Will Bayern take care of the championship race?
FC Bayern can potentially take the decisive step towards the championship on Saturday evening as part of the 22nd matchday in the Bundesliga. If the betting tip of an away win for Munich proves to be true in the top game between Leverkusen and Bayern, the record champions would already distance the reigning double winner in the standings by eleven points. However, if the “Werkself” wins its home game, the race for the title in the German top flight would suddenly be much more exciting again.
The Rhinelanders may benefit from the fact that the guest from the Bavarian capital did not play in Glasgow until Wednesday evening and already has to play the second leg of the Champions League playoffs against Celtic on Tuesday evening. In addition, the Leverkusen vs. Bayern forecast is of course influenced by the fact that Bayer has remained unbeaten by the industry leader from the Isar five times in a row. At the beginning of December, Alonso’s team eliminated FCB from the DFB Cup with a 1-0 victory.
What both clubs have in common, by the way, is the hope that the object of desire, in the person of Florian Wirtz, will play in their own jerseys in the coming years.
Leverkusen vs. Bayern prediction AI
Somewhat surprisingly, the favorites role of Bayern in Leverkusen is supported by AI prognosis. While the bookmakers give the guest a 43% chance of winning, “BETSiE” even gives them almost 45%. However, the artificial intelligence has a completely different opinion when it comes to the number of goals. If you add the xG values of 1.02 and 1.37, you get a total value of 2.39, which is why the AI expects a maximum of two goals in the game. For Under 2.5, Betano offers a high 2.30.
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
With 46 points after 21 match days, Bayer 04 Leverkusen are once again having a formidable season. However, this undoubtedly remarkable haul, made up of 13 wins, seven draws and just a single defeat, is currently only enough for second place. Last season’s champions are eight points behind, so they will have to play for a win on Saturday evening to keep their chances of beating the defending champions. Even a draw will not be enough in the eyes of the hosts to put pressure on their direct rivals from Munich.
Is Leverkusen being portrayed as outsiders for no reason?
However, anyone who thinks that this obligation to win will lead coach Xabi Alonso to give his players a risky “all or nothing” game plan is mistaken. The former Spanish professional, who also played for FCB during his playing career, has already proven twice this season that he can be successful against the record champions with a reactive approach. In the first leg of the Bundesliga, the giants drew 1-1 at the Allianz Arena. In the cup round of 16 at the beginning of December, the Rhinelanders even had the upper hand at Fröttmaning with a 1-0 win.
Not only did Xabi Alonso become the first Bundesliga coach to remain unbeaten by Bayern in his first five competitive games (3-2-0), but home advantage at the weekend also gives all Werkself fans hope that the prediction of a home win between Leverkusen and Bayern will come true. Wirtz and Co. not only won all three Bundesliga home games in 2025, but also the last nine matches in the BayArena, including Inter Milan in the Champions League.
In general, I have the feeling that the bookmakers with a German license are somewhat underestimating the double winners of the previous season in this duel. The Bayer offense, which is full of top-class players, is able to cause problems for their opponents in every game. In only two Bundesliga games this season has the Werkself not scored. However, there have only been three clean sheets in the last twelve Bundesliga matches. As a consequence of this classification, the odds on “both teams to score” are an attractive proposition before the Leverkusen v Bayern clash.
Provisional Leverkusen line-up:
Bayern – statistics & current form
Before the season kicked off, the question was often asked whether the empire would strike back? Of course, this referred to the serial champions from Munich, who had to settle for third place last year, turned over every stone in the summer and now absolutely want to climb back to the top nationally. So far, they have emphatically succeeded in doing so, because 54 points at this point in time is the best haul of the past nine years. For the first time since summer 2020, FCB have recently landed seven Bundesliga victories in a row. The Kompany team is the only team that will still be without a point after the winter break.
What role do the CL games against Celtic play?
Nevertheless, there have been repeated phases in recent weeks in which the defense in particular has not made the best impression. Three goals conceded against Holstein Kiel, two goals conceded in the home win against VfL Wolfsburg, and three goals conceded in the 3-0 defeat in Rotterdam indicate that the Belgian coach’s still very risky football regularly goes hand in hand with chances for the respective opponent.
Only in every third game since the restart did Manuel Neuer keep a clean sheet in the FCB goal (3/9). All the more reason to consider the betting odds for goals by both teams between Leverkusen and Bayern. At Interwetten, a 1.50 can be tapped as the top quote. Personally, I like this better than the 1.62 offered in the NEO.bet app for Over 2.5.
Finally, it must be stated that two statistical worlds collide on Saturday. On the one hand, the Leverkusen team, who scored most goals in the first half and in the first quarter of an hour. On the other hand, Munich, who lead both ratings after the break. However, shifting up a gear in the second half could prove complicated at the weekend, because the preparation for this Bundesliga clash was relatively short due to the away game in Glasgow. Physically and mentally, the record champions can expect a real challenge, which in my opinion will not be overcome with a triumph.
Provisional Bayern line-up:
Leverkusen v Bayern head to head / H2H record
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have not won five consecutive competitive matches against FC Bayern. The last German club to have such a series against the long-standing industry leader was Hamburger SV from 2007 to 2009. The Werkself even won three of the five matches mentioned, including a 1-0 win in the last 16 of the 2023/24 Cup. The last two Bundesliga home games also went to the team of coach Xabi Alonso, who is therefore wrongly seen as an outsider in my opinion. At least a point should definitely be within the realm of possibility.
Leverkusen vs. Bayern tip
For the first time in the history of the Bundesliga, two teams will face each other on match day 22 that have fewer than two defeats on their account. This curious fun fact alone impressively demonstrates that we can look forward to an exciting, intense and high-class thriller in the BayArena on Saturday evening.
It is also interesting to note that in the last seven Bundesliga games between the respective league leaders and the runners-up, the leaders have only managed to retain the upper hand on a single occasion. Five draws round off this record. A point draw also seems conceivable in the direct duel at the weekend, although Munich would be much better off with it than the Werkself. For the X, you can get a whopping 3.50 in the Betway app, and a slightly better payout at Betano is possible with odds of 3.60.
Otherwise, I am convinced that both teams will score at least once. Bayern has been struggling with lapses in defense from time to time lately, but they have by far the best offense in the league. Leverkusen is always good for goals, but they won’t be able to take everything away from the FCB attack either. My primary approach is therefore to place a bet between Leverkusen and Bayern on “both teams to score”. I play the 1.50 at Interwetten with six units.
