Will the Werkself stumble again over RBL, of all teams?
The reigning double winners Bayer Leverkusen have won 40 of the last 52 Bundesliga games. In eleven further draws, only a single game was lost in the top division of German football: the first leg against the Red Bulls (2-3). The Black & Reds now want to get revenge for precisely this. In principle, the trend at RB Leipzig against Leverkusen is also towards Tip 2.
However, the three-way system also involves risks. Not only did eight of the 17 previous competitive games between the two clubs end up with the Saxons winning, but RBL also built up new self-confidence in the premier class against Sporting Lisbon (2:1) during the week, while the Werkself lost 1:2 at Atletico Madrid after eleven competitive wins in a row. A result that should not be overrated in the forecast for RB Leipzig against Leverkusen either.
The fact that only odds of 1.95 are being offered for the away win of the Werkself at RB Leipzig against Leverkusen puts a stop to the favorite’s bet, even from a mathematical point of view.
However, betting on a high-scoring match is a coherent alternative anyway. Both teams know where the opposing goal is and have not had an easy time keeping their white shirts lately. Therefore, betting on over 2.5 goals, which can be found at Betano at odds of 1.55, offers a lot of value.
The fact that we see no value in the tip on the favored Werkself is 100 percent signed by the BETSiE. The betting odds of 1.95 for Tip 2, which are advertised in the Interwetten app, imply that a positive expected value only arises from a probability of 52 percent. However, the AI calculates that the black and reds only have a 40.2 percent chance of an away win in the Red Bull Arena.
Given this high discrepancy, it is not surprising that the BETSiE supercomputer suggests that the AIs predict a home win for RB Leipzig against Leverkusen. LeoVegas’ top odds of 3.90 suggest a 25.6 percent probability of Leipzig winning at home, while BETSiE even predicts a 34.5 percent chance of victory for Marco Rose’s team. That is one of the most positive expected values that the BETSiE has come up with for the entire match day, and, logically from a mathematical point of view, it is almost a must-bet, which we still find very difficult from a human point of view.
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
RB Leipzig may have ended a six-game losing streak in the UEFA Champions League during the week. However, the 2-1 home win against Sporting Lisbon, which was even a little fortunate, came too late: it was clear even before the game that the Saxons no longer had a chance of making it into the playoffs.
It is now all the more important to take the self-confidence gained into the Bundesliga, where they are currently only in fifth place with 31 points from 18 games. In fact, it is the second-weakest Bundesliga season of the two-time cup winners in the still short history of the club.
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
RB Leipzig may have ended a six-game losing streak in the UEFA Champions League during the week. However, the 2-1 home win against Sporting Lisbon, which was even a little lucky, came too late: it was clear even before the game that the Saxons no longer had a chance of making it into the playoffs.
It is now all the more important to take the self-confidence gained into the Bundesliga, where they are currently only in fifth place with 31 points from 18 games. In fact, it is the second-weakest Bundesliga season of the two-time cup winners in the still short history of the club.
RB Leipzig have already frittered away too many leads
Even now, the odds are against Marco Rose’s team at RB Leipzig against Leverkusen, who ended the champions’ unbeaten streak in the first leg with a 3-2 win in the Rhineland, but have lost all three previous Bundesliga duels against the Werkself.
Although the Saxons only rank seventh in the Bundesliga home table, at least their home record is respectable. RBL has only lost one of its eight Bundesliga home games in 2024/25 (five wins, two draws), with only Bayern having conceded fewer home goals (six).
Far more problematic, however, is the negligent way they handle leads. Last week, the Red Bulls squandered a 3-0 lead against Bochum (final score: 3-3). In total, they have already dropped eleven points after taking the lead. This is the joint-highest figure in the league, together with Wolfsburg and today’s opponents Leverkusen.
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen has now recovered fully after a mediocre start to the season. Xabi Alonso’s team has won the last eight Bundesliga games in a row and, with a sensational 24 out of 24 possible points, has consolidated second place in the table again.
Nevertheless, they are still four points behind FC Bayern Munich. So if the tip for an away win for the black and reds against RB Leipzig against Leverkusen does not pan out, it could well be a serious setback in the fight for the championship again.
During the week, they also lost 1-2 at Atlético Madrid, which saw the Werkself slip to eighth place in the Champions League group stage. However, this has not yet had any consequences, provided that they get the expected home win against Sparta Prague next Wednesday.
Will Leverkusen extend their strong away streak?
Nevertheless, a winning streak of eleven competitive games came to an end during the week. It would suit the reigning double winners all the better if their incredible away streak were to continue.
The Werkself have not been beaten in the Bundesliga for 25 consecutive matches (19 wins, six draws), which is also due to the enormous goal-scoring threat that Wirtz, Schick and Co. also exude away from home. On average, Bayer 04 shot 16.3 times per Bundesliga game on target in 2024/25. Only Bayern (20.2) outdo that across the league.
RB Leipzig – Leverkusen Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 8 – 4 – 5
Only 17 competitive matches have taken place between the two teams, with RB Leipzig leading the direct comparison with eight wins. The Saxons ended the reigning double winners’ unbeaten streak in the first leg with a 3-2 win in the Rhineland, and were responsible for Leverkusen’s only Bundesliga defeat in the last 52 games (40 wins, 11 draws). Before that, however, the Werkself won three consecutive Bundesliga games against the Red Bulls.
RB Leipzig – Leverkusen Tip
The fact that the betting odds of the top bookmakers for RB Leipzig against Leverkusen are in favor of the guests from the Rhineland makes it very difficult to use the three-way system in this top game. After all, the record speaks for the Red Bulls, who definitely have a certain chance of wresting at least a point from the Werkself. Therefore, there is no value in the favorite bet, while both the outsider bet and a possible double chance 1X could fail because the black and reds have recently celebrated eight Bundesliga victories in a row and basically have the momentum with them.
However, it is also clear that the reigning double winner has repeatedly shown itself to be vulnerable defensively. Last weekend, they conceded a goal again in the 3-1 defeat to Gladbach. Therefore, the forecast of over 2.5 goals for RB Leipzig against Leverkusen, which does not rule out an exit on the three-way market, is very coherent.
