Will Augsburg help Bayern win the championship?

The final decision in the Bundesliga title race is coming up this weekend. If Leverkusen and Augsburg draw and Bayern win their home game against FSV Mainz 05, Bayern’s lead would grow to more than nine points with three games remaining. In any case, the deep belief in a record-breaking comeback in the Rhineland has long since evaporated, so that the Fuggerstadt team can also calculate serious chances of scoring points against the (still) reigning double winners.

Especially in recent weeks, coach Xabi Alonso’s team has found it very difficult to bring its available horsepower to bear on the pitch. Even the recent comeback of Florian Wirtz has not been able to bring about any lasting change in this regard. Especially against good, multi-legged defensive lines, the Werkself found few solutions and also lacked almost all of the conviction they showed last season. This is one of the reasons why the prediction of another low-scoring game seems absolutely obvious ahead of Leverkusen’s match against Augsburg.

Leverkusen vs. Augsburg prediction AI

Taking into account a lot of relevant data and after 20,000 game simulations, the supercomputer has come up with xG values of 1.56 and 0.51, which on the one hand underline the Rhinelanders’ relatively clear favoritism, but on the other hand also point to a match with few goals. Adding the two xG figures mentioned above, the total value is 2.07, meaning that the Leverkusen vs. Augsburg AI prediction clearly points to a maximum of two goals in 90 minutes.

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

Is Bayer 04 Leverkusen facing a sell-off and thus the abrupt end of a short but very dominant era? This is the question that the decision-makers at last season’s double winners are facing in recent days and weeks, and it is anything but unjustified.

Jonathan Tah has already announced his departure, coach Xabi Alonso is being touted as the hottest candidate to replace Carlo Ancelotti at Real Madrid, and the ongoing transfer speculation surrounding Florian Wirtz could quickly gain momentum in the summer. Frimpong, Grimaldo and Granit Xhaka are also eyeing new challenges if the club fails to offer them clear prospects for the future.

Leverkusen has scored at most one goal in six of its last ten Bundesliga games

In a sense, it has become clear in recent weeks, especially after the embarrassing exit from the DFB Cup and the hopeless defeat against Bayern in the Champions League, that the ease of the championship season has been lost. The Werkself have won only three of their last six league games, failing to win their last two in a row against Union Berlin (0-0) and St. Pauli (1-1) and struggling to a lucky 1-0 win in Heidenheim before that.

In view of their recent performances, the second-placed team, who need to pick up nine (!) points more than the leaders from Munich in the remaining four games to defend their Bundesliga title, continue to be overrated by the most popular bookmakers. The Alonso team has scored more than one goal in only two of its last six Bundesliga matches, winning just one of its last four home games and failing to score in three of those four matches in front of its own fans. There is therefore definitely no value in the Leverkusen vs. Augsburg odds for a home win.

A more exciting bet would be that the home side will not leave the pitch as losers, but that the spectators at the BayArena will once again not see many goals. It would be preferable to narrow down the time frame again, because although the Werkself – together with FCB – scored the most goals in the first 45 minutes, there was a maximum of one goal in six of the last eight first halves in B04 home games. In five of the last six league matches, the under 1.5 (1st half) would also have been successful, which can therefore be used as a basis for a combined Leverkusen vs. Augsburg prediction.

Augsburg – Statistics & current form

FC Augsburg is and remains the surprise team of the Bundesliga’s second half of the season. Only Bayern and Leverkusen have recorded more points than the Fuggerstadt club in the 13 games played so far in the second half of the season, with a remarkable record of six wins, six draws, and just one defeat. Their only defeat came in a 3-1 loss to Munich, which was only made possible by a controversial red card for Cedric Zesiger. Playing competitive matches against FCA is currently about as much fun for their opponents as training in 35-degree heat during the summer break.

Will Augsburg keep a clean sheet again in the first half?

Because coach Jess Thorup’s team achieved a 0-0 draw against third-placed Frankfurt last week with a perfidious mixture of luck, passion, and skill against third-placed Frankfurt last week and is also enjoying the best season in the club’s Bundesliga history with 43 points after 30 matchdays, there is certainly value to be had in the betting odds for a draw ahead of Leverkusen’s clash with Augsburg.

At Merkur Bets, you can get 5.25 at the top for the X and also use the Merkur Bets new customer bonus. Incidentally, the fact that both teams have drawn ten times in the current season – the highest number in the league!

Alternatively, there are of course plenty of indications that suggest a low-scoring 90 minutes. Only one of the last 15 Bundesliga matches involving FCA has seen more than three goals. Looking back at the last ten encounters in the German top flight, a bet on 0-0 at half-time would have been successful in 70% of cases. It is quite possible that fans at the BayArena will once again have to wait a long time for the first goal on Saturday, especially as Thorup’s team will, as usual, focus on defense. This approach has helped the Fuggerstadt team to remain unbeaten away from home in 2025 (5-3-0). Winamax is offering impressive odds of 3.20 for a goalless first half online this weekend.

Leverkusen – Augsburg Head-to-head / H2H record

The head-to-head record between these clubs speaks for itself in favor of Leverkusen. In 27 meetings in the German top flight to date, the Swabians have only managed to take all three points twice. Bayer have won 18 times and drawn seven times. On average, FCA has earned 0.48 points against the Werkself, which is as few as against any other current first division team. Leverkusen won the first leg at the WWK Arena 2-0. It was the fifth Bundesliga duel in a row in which a maximum of three goals were scored.

Leverkusen – Augsburg Tip

At the moment, there are many indications that Xabi Alonso will be giving his instructions in the BayArena coaching zone for the penultimate time on Saturday afternoon. The Spaniard is set to join Real Madrid and is therefore on his personal farewell tour, even if this has not yet been officially confirmed.

In general, one cannot shake the feeling that the Werkself are already in holiday mode. Recently, there have been a number of poor performances, primarily due to a lack of punch in attack and a lack of conviction on the ball. Under these circumstances, it is not a good idea to bet on low odds for a home win in the 31st round of the Bundesliga this weekend.

Instead, my approach is to reduce the risk a little and go for the double chance 1X. I’m combining the second-placed team getting a point with a maximum of one goal in the first 45 minutes, which is self-explanatory given the statistics and approach of both teams.

Augsburg’s defense in particular has been almost impenetrable in the second half of the season. Thorup’s team has not lost away from home in the 2025 calendar year. I am therefore leaning towards a Leverkusen vs. Augsburg tip of 1X & Under 1.5 (1st half), which I am betting on at maximum odds of 1.62 with six units.