Liverpool Football Club is probably the most in-form football team on the continent at the moment. The Reds have picked up 22 of a possible 24 points in the domestic Premier League in the new calendar year and have recently won seven league games in a row! In addition, they won the EFL Cup against Chelsea. The 2020 champions have also reached the quarter-finals of the FA Cup.
In terms of self-confidence and momentum, the Merseyside club is currently unrivalled. Especially defensively, Virgil van Dijk and Co. are currently almost unbreakable. LFC have not conceded a goal in nine of the 15 matches they have played since the turn of the year. It therefore takes a lot of imagination to seriously consider betting on the visitors before Liverpool’s round of 16 second leg against Inter Milan.
This is also supported by the interesting statistic that shows that no other team has had more clean sheets at home in the Champions League since the start of the 2017/18 season. In 24 games at Anfield Road, the 2019 Handlepot winners have played to nil 15 (!) times.
Liverpool want eighth win in eighth CL game
In addition, it must be noted that the Klopp eleven has celebrated seven victories in seven games in the competition so far. If the Reds can claim another win on Tuesday evening, they will be only the third club to start a top flight season with eight victories (excluding qualifying). The current English Premier League runners-up have scored at least two goals of their own in all their matches on international soil so far.
In our eyes, it is therefore quite likely that the Reds will not only manage the 2-0 first-leg win, but also record another victory. It is quite possible that Mo Salah will then also be among the scorers again, after all he has already marked eight goals in the competition so far and scored all 69 minutes for the Klopp team in the Champions League.
Personnel-wise, the German coach can presumably draw from a full complement despite the fact that this is already the 16th competitive match on the 67th day of the calendar year. No definite absences are known. However, it remains to be seen whether the injured trio Firmino, Thiago and Matip will be available.
Predicted Liverpool line-up:
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Henderson, Fabinho, Keita; Salah, Mané, Diaz
Last matches played by Liverpool:
Premier League
03/05 2022 – Liverpool FC 1 – 0 West Ham
FA Cup
03/02 2022 – Liverpool FC 2 – 1 Norwich
Carabao Cup
02/27 2022 – Chelsea London (10)0 – 0(11) Liverpool FC
Premier League
02/23 2022 – Liverpool FC 6 – 0 Leeds
02/19 2022 – Liverpool FC 3 – 1 Norwich
Inter Milan – Statistics & current form
Everything points to Inter Milan’s international season coming to an end next Tuesday. The reigning Italian champions managed to hold on to a goalless draw in the first leg until the final quarter of an hour, when Firmino and Salah scored in the 75th and 83rd minutes respectively to decide the game in favour of the Reds.
If a draw had already meant an incredibly difficult starting position for the second leg, the chances of reaching the quarter-finals have now been reduced to a minimum. Even an away win at Anfield on Tuesday night would bring odds of 6.00 at the top of the Liverpool vs Inter Milan table. In the event of a sensation, a bet on the team advancing would even return more than 20 times the amount of a wagered euro.
Form weak Inter with weak record on the island
However, we have to be realistic about this and note that coach Simone Inzaghi’s side have been in poor form of late. After five games without a win in a row, they managed to win 5:0 at home against Salernitana on Friday evening. But because the Nerazzurri scored only one goal in 450 minutes of play, it’s hard to imagine Dzeko, Martinez and their colleagues pulling off a coup in the cauldron of Liverpool.
To make matters worse, Milan have lost four of their last five away games in the top flight in England. Their last victory came in the 2009/10 season, when they beat Chelsea 1-0 in the last 16. Later, the Lombards even lifted the trophy under Jose Mourinho’s management. That will definitely not happen this season!
In midfield, coach Inzaghi will again have to do without the suspended Barella. Ivan Perisic is also in danger of dropping out, having already missed Friday night’s game against Salernitana due to muscular problems. It is quite possible that German international Robin Gosens will then celebrate his CL debut for the new club. The goal must be to feed Edin Dzeko with balls up top. The ex-Wolfsburg player scored three goals in his last four games at Anfield Road.
Predicted line-up of Inter Milan:
Handanovic; Skriniar, De Vrij, Bastoni; Dumfries, Vidal, Brozovic, Calhanoglu, Gosens; Dzeko, Martinez
Last matches played by Inter Milan:
Serie A
03/04 2022 – Inter Milan 5 – 0 Salernitana
Coppa Italia
03/01 2022 – AC Milan 0 – 0 Inter Milan
Serie A
02/25 2022 – Genoa 0 – 0 Inter Milan
02/20 2022 – Inter Milan 0 – 2 Sassuolo
Champions League Final
02/16 2022 – Inter Milan 0 – 2 Liverpool FC
Liverpool – Inter Milan Direct Comparison / H2H Record
This is the sixth time the two clubs have faced each other in Europe’s premier club competition. LFC have won four of the five previous meetings. The only two matches at Anfield Road also ended in commanding victories for the Reds (3:1; 2:0), who also went without conceding a goal in three of the four aforementioned wins.
Liverpool – Inter Milan Tip
It’s hard to create artificial tension in Tuesday night’s Champions League round of 16 second leg at Anfield Road. Liverpool won the first leg 2-0 at the San Siro, are in outstanding form and can also confidently be considered a home power. What’s more, only one team has managed to turn around a 2-0 deficit from the first game away from home on 41 occasions in the top flight.
This is one of the reasons why the betting odds on a home win between Liverpool and Inter Milan are so low. Especially because the visitors from Lombardy have won only one of their last six matches in the competition and have failed to score in four of them. The Nerazzurri’s record in England is also anything but impressive.
In the end, we think that there is good value in betting on a home win after 90 minutes for Liverpool against Inter Milan, even if the top odds are only 1.60. The odds on a home win after 90 minutes are also good value. Eight out of a possible ten units is quite justifiable as a bet in view of the low risk in our eyes.
Alternative betting options target a goal by Mo Salah or a win for the favourites. LFC have not conceded a goal in nine of their 15 competitive matches in 2022. The 2019 title holders have also kept a clean sheet in 15 of their past 24 home games in the Champions League! The 2.75 on the next clean sheet is therefore also worth considering.
