How will Leverkusen cope with Diaby’s absence?
Lukas Hradecky has already drawn attention to himself with a few blunders this season. It is no coincidence that the Bayer management felt compelled to improve the goalkeeper position in the winter.
With Patrick Pentz from Reims, an Austrian national keeper was signed, who should initially take on the role of challenger. However, if his Finnish counterpart makes further mistakes, such as against Monaco in the Europa League on Thursday evening, the former Austrian could soon make his grand entrance.
Hradecky will still be the goalkeeper in the Werkself’s upcoming home game in the Bundesliga, however. Before the match between Leverkusen and Mainz, betting on a home win for the Rhinelanders definitely seems to be one of the most plausible betting options. Particularly, of course, in view of the fact that the home side have made solid progress under Xabi Alonso so far.
Apart from that, FSV have not been particularly efficient in opposing stadiums in recent weeks and months. Only one point, for example, came out of the four most recent Bundesliga games away from home. It would therefore be a surprise if a forecast for a point win by the visitors between Leverkusen and Mainz were to pay off.
However, the home team still has the potential for danger, as it is a game between two appearances in the European Cup. Already on Thursday, Leverkusen have to make up for the 2:3 deficit in the Europa League in the Monaco principality.
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
The form curve of Bayer Leverkusen continues to point upwards. The Werkself has won six of the last eight Bundesliga matches. Since the beginning of November, coach Xabi Alonso’s team has collected 18 of a possible 24 points and is even the best team in the German top flight in this ongoing period.
After two defeats in a row against Dortmund and Augsburg, the Rhinelanders finally returned to winning ways last week thanks to a 3:1 victory at Hoffenheim. During the week, however, Bayer lost out in the Europa League. Despite leading 2-1 at one stage, Leverkusen lost 3-2 at home to AS Monaco and must now fear for their ticket to the last 16 of the second most important European club competition.
Leverkusen want to continue the race to catch up
But in any case, the Bundesliga should continue to enjoy priority number one, because it seems rather unlikely that Bayer will win the Europa League in view of the many strong teams taking part. Thus, the best that can be achieved at the national level is sixth place in the final standings. Eight points are lacking for the current eighth-placed team. The former Champions League finalists cannot afford many more slip-ups.
In the upcoming home match, the points account should be increased in any case. It is certainly helpful that the Werkself has won four of the last six home games and all four victories even included a clean sheet. Bayer have also not conceded a goal in seven of their last ten direct encounters against FSV.
Mainz in front of the chest, Monaco in the back of the mind
Despite this, the odds on a “to-nil” victory for the favourites between Leverkusen and Mainz should be taken with a grain of salt. In five of the last six matches, keeper Hradecky has had to make at least one save. Moreover, it should not be forgotten that the preparation for this match was far less extensive than before a normal Bundesliga match. The Europa League is omnipresent, but must not play a role in the players’ minds.
To make matters worse, Moussa Diaby, currently Leverkusen’s best player, will be absent due to injury. So Xabi Alonso has hardly any other option than to bring back Florian Wirtz from the start again and thus take a certain risk in terms of load. Patrik Schick could also return to the starting line-up after recovering from injury.
Last games of Leverkusen:
Europa League Final Stage
17/02/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 3 AS Monaco
Bundesliga
11/02/2023 – Hoffenheim 1 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen
04/02/2023 – Augsburg 1 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
29/01/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
26/01/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 0 VfL Bochum
Mainz – Statistics & current form
Mainz’s performances this season are somehow elusive. There is a lack of consistency. Strong performances alternate with disappointing performances with nice regularity. It feels as if you never know before the start of a match which face FSV will show. These impressions are also reflected in the standings, because as twelfth in the table, the Rheinhessen side are the epitome of average in Germany’s top division, nine points behind sixth place and nine points clear of the relegation zone.
Away from home, however, coach Bo Svensson’s team has rarely been able to put its undoubted horsepower on the pitch. Three of the most recent four matches away from home were lost by the Nullfünfer. Even at Schalke (0:1) or at relegation candidates Stuttgart (1:1), the Svensson eleven remained winless and repeatedly fell short of their own expectations.
Which Mainz face will we get to see this time?
FSV’s last away win dates back to mid-October. With just one point coming from their last four BL away games and the Rheinhessen side conceding ten goals in that period, we’re a long way from eyeing double chance X2 odds on Sunday’s clash between Leverkusen and Mainz.
But the guests from the Rhine-Main border region can definitely be expected to score at least one goal. On the one hand, because they have always scored at least one goal in their last six Bundesliga matches. On the other hand, because Karim Onisiwo, an offensive player, is in very good form at the moment.
The Austrian scored his eighth goal of the season in the 3:1 win against Augsburg the previous week. The fast attacker has never scored more goals in his Bundesliga career in Germany. Against Leverkusen, however, Onisiwo is still waiting for his first goal in nine Bundesliga matches. If you want to make a prediction on goals for both teams before the match between Leverkusen and Mainz, you can get appealing odds of 1.74.
Last matches played by Mainz:
Bundesliga
11/02/2023 – Mainz 05 3 – 1 Augsburg
04/02/2023 – Union Berlin 2 – 1 Mainz 05
DFB Cup
02/02/2023 – Mainz 05 0 – 4 Bayern Munich
Bundesliga
28/01/2023 – Mainz 05 5 – 2 VfL Bochum
26/01/2023 – Mainz 05 1 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
Leverkusen – Mainz Direct comparison / H2H-balance
After 33 completed Bundesliga matches between these clubs, Bayer Leverkusen lead the direct comparison with 17 wins. Five encounters ended in draws, while in eleven cases FSV had the upper hand.
In the recent past, however, the pendulum has mostly swung in the direction of the Werkself, who have lost only one of their last ten Bundesliga games against FSV and celebrated a whopping eight victories in that span. Since the start of 2018, Leverkusen have not won more often against any other team in the top flight than against the Nullfünfer. In addition, the Rhinelanders have always managed at least one goal of their own in the last eleven direct duels. Bayer won the first leg 3-0 at the MEWA Arena.
Leverkusen – Mainz Tip
Just three days after losing 3-2 at home to Monaco in the UEFA Europa League and a few days before the second leg at the Stade Louis II, Bayer Leverkusen face a must-win task in the Bundesliga. The term “compulsory task” is misnomer at this point, however, as it almost sells the opponent from Rheinhessen a bit short. FSV Mainz 05 should not be underestimated, even though the Svensson eleven only picked up one point from their most recent four away games.
Nevertheless, significantly lower betting odds are being offered on the home side between Leverkusen and Mainz, not least because the Werkself have won six of their past eight Bundesliga matches, have come out on top in eight of their last ten head-to-head clashes against the Nullfünfer, and have also prevailed in four of their most recent six home games in the 2022/23 top flight.
We have therefore decided, without any further addition, to play the home win bet before the Leverkusen vs Mainz clash.
