Terzic or Xabi Alonso – who will continue the chase?

It may be a sign of quality to win close games. At the same time, however, it is a sign of poor quality when a team with a high-quality line-up like Borussia Dortmund actually has to tremble for three points at home against FC Augsburg or in Mainz until the last second. Nevertheless, the Black and Yellows have come out of the winter break with the maximum yield of six points and have already improved to fifth position in the standings.

On Sunday, however, the first real acid test awaits BVB. The Terzic eleven will be guests at the BayArena from 17:30. Predicting the outcome of the top match between Leverkusen and Dortmund is very complicated in that both teams have won a match in each of the past three Bundesliga seasons. According to the law of the series, it would now be the Werkself’s turn again due to Borussia’s 1:0 first leg win…

The visitors, however, will fight back with all their might, especially to continue distancing a direct competitor for the top places to at least seven points. It should come as no surprise that the momentum is more on the side of the home team after five victories in a row.

It is not without reason that slightly lower odds are being offered on a win for the home side ahead of the Leverkusen vs Dortmund clash. Far more interesting, however, seems to be a bet on the goal market, because considering the strong offensive lines, we believe in a lively match with a few goals.

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

For a long time, Bayer Leverkusen fans had to wait for this moment. In the meantime, however, it seems to have finally ‘clicked’ for the Werkself. After a disastrous start to the season and only one win in the first eight matchdays, the Rhinelanders have already caught up in the last games before the winter break and have now prolonged the positive trend after the two months without matches.

Bayer has won five Bundesliga games in a row. Together with VfL Wolfsburg, Leverkusen is the team with the best form in the German top flight. Incidentally, the last time the current eighth-placed team won six consecutive matches in the best football league in Germany was more than six years ago. In the course of the seven-match winning streak, a certain Roger Schmidt was still on the bench.

Will Xabi Alonso extend his winning streak with the Werkself?

After relatively commanding victories in Gladbach (3:2) and at home against VfL Bochum (2:0), coach Xabi Alonso’s team is brimming with confidence. The Spanish coach can also look back on an impressive home record, as Bayer have not lost any of the five completed BL home games under his leadership and have instead picked up 13 of a possible 15 points. However, the opponents Schalke, Stuttgart and Bochum were also moderate during this period.

On Sunday, a completely different and crunchier challenge awaits. Above all, the defence, which has not conceded a goal in four of the five home games mentioned above, will be challenged much more. The fact that Jonathan Tah, Edmond Tapsoba and Co. allow themselves more mistakes under increasing pressure and also reveal weaknesses is underlined by the 28 goals conceded in total. No other team in the top half of the table has a weaker defence than Leverkusen.

We therefore focus on the odds on over-goals between Leverkusen and Dortmund and additionally argue with the fact that in Bayer’s most recent four home games against BVB, a total of 23 goals were scored, i.e. an average of almost four per match. Because Xabi Alonso is a friend of load management and rotation, there could again be some changes in the starting eleven. Should the injured Aranguiz and Schick return, the Spaniard would have the entire squad at his disposal.

Predicted Leverkusen line-up:
Hradecky – Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapie – Frimpong, Palacios, Andrich, Bakker – Diaby, Wirtz, Adli

Last matches played by Leverkusen:

Bundesliga
26/01/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 0 VfL Bochum

22/01/2023 – Gladbach 2 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen

Club friendlies
15/01/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 1 – 0 FC Copenhagen

07/01/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 1 Venice

17/12/2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 4 – 1 FC Zurich

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

At the World Cup, Giovanni Reyna was still out of favour with American national coach Gregg Berhalter. The highly talented offensive player was hardly allowed to prove his skills in Qatar and struggled mentally with the consequences, which were also hyped up by the media. This makes his performance on the first two match days after the winter break all the more remarkable. As a wild card, the son of BVB legend Claudio Reyna scored the winning goal against FC Augsburg (4:3) and in Mainz (2:1).

In terms of results, the Black and Yellows have made a promising start to the 2023 football year. In terms of performance, however, there is still a lot of room for improvement. Especially in the defensive area.

The results (don’t) hide the defensive weaknesses

The defence looked anything but solid in both games and once again made inexplicable lapses, especially against FCA. BVB have only kept their clean sheet in two of their last ten Bundesliga games.

After the defensive performance was already a cause for concern against statistically mediocre offensive teams, we are now very curious to see how Süle, Schlotterbeck and/or Hummels will do against the Werkself’s technically adept high-speed offence. We definitely expect a goal or two and recommend the odds on both teams scoring between Leverkusen and Dortmund on the one hand, but also various over-bets on the other hand.

Edin Terzic is spoilt for choice

Fact is also that Borussia’s offensive has much more punch than it did a year ago. On the one hand, of course, this is due to the return of several players who are fuelling the competition and can also put a different stamp on the game as substitutes. On the other hand, however, it is also due to their new strength in standard situations. On the last three match days, as many goals were scored from stationary balls as in the first 14 rounds of this season. Against Mainz, a corner kick even led to the important winning goal.

Compared to the starting eleven against Mainz, changes are conceivable. Hummels would be a candidate for the starting line-up, Reyna is also pushing his way into the team and Jude Bellingham is definitely returning to the team after a yellow suspension. In addition, Haller could play up front from the start for the first time. Marco Reus has recovered from his cold and will initially sit on the bench. Edin Terzic is definitely not short of options.

Dortmund’s likely line-up:
Kobel – Ryerson, Süle, N. Schlotterbeck, Guerreiro – Can – Adeyemi, Brandt, Bellingham, Reyna – Moukoko

Last matches played by Dortmund:

Bundesliga
26/01/2023 – Mainz 05 1 – 2 Borussia Dortmund

22/01/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 4 – 3 Augsburg

Friendly club matches
13/01/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 6 – 0 FC Basel 1893

10/01/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 5 – 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf

10/12/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 0 – 2 AC Florenz

Leverkusen – Dortmund Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

For the 88th time, the clubs meet in Germany’s top division. Borussia Dortmund leads the direct comparison with 35 wins compared to 30 defeats and 22 draws. BVB also won the first leg of the current season on the first matchday by a narrow 1:0 margin. Marco Reus scored the golden goal in the tenth minute for the Black and Yellows, who could now win both legs against Leverkusen for the first time since 2018/19.

Far more interesting than the relatively even head-to-head record is the fact that eight of the past ten Bundesliga encounters between these teams have resulted in at least four goals. In six of these ten matches, one of the two clubs has scored four or more goals in their own right.

Leverkusen – Dortmund Tip

The first second-round matchday in the Bundesliga has some exciting duels in store. In addition to the top match on Saturday evening between Bayern and Frankfurt, we are also looking forward to the derby between Hertha and Union and the chasing duel between Leverkusen and Dortmund on Sunday evening. According to the betting odds, two teams will meet on equal terms. The bookmakers do not name a clear favourite.

We are also holding back with a bet on the three-way market and instead expect a goal or two. In the last four Leverkusen home games against BVB, a total of 23 goals were scored. Both teams have outstanding offensive lines, but have revealed major defensive deficits so far this season. In addition, both the host and the guest have started the new year very positively and confidently with two victories.

We have therefore decided to place a bet on over-goals between Leverkusen and Dortmund. For this purpose, we have taken the Asian Over 3, which means nothing other than that the bet goes through from the fourth goal in the course of the match. If exactly three goals are scored, the bet is returned and only if two or fewer goals are scored is our boldly chosen stake of seven units gone.