Will Bayer manage to break free against the leaders?
On Tuesday and Thursday, Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin were able to achieve the goals set before the start of the week in international competition.
While the Rhinelanders still secured their place in the Europa League thanks to a goalless draw against Brugge, the Ironmen celebrated a 1-0 victory at Belgian runners-up Union St. Gilloise, which put them second in their group and thus also into the intermediate round.
On Sunday afternoon, it now comes to a direct duel between these two clubs, who have contrasting seasons in the Bundesliga. The capital club continues to occupy the place in the sun; Bayer has to make do with 16th place and currently has 17 (!) points less on its account.
However, this assessment is probably based on two facts: On the one hand, the Werkself has delivered good results against the Eisern in the past. On the other hand, coach Urs Fischer’s team has already lost two of its last three away games, serving among other things as a rebuilding opponent for VfL Bochum, who are also in a slump. If that’s enough to convince you, you can get good odds on the Alonso team between Leverkusen and Union Berlin.
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
Bayer Leverkusen’s figures so far read like a fiasco. Last year’s third-placed team has only managed to register nine points so far. Only in 1982/93 was the yield at this point of a season in Germany’s top division even worse. With Dettmar Cramer (three) and Gerhard Kentschke (two), there have only been two B04 coaches who have scored fewer points in their first four matches than Xabi Alonso.
Leverkusen won only one of the seven games under the guidance of the Spanish former international. Three draws and three defeats round off the sobering balance sheet. Rank 16 with a two-point gap to the relegation zone and only two points ahead of a direct relegation place is the worrying current situation in the Bundesliga.
When will Bayer land the liberation blow?
When looking for arguments for a sporting trend reversal, the gut feeling is the most likely to come into question. From a purely objective point of view, however, one would actually have to make a prediction on the guest between Leverkusen and Union Berlin.
Given the undoubted potential of the team and the small sense of achievement on Tuesday evening, when the 0-0 draw at home to Brugge was enough to secure third place in the Champions League and thus a place in the Europa League for the winter, we do not think it is impossible that the proverbial knot will finally burst for the Werkself on Sunday.
The Werkself have not lost any of their last three BL home games
In this regard, the fact that Bayer have not lost any of their previous five must-win home games against Union and have taken five of a possible nine points from their most recent three Bundesliga home games this season also gives hope. The Alonso team has thus remained unbeaten at home three times in a row, which is why we would also consider the odds on the double chance 1X between Leverkusen and Union Berlin.
On a more positive note, the team’s bulging medical list is increasingly thinning out. Only Florian Wirtz and Serdar Azmoun are still on the list. Hincapie returns to the starting eleven after suspension. Sinkgraven, Demirbay or Amiri are also potential alternatives from the start. Even the recovered Bellarabi and Aranguiz are hoping for a joker’s turn from the bench.
Predicted line-up of Leverkusen:
Hradecky – Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapie – Frimpong, Andrich, Palacios, Bakker – Diaby, Hudson-Odoi – Schick
Last matches played by Leverkusen:
Champions League Grp. B
02/11/2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 – 0 Club Brugge
Bundesliga
29/10/2022 – RB Leipzig 2 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
Champions League Grp. B
27/10/2022 – Atletico Madrid 2 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
22/10/2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 2 VfL Wolfsburg
15/10/2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 5 – 1 Bayer Leverkusen
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
The 1. FC Union Berlin continues to swim on the wave of success. After twelve matchdays, the Eisernen are still at the top of the Bundesliga and even have the winter championship in their own hands. In the DFB Pokal, they will be fighting at home against VfL Wolfsburg at the end of January for a place in the quarter-finals, and on Thursday evening they also secured a place in the European Cup. The Köpenicker won 1:0 in Belgium and thus maintained their second place in the complicated group ahead of Braga.
However, everyone knows the credo that most mistakes happen in success. Union, too, recently lost some ground, especially away from home. Coach Urs Fischer’s team lost two of the last three away games at Eintracht Frankfurt (0:2) and VfL Bochum (1:2). Incidentally, these were the only two games of the season in which Frederik Rönnow, the top-ranked goalkeeper, had to get the ball out of the net twice.
Will Union fold before the World Cup break?
Because the attack is more effective away from home than scoring goals, an own goal was enough to take away three points in two of the three away victories. But since we now assume that the home side from the Rhineland will also score, we combine the betting odds for the over 1.5 with the already mentioned double chance 1X between Leverkusen and Union Berlin. Bet365 then offers a total of 1.66.
Traditionally, coach Urs Fischer will again crank up the rotation machine after Thursday’s Europa League showdown. Although the double burden has by no means been seen as a disadvantage so far, it should not be disregarded that the Eisern were still playing in Belgium on Thursday evening at 21:00 and therefore had a shortened preparation time for the Bundesliga match.
If the Berliners just shift down a gear and are possibly not quite mentally up to scratch after the international highlight, there is even the threat of a defeat on Sunday lunchtime. Such a scenario cannot be ruled out, even though the Swiss coach is spoilt for choice in his personnel decisions. In fact, all the professionals seem to be ready for action at the moment. Only behind regular keeper Rönnow is a small question mark.
Predicted line-up of Union Berlin:
Rönnow – Baumgartl, Knoche, Jaeckel – Ryerson, R. Khedira, Gießelmann – Thorsby, Haberer – Jordan, Becker
Last matches played by Union Berlin:
Europa League Grp. D
04/11/2022 – Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 0 – 1 Union Berlin
Bundesliga
30/10/2022 – Union Berlin 2 – 1 Gladbach
Europa League Grp. D
27/10/2022 – Union Berlin 1 – 0 Braga
Bundesliga
23/10/2022 – VfL Bochum 2 – 1 Union Berlin
DFB Cup
20/10/2022 – Union Berlin 2 – 0 FC Heidenheim
Leverkusen – Union Berlin Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
Six times the clubs have met in the Bundesliga. Three of these six matches ended in a draw. Leverkusen won twice, while Union only celebrated one victory. Because Bayer also won three cup games, the Rhinelanders have lost only one of their nine competitive matches against the current league leaders. At home, their record is almost flawless with three wins, two draws and no defeats.
Leverkusen – Union Berlin Tip
Week after week, Union Berlin causes astonished eyes in football Germany. Almost weekly, some experts assume that the Eisernen could collapse and be pushed further back. So far, however, there has been no sign of that. Almost nothing.
Especially away from home, the Eisern have recently had more problems than expected. They lost in Frankfurt and Bochum. Even the 1:0 win in Stuttgart was a very lucky one. In the previous week’s 2-1 win against Gladbach, the winning goal came in injury time. At the moment, luck is often on the side of the capital. If this changes, there is also the threat of a short dry spell.
In general, it should be noted that we do not necessarily follow statistics or recent impressions with our betting recommendation this time, but rather listen to our gut feeling. Many will not go along with us when we say that we trust the recently really weak Leverkusen to get a good result. But at least at home, the Alonso team has recently been much stronger than away. On top of that, they have a very positive record against their opponents from Köpenick.
