Will Leverkusen make it to the final under high pressure?

The Werkself from Leverkusen has not been able to get rid of the nickname “Vizekusen” for a long time. Younger football fans in particular will wonder where this dubious title came from in the first place. Apart from several German vice-championships at the end of the nineties and the beginning of the 2000s, it is mainly based on the 2002 season. Possibly the best Bayer team of all time dominated the Bundesliga at times at will and reached both the DFB Cup final and the Champions League final. But due to injuries and a lack of power in the final spurt, they frittered away all titles and finished second three times.

But this Thursday, Bayer 04 have a huge chance to finally clean up that image and take a huge step towards winning their first title of the millennium. In the Europa League semi-final between Leverkusen and AS Roma, a prediction on the German representative is anything but unrealistic. Bayer has the home advantage and the necessary quality to defeat the Romans. However, the seventh-placed team in the table also carries a burden from the first leg.

At the Stadio Olimpico, it was a very cautious game between equals, with Bayer getting off to the better start. But after two unused big chances, it remained quiet for a long time before Roma scored completely out of nowhere in the second period. For coach Jose Mourinho, 1-0 is the perfect result and that’s exactly what happened until the end.

A draw would have been more appropriate, and Bayer had bad luck with injuries. Andrich and Kossounu will miss the second leg. Nevertheless, everything is possible for the Rhinelanders before the clash between Leverkusen and AS Roma, betting odds on a home triumph are at 2.00. Should this be close, however, it would first go into extra time. The Werkself will only make it to the final if they win by a two-goal margin.

So either way, the home win is imperative to have any chance at all of getting a ticket to the final. The Werkself will have to unpack their offensive qualities again, which were relatively passively lived in the first leg. At some point, Alonso will have to put his cards on the table and risk more. Any draw or defeat would of course mean certain elimination just before the big goal.

In the final, the winner of the duel between Juventus Turin and Sevilla FC awaits, so that would also be a feasible task. All in all, it is the most important match of the remaining season for both teams and of course a tip on Leverkusen against AS Roma should also be considered. Kick-off for the hot dance in the BayArena is on Thursday at 9 pm, RTL will broadcast live. So the whole of Germany can watch on free TV whether there will be another international title for a Bundesliga club at club level.

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

At the beginning of the year, anyone who would have predicted that Bayer 04 Leverkusen would be the last German representative on the international stage in May would only have shaken their heads. The Werkself got off to the worst possible start to the season and was second to last in the German Bundesliga when Xabi Alonso took over. Under the Spaniard, things also went anything but smoothly at the beginning, but through consistent work, the former world-class player has grabbed his players and lifted them to a new level.

In between 14 games unbeaten

Bayer had a run of 14 unbeaten games in a row before it was halted on the penultimate matchday in the Rhineland derby against 1. FC Köln, of all teams. Leverkusen were perhaps already thinking about the European stage, some players were already spared for the duel with the Italians.

But in the end it was of little use. They lost the first leg at the Olimpico with 0:1, defensively they played solidly to well. But there was too little going forward and the individual big chances were missed. In addition, leading player Robert Andrich was injured and will be out for the rest of the season, bringing back memories of 2002 for the older Bayer fans. Back then, leader Jens Nowotny was seriously injured in the semi-finals and was sorely missed in the final games of the season.

But back to the here and now. Against a Mourinho eleven, a 0:1 is already a heavy burden, but Bayer certainly has the qualities to make up for this deficit, especially in front of a home crowd. It will depend on the top stars Florian Wirtz and Moussa Diaby, who played weakly by their standards in the first leg. Defensively, mistakes like the one before the 0:1 will not be allowed and goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky will certainly need a great day. But the belief in a comeback is palpable at Leverkusen and that is encouraging. The former Champions League finalist has a strong resilience this season.

In the league, there is little at stake for Alonso’s men; at most, they can still reach the Conference League. The Europa League, on the other hand, offers Champions League qualification for the coming season. Thursday is therefore the day of truth and lucrative odds await Leverkusen against AS Roma if the Werkself is to progress.

Alonso will also be important, as this is the second time in a very short time that he has had to face his own ex-coach and tactician Mourinho. In the first leg, he chose a defensive tactic that could have led to success with more offensive efficiency. Now he needs new ideas to crack the Roman defence under pressure. For the Spaniard, too, it is certainly his biggest game as a man on the sidelines.

Last games of Leverkusen:

Bundesliga

• 14/05/2023 – VfB Stuttgart 1 – 1 Bayer Leverkusen

Europa League Final Stage

• 12/05/2023 – AS Roma 1 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga

• 06/05/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 1 – 2 1. FC Köln
• 29/04/2023 – Union Berlin 0 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
• 23/04/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 0 RB Leipzig

AS Roma – Statistics & current form

What’s up with Jose Mourinho? The coaching legend is spending his second spell at AS Roma and once again the success of the season hinges on an international title. Already disgracefully eliminated by Cremonese in the national cup, far from the Champions League ranks in the league, everything is at stake for the visitors from the Italian capital on Thursday as well! Mourinho is already being linked by the media to Paris St Germain. Should he also win the Europa League in his second year, they would surely build a monument to him in Rome.

Dependent on Juve in the league

The Romans are only sixth in the domestic league and would only have a realistic chance of CL qualification if Juventus are taken off the points again, which is still a distinct possibility. Not having things in his own hands is not something Mourinho likes. Perhaps that is why the former Real coach has become more of a specialist in knockout games in recent years.

You don’t need a fortune teller’s ball to predict that Roma will be more defensive in Leverkusen. Keeper Patricio has great quality, but is always good for a mistake. The defence around Celik and Cristante is one of the best in Italy.

So it will be difficult for Leverkusen if the Romans reach normal form. Up front, the absolute top star Paulo Dybala is still missing, but he came on late in the first leg despite an injury. Mourinho will not spare the Argentine when it counts, not even in Leverkusen.

With Abraham, Wijnaldum and Pellegrini, the Italians also have a lot more quality in their squad. Aggressive counterattacking suits the men from the Eternal City, so the advantage from the first leg should play into their hands.

All in all, the visitors are favourites to progress in the clash between Leverkusen and AS Roma, and the odds on Rome reaching the final are only around 1.50. If you take Mourinho’s strength in knockout matches into account, the bookmakers’ tendency is also understandable from our point of view.

Last matches of AS Roma:

Serie A

• 14/05/2023 – Bologna 0 – 0 AS Roma

Europa League Final Stage

• 12/05/2023 – AS Roma 1 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen

Serie A

• 06/05/2023 – AS Roma 0 – 2 Inter Milan
• 04/05/2023 –  Monza 1 – 1 AS Roma
• 29/04/2023 – AS Roma 1 – 1 AC Milan

Leverkusen – AS Roma Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

There have been five games in total between the two opponents so far, two of which have gone to Roma and one to Bayer. There have also been two draws.

In the first leg, Roma celebrated victory with a goal from Edoardo Bove, the homegrown player putting Leverkusen in trouble time and again.

Leverkusen – AS Roma Tip

It’s an absolute cracker that awaits football fans on Thursday. For the home side, it is the second biggest chance in this millennium to win an international title and for Roma it is also the biggest game of the year so far. The victory in the first leg and Mourinho’s strength in important knockout games make the Romans favourites to progress. But still, Bayer 04 has the home advantage and the team has already shown under Alonso that it can perform in very important games.

Leverkusen have always been strong on the international stage under the Spaniard when everything was at stake. So why not in the second leg between Leverkusen and AS Roma? Predictions on the home side bring mediocre odds, but for the Werkself to progress they are over 2.50. Even though this means we go against the slight favourites, we opt for a win for the Alonso men due to the lucrative odds.

Thursday’s game is predetermined. Rome will be extremely defensive and sooner or later Leverkusen will have to try vehemently to break down the Italian defence. Florian Wirtz will play a decisive role in this, possibly something could also happen on the wings with Diaby and Co.

Leverkusen vs. AS Rome offers very good odds for bets on the home side reaching the final. Even though the overall tendency is slightly towards Roma, the betting odds of over 2.50 are the deciding factor. We will go with the Werkself in the semi-final. We are investing five units in our tip.