Can the Werkself confirm their opening victory?
Only Real Madrid have won the European Cup more often (15 times) than AC Milan (seven times). A corresponding treat is in store on Tuesday evening when the Rossoneri will be guests in the BayArena for the first time ever. In principle, however, the tip for Leverkusen against AC Milan is a home win for the Werkself, although a few points also speak in favor of the Italians.
On the one hand, the Rossoneri have only lost one of their last eight Champions League games against Bundesliga representatives (three wins, four draws). And secondly, the Rhinelanders have only won two of their last twelve matches in the premier class against Italian teams (four draws, six defeats). Nevertheless, our prediction for the Werkself leans towards Leverkusen against AC Milan, who have not lost in nine home games in UEFA competitions (six wins, three draws).
The black and reds have also got off to a much better start. Bayer Leverkusen celebrated a 4-0 opening victory at Feyenoord Rotterdam and are currently ranked third in the Champions League league phase table, which is not very meaningful yet. The Lombards, on the other hand, lost 1-3 at home to Liverpool FC at San Siro, but then won the Derby della Madonnina against Inter Milan 2-1.
We think that the Rossoneri will get a point in a game in which we do not expect too many goals. We therefore recommend the combined tip on the double chance 1X at under 4.5 goals. Alternatively, you could also consider the more neutral bet on under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.58 at Merkur Bets.
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
After spectacularly winning the double and reaching the Europa League final, Bayer 04 Leverkusen are now in the tricky situation of somehow having to confirm these successes and cope with the drastically increased expectations in the environment.
The fact that there was an early setback in the 3-2 home defeat to RB Leipzig on matchday 2 of the Bundesliga was perhaps not a bad thing. They then went on to record three brilliant wins in a row against Hoffenheim (4-1), Feyenoord (4-0) and Wolfsburg (4-3).
Can Leverkusen match their 2001/02 season?
In the top match against the reinvigorated Bavarians, the black and reds also scored in the Allianz Arena on Saturday evening (1:1). However, the first task is to confirm their commanding opening victory in the Champions League league phase.
For only the second time in the club’s history, Bayer Leverkusen could now win the first two Champions League games of a season. The last time the “Werkself” managed this, they went all the way to the grand final, which was lost 2-1 to Real Madrid in 2001/02.
Leverkusen is on its way to old compactness
In principle, the tip for Leverkusen to win at home against AC Milan is under a lucky star. After all, Xabi Alonso’s team has won the last nine European competitive games in their own stadium (six wins, three draws).
However, the black and reds need to work on their defensive stability. Bayer 04 have kept a clean sheet in each of their last two Champions League games. In the Bundesliga, however, they have conceded a whopping ten goals in five matches. One ray of hope, though, is that the extremely potent Bayern offense has recently been taken out of the game.
AC Milan – Statistics & current form
AC Milan have already won the coveted trophy seven times in the club’s history. However, the Rossoneri last achieved this feat 18 years ago.
This is also due to the fact that the team did not get off to a good start in the 2024/25 season. They almost parted ways with new coach Paulo Fonseca, who went into the Derby della Madonnina in a very vulnerable position but then surprisingly managed to win 2-1.
AC Milan also got off to a weak start internationally
In any case, the Lombards have now won three Serie A games in a row and have climbed back to third place. However, there was disappointment in the Champions League group stage at the start. 1:3 was the score at the end of the first matchday against Liverpool FC.
Although the Rossoneri are taking part in their 21st Champions League final, they could now start the competition with two defeats for only the second time ever. This is supported by the fact that they have only won one of their last seven Champions League first legs (five draws, one defeat).
Defensive deficits in AC Milan’s opening game
Even now, the odds are clearly against “Il Diavolo” when Leverkusen play AC Milan. However, the returns are correspondingly high for anyone who really wants to take this risky outsider tip.
If they are to get a point in the Rhineland, Paulo Fonseca’s team definitely need more defensive stability. In the opening game against Liverpool, the Rossoneri allowed 11 shots on their own goal – the club’s highest since data collection began in the 2003/04 season. Only Dinamo Zagreb (6.3) and Slovan Bratislava (3.8) therefore had a higher expected goals against value than AC Milan (3.1) on matchday 1.
Leverkusen – AC Milan Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 0 – 0 – 0
Although both teams have often played against a club from the opponent’s country, the two clubs have never met each other directly. Consequently, there is no “head to head” data that could influence the forecast in one way or another for Leverkusen against AC Milan.
Leverkusen – AC Milan Tip
The betting odds for Leverkusen against AC Milan are remarkably in favor of the Rhinelanders. In view of the fact that the Rossoneri have already had a few slip-ups in the young 2024/25 season (for example, the 2-1 defeat in Parma), it also makes sense to back the German double winners, who have not been beaten in nine European competitive games at the BayArena (six wins, three draws). Most recently, however, the Italians have recorded three consecutive Serie A victories. So the Lombardian chest is a little bit wider again.
A point for the Rossoneri, who have always held their own against German clubs, is not out of the question. We also expect a tactical and defensively oriented game, which is why we ultimately recommend the double chance 1X at under 4.5 goals.
Leverkusen v AC Milan odds of 1.57 are available for this, which we are playing with four units at Betway.
