Who will win the crisis duel at Anfield?
It has been more than 21 years since Jürgen Klopp first stood on the sidelines in a responsible head coach position. On 28 February 2001, he led his Mainz side to a then important 1-0 victory over MSV Duisburg. More than two decades and 998 professional games later, the popular football coach is celebrating a glorious anniversary. For the 1000th time in total, Klopp will take his place on the coaching bench on Saturday lunchtime.
The former Dortmund master coach would love to mark his special day with a sense of achievement, but the Reds will be up against a real Kloppo fear. LFC have only won six of the 19 matches against the Blues from London under the German’s management. Klopp has a worse winning record against no other English club that the 55-year-old has faced at least ten times. However, this statistic does not affect our Liverpool vs. Chelsea tip for the time being.
From a purely sporting point of view, the starting position before this direct duel is quite different than in the past. In ninth and tenth place, both teams are clearly lagging behind their own expectations. They are in danger of losing touch with the Champions League places at an early stage.
The last few weeks have been disastrously bad, so there is a lot of pressure on the kettle ahead of the encounter on Saturday lunchtime. However, with LFC at least still having home advantage on their side, the odds are currently lower on the home side to win between Liverpool and Chelsea.
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
With two Premier League wins each before as well as after the World Cup break, Liverpool Football Club seemed to be on a good path. However, in the first two league games of the calendar year, the Reds have already squandered any momentum. In particular, the disappointing performances in the defeats at Brentford (1:3) and Brighton (1:3) have led to the crisis coming to a head.
Currently, the 2020 champions are only in a disappointing ninth place. Ten points are missing from fourth position, although LFC still have at least one game less on their account than the current fourth-placed team. However, this does not change the fact that the top club is fighting against some negative records at the weekend. For example, for the first time since 1953 (!), the first three Premier League games of a new calendar year could be lost.
Liverpool’s home performances are encouraging
Liverpool’s run of conceding goals also looks set to continue, with keeper Alisson Becker having been forced to make at least one save in eight successive league matches. The last time there were nine consecutive PL games without a clean sheet was more than six years ago. So Klopp will certainly be aiming to step up a gear or two defensively in order to be able to win the crisis clash against the Blues.
Of course, the fact that the boys from Merseyside are playing in front of their own fans at Anfield Road is helpful in this context. 20 of the total of 28 points were won at home. The record of six wins, two draws and only one defeat is also very respectable, especially as they have conceded only nine of the 26 goals in their own stadium.
When will Gakpo ignite for the first time?
Only four other teams have conceded fewer goals at home so far this season than LFC, who have also won four of their last five PL home games, but at the same time have only managed to score more than two goals in three of the nine games at Anfield mentioned above. There is therefore a lot to be said for combining the odds on the double chance 1X with the under 3.5 between Liverpool and Chelsea.
The medical team is still full with Van Dijk, Jota, Luis Diaz, Firmino and Arthur. Compared to the narrow as well as important 1-0 win last week in the FA Cup replay at Wolverhampton, personnel changes are certainly to be expected. Salah, for example, is likely to replace Carvalho in the starting eleven and provide danger alongside Nunez and Gakpo. The latter, by the way, is still waiting for his first goal in his new kit.
Predicted Liverpool line-up:
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Konate, Robertson; Elliott, Fabinho, Thiago; Salah, Nunez, Gakpo
Last matches played by Liverpool:
FA Cup
18/01/2023 – Wolverhampton 0 – 1 Liverpool FC
Premier League
14/01/2023 – Brighton 3 – 0 FC Liverpool
FA Cup
08/01/2023 – Liverpool FC 2 – 2 Wolverhampton
Premier League
03/01/2023 – Brentford 3 – 1 Liverpool FC
31/12/2022 – Liverpool FC 2 – 1 Leicester
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
If we are already writing about a crisis with regard to Liverpool Football Club, we would need even more superlatives in the negative sense for Chelsea FC. Looking at recent results, the capital club’s form is even more of a concern than that of their upcoming opponents.
In fact, they have lost six of their last nine matches in the competition. In fact, only two of the last ten Premier League matches have been won. Just under a week ago, the Blues won 1-0 at home against Crystal Palace, but once again failed to impress with their footballing skills.
Chelsea impresses away from home with offensive harmlessness
Graham Potter, who was brought to Stamford Bridge for a considerable transfer fee as Tuchel’s successor, has long been criticised. The fans are appalled by the development of their club, which still won the Champions League in 2021 and actually wanted to get into the title race in England this year. In view of the performances we have seen, we would certainly be better advised not to predict an away win between Liverpool and Chelsea on Saturday.
Incidentally, the frustrating away record also speaks for this, as the Blues have not won for five PL away games now. Two points in that period have seen the Londoners slip to eighth in the away table. Even more worryingly, they have scored a meagre nine goals of their own in ten away games in the English top flight.
Will Mudryk make his Chelsea debut?
Only in a 2-0 home win over Bournemouth has Chelsea Football Club managed to score more than one goal of their own in the review of their past ten league games. This in turn reinforces our idea of using the odds for the under 3.5 as a booster ahead of the Liverpool v Chelsea encounter.
The struggling Graham Potter also continues to have to do without a number of key players. Sterling, Pulisic, Chilwell, Mendy, Kante, James, Broja and Zakaria are all unavailable. In return, the Ukrainian newcomer Mudryk could make his debut, especially in view of the fact that Joao Felix will be missing for the second time in a row after being sent off against Fulham.
Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Kepa; Chalobah, Badiashile, Silva, Hall; Kovacic, Jorginho, Gallagher; Ziyech, Aubameyang, Mount
Last matches played by Chelsea:
Premier League
15/01/2023 – Chelsea FC 1 – 0 Crystal Palace
13/01/2023 – Fulham 2 – 1 Chelsea FC
FA Cup
08/01/2023 – Manchester City 4 – 0 FC Chelsea
Premier League
06/01/2023 – Chelsea FC 0 – 1 Manchester City
01/01/2023 – Nottingham Forest 1 – 1 Chelsea FC
Liverpool – Chelsea Direct comparison / H2H balance
158 Matches played between the teams in the highest English division. Liverpool clearly lead the direct comparison with 70 wins against 51 defeats. LFC have also lost only two of their last 15 Premier League matches (six wins, seven draws).
Last season, the first and second legs ended in a draw. However, there have never been three draws in a row between these teams at league level. Also exciting is the fact that in the last 17 PL duels, only in three cases did the respective home team come out on top. Nevertheless, between Liverpool and Chelsea, the betting odds on the three-way market are pretty clearly in favour of the Reds.
Liverpool – Chelsea Tip
When the top-flight clash between two teams that have lifted the Champions League trophy in 2019 and 2021 respectively kicks off at 1.30pm on Saturday, it will be a real crisis clash. With LFC in ninth place and the Blues in tenth, there is no other way to describe the starting position.
The best bookmakers see the Reds in the role of favourites and are probably referring primarily to the home strength at Anfield Road. Six wins in nine PL home games is a decent figure, which is further enhanced by a relatively low number of goals conceded (nine). Especially in comparison to recent away performances, the Klopp team must definitely be rated more highly at home.
In addition, there is the subjective assessment that the Londoners are currently even more in trouble than the home side. Six defeats in the past nine competitive matches paint a clear picture. Furthermore, none of the last five PL matches has been lost and there has rarely been cause for celebration against Liverpool either, with only two wins from the past 15 direct encounters.
We’re therefore going for a combined bet between Liverpool and Chelsea that LFC will pick up at least a point and score a maximum of three goals in the course of the match.
