Leverkusen vs. Bayern: Will the empire strike back?

Xabi Alonso vs. Thomas Tuchel, Florian Wirtz vs. Jamal Musiala, frontrunner vs. toughest pursuer. It’s all superlatives that serve as an appetizer for Saturday evening’s clash. For the first time ever in the history of the Bundesliga, two teams with 50 or more points from their first 20 games will go head-to-head on matchday 21. The stage is therefore set for the eagerly awaited top match at the BayArena in Leverkusen, which will play a decisive role in the rest of the race for the German championship trophy.

It is already clear on paper that the betting providers are finding it extremely difficult to assign the role of favorite. Ultimately, it may even come as a surprise to many experts that the lower odds are being offered for an away win for Munich between Leverkusen and Bayern. After all, the Rhinelanders are still the only team in Europe’s top five leagues not to have lost a single competitive match in the entire 2023/24 season. However, the record champions from the Isar want to end this outstanding run and put themselves in pole position in the title fight

If the two best teams in Germany at the moment can match each other at a similarly high level as in the first half of the season, we can look forward to a great, spectacular and fast-paced duel. In mid-September, the clubs drew 2-2 at the Allianz Arena in Munich. In view of the outstanding attacking lines on both sides and their own desire to shape the game, there seems to be no alternative to predicting over-goals for the second leg between Leverkusen and Bayern on Saturday evening.

Leverkusen – statistics & current form

Bayer Leverkusen are the first four teams in Bundesliga history to remain unbeaten in their first 20 league games. A whopping 52 out of a possible 60 points are on the board. Only FC Bayern have managed to surpass this sensational figure twice in Bundesliga history at this point – in 2013/14 (56) and 2015/16 (53). Across all competitions, coach Xabi Alonso’s team have now played 30 competitive matches in the current season without defeat. It therefore seems very risky to set the odds on Leverkusen losing to Bayern in the top match of all matches.

In any case, it will be interesting to see how the Rhinelanders have coped physically with Tuesday night’s cup game. However, with three full days to recover, fatigue is unlikely to be an issue under normal circumstances. Especially not since the Werkself came back from two goals down to beat in-form Stuttgart 3-2 in the quarter-finals of the DFB Cup and even prevented extra time thanks to Jonathan Tah’s last-minute goal

Leverkusen must not deviate from their own game plan

An equally interesting question is whether Alonso’s squad might be having second thoughts in view of the outstanding opportunity to move within five points of their closest rivals in the standings. The fact is that the long-standing first division team has been in the position of being top of the table in the German top flight four times since 1979. None of these four matches were won (0-2-2). Admittedly, Bayer have never been as strong, dominant and ruthless as they are at the moment

For Spanish head coach Xabi Alonso, this match will also be a baptism of fire as part of the 21st matchday in the Bundesliga. If the former Bayern professional does not lose against his former employer in his third match as coach, he would follow in the footsteps of a certain Julian Nagelsmann, who also remained unbeaten in his first three Bundesliga matches against FCB. The soccer coach, who has been heavily courted by Liverpool FC and is being touted as a potential successor to Klopp, will once again demand courage and conviction from his team. It seems almost impossible that the unbeaten league leaders will deviate from their own approach. This is one of the reasons why a prediction of over-goals seems promising in the run-up to this Leverkusen v Bayern clash.

In 15 out of 20 Bundesliga games of the Werkself, the over 2.5 would have gone through. Across all competitions, at least three goals were scored in 24 of 30 competitive matches involving B04. Including in the top games against RB Leipzig (3:2, 3:2), Bayern (2:2) and in the DFB Cup against VfB Stuttgart (3:2). With the exception of Boniface, Xabi Alonso has a virtually full squad to choose from. There is still a small chance that Palacios will play, although he is still struggling with the effects of a muscle injury and will probably be replaced by Robert Andrich on the double-six.

Predicted Leverkusen line-up:

Bayern – Statistics & current form

In view of the turmoil within the club, the ongoing debate as to whether Thomas Tuchel is the right coach for the record champions and the embarrassing elimination from the DFB Cup, FCB’s really strong Bundesliga season so far has definitely been somewhat overlooked. Although the dominance of the past has been lost, 16 wins, two draws and only two defeats after 20 match days is of course an excellent record, which would probably have been enough for first place in the intermediate standings in over 90% of all previous Bundesliga seasons.

At the moment, however, the southern Germans still have an equal opponent ahead of them, which has generally spurred Munich on in the past. On the one hand, this is made clear by the fact that Bayern have not lost any of the last 21 (!) Bundesliga matches in which the first and second teams have met (14-7-0). On the other hand, the victories against VfB Stuttgart (3-0) and Borussia Dortmund (4-0) underline the fact that Tuchel’s team can always step up a gear when they have their backs to the wall and absolutely need to pick up three points

Will Munich start like a fire department?

The second-placed team in the table, who will be called upon again on Wednesday evening in the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie against Lazio Roma, undoubtedly have an attacking side. The men from the Isar have already scored 59 goals in 20 league games. In 17 of these 20 matches, a prediction of over 2.5 would have come true.

In twelve of the 20 matches, two or more goals were scored in the first 45 minutes. No team has scored more goals in the first half of a match than the star ensemble from Säbener Straße. If you also believe in a high-scoring first half in the top match at the BayArena, you can pick up attractive odds for the Over 1.5 (1st half) in the Leverkusen v Bayern duel

Personally, there are still many question marks at FC Bayern

Finally, of course, the tense personnel situation at the chasing pack needs to be addressed. Davies, Coman, Laimer and Gnabry will definitely be out. There is still hope for Kimmich and Upamecano, but they were also unavailable recently and are still questionable. Manuel Neuer and Asian Cup returnee Kim, on the other hand, should be fit on time. So the question remains as to who will defend at left-back? Should it be Raphael Guerreiro, Frimpong’s speed advantage on Bayer’s right attacking side is considerable and could well become the X-factor.

However, the individual quality of Harry Kane or Leroy Sané must also be explicitly emphasized. The German international tops the Bundesliga assist list with eleven assists, but has only been involved in a goal every 436 minutes in his games against Leverkusen so far. Even more impressive are the statistics of Harry Kane, who now has 24 goals and will of course be a potential goalscorer again on Saturday evening. The 2.10 for a goal from the top scorer is also included in our top tip table.

Predicted Bayern line-up:

Leverkusen – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H result

Bayer Leverkusen’s record against Bayern is not particularly positive. Of a total of 89 meetings in the German top flight, the Werkself have only won 19 to date. This compares to 18 draws and a whopping 52 wins for Munich, who have already celebrated 19 victories in the BayArena alone in the Bundesliga.

Most recently, however, FCB did not necessarily cover themselves in glory against the Werkself coached by Xabi Alonso. The Rhinelanders won 2-1 at home in the second half of the 2022-23 season, while the championship contenders drew 2-2 in the first leg of the current campaign. Kane and Grimaldo scored in the first half before Goretzka put Bayern back in front in the 86th minute. However, as so often this season, Bayer Leverkusen had the last word. Last-minute expert Palacios gave Leverkusen a point on the Isar with his goal in the fourth minute of stoppage time

Leverkusen – Bayern betting tip

It’s the game of games in this year’s Bundesliga season. Just two points currently separate Bayer Leverkusen and FC Bayern Munich in the table. Can the Werkself take a decisive lead with a three-pointer or will the empire from Säbener Straße strike back? The answer can be found live on Sky on Saturday evening from 18:30. Never before in the history of the best soccer league in Germany have two teams with a combined 102 (!) points faced off on matchday 21.

It is very difficult to identify advantages for one of the two teams. However, we would actually agree with the bookmakers’ assessment and prefer a bet on the visiting team in the Leverkusen v Bayern clash. In such top matches, the record champions are not only particularly motivated, but have also built up a certain aura over the years. It’s not for nothing that none of the last 21 top matches between the first and second-placed teams have been lost from FCB’s point of view

However, it should be far less risky to play the odds on the over 2.5 between Leverkusen and Bayern. The offensive lines of both teams are outstandingly good. Individual quality combined with automated sequences and an outstanding threat from set pieces should, under normal circumstances, ensure that three or more goals are scored during the course of the match. At first glance, the 1.52 looks rather staid, but we play with eight units