How clear are the Werkself’s heads?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are facing a very historic week. As early as next weekend, the first national championship in the club’s history could be a foregone conclusion. The corresponding festivities will be wrapped up with the two Europa League games against West Ham United, which does not exactly make the task any easier. Nevertheless, the betting odds for Leverkusen to progress against West Ham are higher with the bookmakers
This is of course primarily due to the incredible unbeaten streak that the Werkself are on. Not only in the Bundesliga and DFB Cup, but also in the Europa League, the Rhinelanders have avoided defeat in eight games in 2023/24 (seven wins, one draw). Therefore, the prediction for Leverkusen against West Ham is clearly in favor of Xabi Alonso’s selection
However, in our opinion, Bayer 04 Leverkusen are perhaps playing too big a role in the Europa League Winner 2024 prediction. The bookmakers are quoting prices of well under 1.50 for the first leg win against the Hammers, which means there is basically no value to be found in this bet. After all, the Londoners are too strong, having already won the Conference League last season and are in the same league as the Bundesliga leaders in terms of the overall market value of their squad.
We therefore expect a rather close and low-scoring result and a decision that will definitely be postponed until next week. The Asian handicap of +1.0 on West Ham United is very interesting. A draw or away win for the Londoners offers a high return, while a home win for Leverkusen with a difference of just one goal will see the stake returned. The top odds for the +1.0 (Asian) are provided by ODDSET:
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
There is now every indication that Bayer 04 Leverkusen will gradually reap the rewards of their meticulous work under Xabi Alonso in the coming days and weeks. At the weekend, the Rhinelanders could theoretically become champions on the couch on Saturday.
Should Bayern win against Cologne, meanwhile, they would have the chance to gain an unassailable lead at home to Werder Bremen on Sunday. In addition, the Black & Reds are the heavy favorites in the 2024 DFB Cup final against 1. FC Kaiserslautern, who are in danger of relegation in Bundesliga 2.
Leverkusen scored 24 goals in eight Europa League matches
The extremely likely domestic double could even turn into a small treble. In view of their phenomenal unbeaten streak, most bookmakers believe the Rhinelanders also have a good chance of winning the Europa League, especially as Leverkusen remained unbeaten in all eight Europa League games in the 2023/24 season (seven wins, one draw).
The Black & Reds were particularly impressive at home in the BayArena. All four Europa League home matches were won, with at least three goals scored in all four games (17 goals in total). Only Chelsea FC have scored at least three goals in five consecutive home games in this competition (2018/19).
How well can Leverkusen blank the Bundesliga?
LAlthough the Werkself now face a heavyweight, the odds are also clearly in favor of Xabi Alonso’s team against West Ham, under whom eleven of 16 Europa League games have been won (69 percent). Of all the coaches with at least 15 games to their name in this competition, only Diego Simeone has an even higher win rate (81%).
And yet: The championship title would be an absolute millennium event for the Black & Reds, who will certainly be carrying a lot of mental baggage with them on Thursday evening against the presumably very defensive-minded Londoners, which also plays a not insignificant role in our final prediction.
Predicted Leverkusen line-up:
West Ham – Statistics & current form
West Ham United have not only improved significantly at national level under David Moyes, but have also played an increasingly important role internationally in recent years. In 2021/22, the Londoners reached the semi-finals of the Europa League. In 2022/23, they won the Conference League undefeated.
They will also reach at least the quarter-finals in 2023/24, while at the same time they will have a much better season in the Premier League. The Hammers are currently seventh in England’s top flight with 48 points from 32 league games
West Ham visit Germany for the third time in 2023/24
West Ham United are now facing their fifth competitive match against a Bundesliga club in the 2023/24 season, having previously won three out of four games. Only in the first leg of the round of 16 did the Irons lose 1-0 to SC Freiburg in Breisgau – only to record a brilliant 5-0 home win on the Thames a week later.
According to the oddsmakers, Leverkusen v West Ham is not the best bet for the capital city side to progress again. However, it should not be forgotten that the Hammers generally like to travel. Only the top trio of Arsenal, Manchester City (both ten) and Liverpool (eight) won more away games in the Premier League in 2023/24 than West Ham (seven).
West Ham recently with a very convincing record in Europe
The Londoners are also very comfortable in the underdog role against unbeaten Leverkusen and should once again go into the game with a clear defensive concept. Superstar Mohammed Kudus, who has already netted five times in the Europa League in the 2023/24 season, is expected to create quick transitional situations.
It will certainly not be easy for the Irons to hold their own against the in-form Rhinelanders. However, the Conference League winners certainly won’t need to hide in the BayArena, having lost just two of their last 23 competitive European matches (20 wins, one draw).
Predicted West Ham line-up:
Leverkusen – West Ham head-to-head comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 0 – 0 – 0
The two teams have never played a competitive European match before. So far there is no head to head data available that could influence our predictions for Leverkusen vs West Ham in any way
Leverkusen – West Ham prediction
While Bayer Leverkusen can already make history in the Bundesliga next weekend and will inevitably have the championship trophy in their minds, the Premier League plays a subordinate role for West Ham United compared to the Europa League. Perhaps that is precisely what will ultimately tip the scales in a clash between two teams that are basically on an equal footing
In addition, the Hammers can defend well. The Rhinelanders will therefore have to invest a lot to play for victory in the first leg. The Asian handicap of +1.0 on the Londoners therefore provides a lot of value in what is likely to be a close match, as we would still get the stake back even if the Werkself win at home by just one goal.
