Will the proud FCB distance the reigning champions to six points?

While the Wiesn is in full swing in Munich, the Bundesliga’s absolute top game of the season so far is taking place on Saturday evening. In the Allianz Arena, the record champions will face the reigning champions. After the “Werkself” was able to distance the industry leader from the Isar by 18 (!) Points last season and thus impressively broke into the “Mia-san-Mia” phalanx, the FCB is now insisting on revenge. With anticipation and a certain amount of tension, we analyze the signs for the top game on matchday 5 in the Bundesliga in our Bayern vs. Leverkusen betting tip.

On paper, it is Munich who are considered to have the advantage. If you want to place a bet on the home win between Bayern and Leverkusen, you can currently find betting odds of 1.72 at the top. The role of favorites for coach Vincent Kompany’s team is not without reason, but is based on their previous performances. In the last three competitive games alone, Kane and Co. scored a whopping 20 (!) goals. However, a completely different caliber and an opponent who has not lost to FCB in three consecutive duels is now waiting for the Rhinelanders.

Although the odds for Bayern against Leverkusen on the three-way market paint a supposedly clear picture in favor of the record champions and there is a widespread belief that greed has returned to the Red Devils, who have been spoiled by success after a messed-up season, there are logically many other approaches with which the top game in the German top flight can also be a complete success from a betting point of view.

Bayern vs. Leverkusen prognosis AI

First of all, it should be said that artificial intelligence also sees Bayern ahead against Leverkusen. However, the 46.85% probability of victory calculated by “BETSiE”, the Wettbasis supercomputer, does not even come close to the implicit probability of occurrence of 56% estimated by the bookmakers.

Instead, in view of the probability calculated by the AI, a value bet on Leverkusen’s away win emerges. Also, a small Asian handicap in favor of the Rhinelanders could be considered for a Bayern vs. Leverkusen AI forecast with predicted goals of 1.54 to 1.13.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

If we look at the long and successful history of FC Bayern, the Munich team has always been at its strongest when it has been offended in its pride or suddenly had to compete against an equal opponent. Once upon a time, strong years by Werder Bremen or Borussia Dortmund created a new defining era for FCB. After Leverkusen’s outstanding and dominant championship season in 2024/25, the entire Bundesliga should therefore watch out for the record champions’ reaction…

FC Bayern is the talk of the town again

The first signs of this reaction could already be seen. In the three competitive games played in the previous week, coach Vincent Kompany’s team not only celebrated three victories, but also scored a whopping 20 (!) goals. Results such as the 6-1 win against Kiel, the 9-2 win against Dinamo Zagreb and the 5-0 win against Werder Bremen impressively underline the fact that the joy of playing has returned to the Isar.

Despite these outstanding results and the 29 goals scored in the six competitive games played so far, it should not be forgotten that the star ensemble from Säbener Straße has not yet been properly challenged. Nevertheless, the defense did not always make a solid impression. In our opinion, it is quite possible that the back four of Davies, Kim, Upamecano and Guerreiro will face far greater problems on Saturday evening. Therefore, there are many indications that the odds on there being a few goals in the game will pay off in the top game between Bayern and Leverkusen.

Another factor in Munich’s favor is that they have rarely shown weakness in such top games in the past. At least when they started these encounters as league leaders. They have not lost any of the last 16 Bundesliga games in which FCB had to play against the respective second-placed team while leading the league (11-5-0). In connection with the self-confidence gained from setting the record for four match days and the fact that almost all key players are available, we expect a lively start from Kompany’s team, whose pressing will, however, repeatedly open up spaces for the opponent.

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

With an impressive 34 Bundesliga games unbeaten in a single season, Bayer 04 Leverkusen took the German football crown for the first time in 2023/24. However, this season, as can be seen from the Bundesliga championship odds, the Werkself are not considered the hottest contender for the trophy.

Leverkusen’s offense definitely doesn’t need to hide

One of the main reasons why the Rhinelanders seem beatable in the first weeks of this season and have lost the flow of the past season is undoubtedly their overly vulnerable defense. Nine goals conceded from four league games is far too high a number, which logically makes it more difficult to regularly score three times. Interesting fact: the last reigning champions to concede so many goals in the first four matchdays were 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 1998/99.

At least the offense is already back to last year’s form. In five competitive games in the league and in the Champions League, they scored a whopping 17 goals, which is more than three per match on average. Last weekend, coach Xabi Alonso’s team beat Wolfsburg 4-3. In the context of the English week, the team of coach Xabi Alonso also managed four own goals each in the matches against Feyenoord Rotterdam (4:0) and TSG Hoffenheim (4:1). Eight of the twelve goals were scored in the first 45 minutes, which is why we think it makes sense to limit a forecast for over-goals in the first half between Bayern and Leverkusen.

Finally, it should be noted that Florian Wirtz and Co. have not lost in any of their last 19 away games in the German top flight (16-3-0) and that Bayern have not been able to beat a reigning champion since 2010. Therefore, the Bayern vs. Leverkusen betting odds on the double chance X2 should not be completely disregarded. Nor should the quotes for a goal from Florian Wirtz, who is already in great early form and can/will/will make the difference with his skills in the top game on Saturday evening.

Bayern – Leverkusen direct comparison / H2H record

Do you remember Kuno Klötzer and Ernst Happel? In fact, they were the only coaches so far to remain unbeaten by Bayern in their first four meetings. Xabi Alonso can now join this elite group, as the former FCB pro from Spain scored seven out of a possible nine points from his first three matches against Munich and naturally wants to continue the series on Saturday. Regarding our assumption of a goal-filled first half, it remains to be said that in eight of the last ten BL clashes between these teams, the ball crossed the goal line at least twice before the break.

Bayern – Leverkusen betting tip

Admittedly, it would go beyond the scope here to go into the starting position before this top game in more detail. Even with great support, because Paulo Sergio, once successful with both teams, was available to answer our questions live from Brazil.

The bottom line is that we can expect an extremely exciting and probably equally spectacular football match in the Allianz Arena. Both teams are clearly strong in offense and also have a very high pressing approach. Goals seem inevitable.

Although we are not averse to a bet on the double chance X2 at the highest odds of 2.15 at Betano, our choice between Bayern and Leverkusen falls on the tip that at least two goals will be scored in the first half.