Will the Werkself temporarily reduce the gap?

1. FC Union Berlin have dispelled any worries about relegation after picking up ten out of a possible twelve points from their last four league games. Particularly impressive: the Irons didn’t just beat anyone, but scored against Frankfurt, Bayern, Freiburg and Wolfsburg. From this alone, it is clear that the tip for the home win of the Werkself is anything but a sure thing against Union Berlin.

Last Saturday, the black and reds finally managed a highly flattering 1-0 win in Heidenheim, where Bayer 04 certainly could not have complained about a defeat either. Although Florian Wirtz’s return is imminent, the forecast for Leverkusen against Union Berlin is that the Werkself will temporarily reduce the gap to Bayern to three points with a home win, but this is associated with high risks – given the low odds for Tip 1, probably too high.

In our opinion, an alternative tip is needed, whereby we consider it very interesting to set a handicap of +2 on 1. FC Union Berlin. This not only covers every point won by the well-positioned Irons, but also every “work victory” for Leverkusen, which would only cause our tip to fail if they win by at least a two-goal margin. Against defensively very stable Köpenicker certainly not an easy task, if Wirtz probably comes into question for a short-term assignment at most – if at all.

Leverkusen vs. Union Berlin Prediction AI

Even the supercomputer BETSiE is not keen on betting on the Werkself, who have not been particularly convincing in terms of their play of late and who would have deserved to lose last weekend in Heidenheim. In fact, the AI prediction for Leverkusen against Union Berlin is that the in-form Köpenickers will get a point.

The Bet-at-home app is offering odds of 3.40 for the double chance X2, which suggests a 29.4 percent probability that the Irons will get a point. In fact, the supercomputer BETSiE rates the capital city’s chances of getting something out of the game against the reigning double winners much higher, at 33.9 percent, which creates a positive expected value. It would also be conceivable to start this risky outsider bet with a no-deposit freebet.

Leverkusen – statistics & current form

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have recently also missed out on the final of the DFB Cup after being knocked out of the Champions League knockout stage. But at least in the top flight of German football, the form is right. Five of the last six Bundesliga games have been won, with only one game lost. Since the beginning of the 23rd matchday, no team has been more successful. With currently 62 points after 28 games, the Werkself is playing their second-best Bundesliga season – only last year, the yield was even higher at this point in time, when they won the historic double undefeated.

The odds for the match between Leverkusen and Union Berlin paint a correspondingly clear picture. The record is certainly good. In home games against the Irons, the black and reds are still unbeaten in the top flight (three wins, two draws) and have conceded only three goals in these five games. Overall, Union is the club, along with BVB, against which the Rhinelanders scored the most goals at home in the Bundesliga.

Leverkusen and late goals

In fact, Leverkusen’s offense is one of the best in the league with 63 goals. Only Bayern Munich scores more. Particularly noteworthy: Emiliano Buendia was the 17th different scorer this season – the highest number in the league. Nevertheless, the absence of Florian Wirtz was noticeable when it took until the 86th minute to take the first shot on goal in the recent game in Heidenheim, where the team’s performance was restrained until the 86th minute. Speaking of Hofmann, who set up the Buendia goal, he remained completely unbeaten in his first 39 Bundesliga games with the Werkself – this is a record set by a player. Previously, only Javi Martínez had managed this with Bayern.

Bayer 04 “Laterkusen” has also not yet lost its penchant for last-minute goals. Twelve goals after regular time means second in the league. At the same time, the team has the second-best chance conversion rate at 20.1 percent. Aspects that also underline why the AI recommendation to win points for the Irons is associated with high risks.

Union Berlin – Statistics & current form

Union Berlin are currently more stable than they have been in a long time. The Irons have not been beaten in four Bundesliga games and have won two in a row – a first since October. With ten points from their last four games, the capital city club is the team in the top flight of German football that has improved the most during this period and has thus dispelled any remaining doubts about their status in the league.

There is also a clear upward trend away from home. In the last four Bundesliga away games, there were three wins – as many as in the 29 away games before that. Should the tip for the away win of the Köpenickers come up against Leverkusen against Union, that would even set the club record of three away wins in a row.

Union Berlin are finally looking solid defensively again

Despite their recent improvement in form, Steffen Baumgart’s team remain limited in attack: with just 26 goals scored this season, FCU have the second-weakest offense in the top flight of German football and, at 10.3%, have the lowest chance conversion rate. They only manage an average of 41 percent possession, which is also a league-wide record. The fact that the results are good again is more a case of the defensive stability of previous years finally returning.

Benedict Hollerbach also stands out individually: seven of his eight goals were his team’s first goal. Only three players in the league scored the opening goal for their team more often in 2024/25. He is also one of the most dynamic players in the league, completing 33 sprints per 90 minutes. This makes the Irons particularly dangerous in transition – even though a real test awaits them in the BayArena.

Leverkusen – Union Berlin Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 9 – 4 – 1

A total of 14 competitive matches have taken place between the two teams so far, and with nine wins, the Werkself lead the direct comparison very clearly. In fact, there has only been one defeat in all 14 meetings for the Rhinelanders, who also won the first leg at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei 2-1.

Leverkusen – Union Berlin betting tip

For our taste, the betting odds of the top bookmakers were much too clear in favor of Leverkusen against Union Berlin, who, although they have won five of their last six league games (one defeat), have definitely not covered themselves in glory in their last two away games in Bielefeld (1:3) and Heidenheim (1:0). The air seems to have gone out of it a bit, which could well benefit the in-form Berliners, who have scored points against Frankfurt, Bayern, Freiburg and Wolfsburg in succession.

Although, unlike the AI in Leverkusen against Union Berlin, a prediction of the Iron’s point win is a bit too tricky for us. But with a handicap of +2 on the guests, we get the best of both worlds and insure against any point loss of the Werkself, but also against any home win of the Rhinelanders with only a one-goal lead.