Do Leverkusen have the group win locked up?
After just four matchdays, Bayer Leverkusen have virtually secured their place in the UEFA Europa League Intermediate Round. Although there is still a mathematical chance that the Werkself will finish in third place, it is so small and only of a theoretical nature that it will not be mentioned here.
In the last home match of the group phase, the Bundesliga team’s primary concern is to clinch the group victory. All they need is a win in their remaining two matches. If we look at the odds of the five best bookmakers before the clash between Leverkusen and Celtic Glasgow, the probability is quite high that the required three-goal win will already come on Thursday evening against the Scots.
The bookmakers’ optimism is primarily due to the fact that coach Gerardo Seoane’s team already won the first leg in Scotland 4-0. The other performances so far in the Europa League preliminary round also provide convincing arguments for predicting another commanding success for the Rhinelanders between Leverkusen and Celtic Glasgow.
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
Bayer Leverkusen are playing a very good Europa League season so far. Excluding the 1-1 draw at Betis Sevilla, the Bundesliga club has celebrated victories in the other three games. Two of these three victories, at home in the second leg against the Andalusians and at Celtic Glasgow, were even clear-cut with 4:0. Ten points from four matches and an impressive goal difference of 11:2 are emblematic of the Werkself’s dominance in Group G. Only Olympique Lyon have won the competition. Only Olympique Lyon has scored more goals in the competition than the Rhinelanders.
In view of their convincing performances and the fact that they have won their last five Europa League home games in the group phase, there is much to suggest that the Bundesliga side will also have the upper hand on Thursday. Incidentally, if you look further back in time, Bayer have not lost any of their last 14 home games in the EL group stage.
Bayer want to continue the upward trend
The only notable risk that should be considered lies hidden in the question of how seriously Leverkusen still take this home game, given their outstanding starting position in the battle for the top two places? Here, however, it can immediately be argued that the Seoane eleven would also fix the group victory with a win on Thursday. In addition, they would like to build up self-confidence for the upcoming tasks in the Bundesliga.
Things have been average at best there lately. After four games without a win and only two points, they managed to beat VfL Bochum 1-0 at the weekend. The only headache for coach Gerardo Seoane is the tense personnel situation. With Schick, Aranguiz, Bakker, Baumgartlinger and Fosu-Mensah, five players are definitely out. Alario and Bellarabi are also questionable. In addition, Demirbay is missing due to his sending off against Betis Sevilla.
Predicted line-up of Leverkusen:
Hradecky; Frimpong, Tah, Tapsoba, Hincapie; Diaby, Andrich, Palacios, Amiri; Wirtz; Adli
Last matches played by Leverkusen:
1st Bundesliga
11/20 2021 – Bayer Leverkusen 1 – 0 Vfl Bochum
11/07 2021 – Hertha Berlin 1 – 1 Bayer Leverkusen
Europa League Grp. G
11/04 2021 – Bayer Leverkusen 4 – 0 Real Betis
1st Bundesliga
10/30 2021 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 – 2 Vfl Wolfsburg
DFB Cup
10/27 2021 – Bayer Leverkusen 1 – 2 Karlsruher SC
Celtic Glasgow – Statistics & current form
Celtic Glasgow are already under pressure in Leverkusen on Thursday. Assuming that their direct rivals for second place, Betis Sevilla, win their away game at Ferencvaros, the reigning Scottish champions actually need a win to keep their chances of reaching the next round in the Europa League alive. If the “Bhoys” lose at the BayArena, this would be a definite exit in the preliminary round, provided Betis take three points in Hungary.
It is quite possible that the increasingly attacking approach of the Scots will play into the hands of the very dynamic Leverkusen attackers. But that is by no means the only reason why we prefer to bet on the hosts between Leverkusen and Celtic Glasgow.
Celtic defence with problems in European Cup
The fact that the White and Greens have already conceded ten goals in four Europa League games in 2021/22, six of them away from home alone and the remaining four in the first leg against their upcoming opponents, also underlines the Bundesliga club’s justified role as favourites. Also interesting: Including the matches in the Europa League qualifiers, keeper Joe Hart has had to make at least two saves in all four international matches this season.
Hope for a positive result, however, at least comes from the good form in the domestic league. They have not lost any of their last seven league games. The dress rehearsal in Dundee at the weekend also went according to plan, even though they conceded two goals again in a 4-2 win.
So if you prefer to bet on the goal market in the clash between the Bundesliga fourth-placed team and the current Premiership second-placed team (four points behind arch-rivals Glasgow), you should keep an eye on the Over 2.5. An attack-minded encounter seems more likely than a low-scoring encounter. Much like his counterpart, Celtic coach Postecoglou will have to do without some key professionals. Julien, Starfelt, Rogic, Taylor and Dembele are all missing through injury.
Predicted line-up of Celtic Glasgow:
Hart; Ralston, Welsh, Carter-Vickers, Juranovic; Bitton, McGregor, Turnbull; Forrest, Furuhashi, Jota
Last matches played by Celtic Glasgow:
League Cup
11/20 2021 – Celtic Glasgow 1 – 0 St. Johnstone
Premiership
11/07 2021 – Dundee FC 2 – 4 Celtic Glasgow
Europa League Grp. G
11/04 2021 – Ferencvaros 2 – 3 Celtic Glasgow
Premiership
10/30 2021 – Celtic Glasgow 0 – 0 Livingston
10/27 2021 – Hibernian 1 – 3 Celtic Glasgow
Leverkusen – Celtic Glasgow Direct comparison / H2H record
Hincapié, Wirtz, Alario and Adli scored in the first leg of Leverkusen’s commanding 4-0 win in Glasgow. It was Bayer’s first win in the first direct encounter between these two teams, and it would have stood up even at half-time. After 45 minutes, the Rhinelanders were deservedly 2-0 ahead.
Celtic’s record remains at just four wins in 25 games against German clubs. Leverkusen’s record reads far better, with three trebles, a draw and a defeat against Scottish representatives.
Leverkusen – Celtic Glasgow Tip
Bayer Leverkusen can already ensure a clear situation in Group G on Thursday evening. If the home win between Leverkusen and Celtic Glasgow pays off, the Bundesliga club will not be able to take away first place in the four-team group. Furthermore, the Scottish runners-up would be eliminated if Betis Sevilla take three points as expected in the parallel match in Budapest.
In our eyes, there is indeed a lot to suggest that the Rhinelanders will be successful. Seoane’s side have already scored eleven goals in the competition so far, won three out of four games and brought the Bhoys to their knees 4-0 in the first leg in Scotland. Furthermore, they have not lost any of their past 14 home games in the Europa League group stage. In fact, the former CL finalists have won five home matches in a row this season.
We have therefore decided to play the betting odds on the double HT1/FT1 in the clash between Leverkusen and Celtic Glasgow.
Alternatively, it is conceivable to focus on the Leverkusen handicap win (-1). At the same time, we would not rule out Wirtz, Diaby and Co. scoring at least three times, especially as Celtic have always conceded two or more goals in four European Cup matches played away from home.
