Leverkusen desperately need the treble

Monday matches are frowned upon in German professional football. Not so long ago, club supporters unanimously lobbied for league games on the first working day of the week to be abolished. On this 32nd matchday, however, an exception will be made in the Bundesliga. The reason for this is 01 May, Labour Day, on which traditionally no matches are played in the first three professional leagues in Germany.

Specially for Frankfurt’s Eintracht, however, this circumstance comes at the worst possible time, because after the away match in Leverkusen late on Monday evening, the Hessians will only have two full days to intensively deal with the second leg in the Europa League semi-final against West Ham.

Coach Oliver Glasner will therefore in all likelihood fire up the rotation machine, leading to far lower odds being offered on the home win between Leverkusen and Frankfurt in the run-up to the game.

Apart from that, the Rhinelanders have also been quite fond of playing the SGE in front of a home crowd in the recent past. The Werkself have won all of their last six home games in the Bundesliga against the Eagle Bearers.

In addition, we refer to the extreme desire for revenge of the Seoane eleven, who lost the first leg in the Stadtwald with 2:5 and actually urgently need a three-pointer on Monday evening in the fight for the Champions League race. In the Leverkusen vs. Frankfurt clash, therefore, it pays to predict success for the hosts?

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

On their way back into the group stage of the top flight, Bayer Leverkusen still have challenging tasks to complete on the remaining three matchdays. On Monday evening, the home match against Eintracht Frankfurt awaits, next Saturday the Werkself is challenged by TSG Hoffenheim, before it could come to the big showdown at home against the direct rivals from Freiburg on matchday 34.

In order to stay in pole position until then, it will be of elementary importance that the bet on a home win in the Leverkusen vs Frankfurt match comes true. As already mentioned, the Rhinelanders have recently celebrated six home victories in a row against the Europa League semi-finalists. In addition, the attack of the current third-placed team in the table is particularly strong.

Leverkusen need points for top 4

By winning 4-1 away at SpVgg Greuther Fürth the previous week, Bayer already pushed their offensive output up to 72 goals. For more than 20 years, the Werkself had not scored more goals after 31 matchdays. With Sardar Azmoun and Exequiel Palacios, players 17 and 18 have already entered the internal list of goal scorers for 2021/22. Only Borussia Dortmund can match this impressive figure, which speaks for flexibility in attack.

The only point that raises slight doubts for the upcoming duel is the home record, which can be improved. At the BayArena, there are eight wins, two draws and already five defeats. Despite ninth place in the home table, however, four of the past six matches have been won in front of their own fans, which in turn can be used as an argument to play the odds on a home win between Leverkusen and Frankfurt.

This is also supported by the statistics on Mondays, which show that Leverkusen have never lost a match on this day of the week in five attempts in their Bundesliga history. Due to injuries, the Swiss coach with Spanish roots still has to do without Wirt, Adli, Frimpong and Bellarabi. Hincapie, Fosu-Mensah and Sertdemir will join them in the hospital. Andrich returns to the team after overcoming suspension.

Predicted Leverkusen line-up:
Hradecky; Kossounou, Tah, Tapsoba, Bakker; Diaby, Andrich, Demirbay, Paulinho; Azmoun, Schick

Last matches played by Leverkusen:

Bundesliga
23/04/2022 – Greuther Fürth 1 – 4 Bayer Leverkusen

18/04/2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 – 1 RB Leipzig

10/04/2022 – VfL Bochum 0 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen

02/04/2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 1 Hertha BSC

20/03/2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 0 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen

Frankfurt – Statistics & current form

For Frankfurt Eintracht, the three remaining games in the Bundesliga clearly have secondary importance. The focus is clearly on the Europa League, especially since winning the title in the second most important European club competition remains the only chance to be represented internationally again next season – then, by the way, even in the Champions League.

Although we don’t expect the Eagles to give up their matches in the German top flight, we do expect a different starting eleven on Monday evening at the BayArena compared to their recent positive performances in the European Cup. That is one of the reasons why we would be cautious about predicting that the Hessians will perform as impressively in the league between Leverkusen and Frankfurt as they did in London on Thursday.

Frankfurt already have West Ham on their mind

The fact that Eintracht lost their two most recent Monday matches in the Bundesliga and have generally waited since 13 March for a treble in league action further supports this assessment. A meagre three points (three draws, two defeats) have come from the past five games. In six of their last ten appearances in the German top flight, they failed to score a goal of their own. In total, the tenth-placed team has also scored “only” 42 goals.

Against this backdrop, betting on less than 4.5 goals in the course of the match can be a conceivable approach. More than four goals were scored in only seven of the 31 matches involving the SGE. Six of these seven over-4.5 matches, however, date either from the calendar year 2021 or from the time in the spring when the black-and-red-white team was not yet in international action.

The double burden has therefore led to a change in the style of play, towards a more stable defence. Even if Glasner’s team loses out on Monday evening, the defeat will not be particularly significant. Borré will have to miss out due to a yellow suspension, Lindström will probably be spared due to muscular problems. Further rotation-related or load-controlling changes are possible.

Predicted Frankfurt line-up:
Trapp; Tuta, Hinteregger, Ndicka; Knauff, Sow, Jakic, Kostic; Hauge, Kamada; Paciencia

Last matches played by Frankfurt:

Europa League Final Stage
29/04/2022 – West Ham 1 – 2 Eintracht Frankfurt

Bundesliga
23/04/2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 2 – 2 Hoffenheim

17/04/2022 – Union Berlin 2 – 0 Eintracht Frankfurt

Europa League Final Stage
15/04/2022 – FC Barcelona 2 – 3 Eintracht Frankfurt

Bundesliga
10/04/2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 2 SC Freiburg

Leverkusen – Frankfurt Direct comparison / H2H-Balance

The pairing of Leverkusen against Frankfurt has recently been a clear case in favour of the respective home team. Eight times in a row, the host has always prevailed between these teams.

Leverkusen alone have celebrated six home victories in a row against the SGE, with an impressive goal difference of 23:3. The Werkself has no other club to offer such a series. There was little evidence of this in the first leg, however, which Eintracht won 5:2 in front of the home crowd. We do not expect a similar number of goals on Monday evening.

Leverkusen – Frankfurt Tip

On paper, the match between Leverkusen and Frankfurt reads like a real spectacle. In fact, many goals were scored between these clubs several times in previous years. On Monday evening, however, we do not believe in offensive fireworks. On the one hand, because the Werkself has not been so convincing offensively lately. On the other hand, because it can be assumed that Glasner’s team will again follow a somewhat wait-and-see style of play.

Our first tendency is therefore to play the betting odds on an under match between Leverkusen and Frankfurt. Even for the under 4.5, there are still reasonable quotes offered here, which are probably so high because, as we know, the first leg ended with 5:2 for Eintracht.

This time we see the Rhinelanders at an advantage. On the one hand, because of the double burden and the changing focus at the SGE. On the other hand, it is also due to the exciting home series of the third-placed team, who have had the upper hand at home against the Eagles six times in a row. The one or other personnel change at Hessen could also have a negative effect on the momentum.