Levante are clutching at the last straw
A total of six teams still have to seriously fear for their survival in La Liga. Four regular match days are still to be played before it is clear which three clubs will have to go down the bitter path to the second division. Levante, who are six points off the bottom of the league, are currently in the worst position.
For the club from Valencia, the home match on Friday evening at the start of the 35th matchday is therefore of crucial importance. The home side desperately need a three-pointer to keep their small remaining chance alive. But if we believe the odds before the clash between Levante and Real Sociedad, then the task against the slightly favoured Basques will be quite complicated.
This assessment seems justified at first glance, because the club from San Sebastian is currently in sixth place and also needs every point in the race for the international starting positions.
The prediction of the outcome of the match between Levante and Real Sociedad will depend on which team manages to impose its own style of play on the opponent. While the relegation candidates play forward regardless of losses, it is primarily the defence that has been convincing for RSSS this season.
Levante – Statistics & current form
For the fifth year in a row, Levante are on the road in the top flight. For the club, which was even represented in the group stage of the Europa League in 2012/13, but was eventually relegated to the second division in 2015/16, only to be immediately promoted again in the following season, the last four matchdays are all about avoiding another stint in the second division. However, this undertaking could turn out to be a suicide mission for two reasons.
On the one hand, the Blue and Reds have a demanding remaining programme with home games against RSSS and Alaves and two away games at Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano. On the other hand, the team is currently six points behind the safety net.
Because in the Spanish top flight, the direct comparison and not the goal difference is used for equal points, the team of coach Alessio Lisci needs even seven points more than Cadiz in the upcoming matches. Only against Mallorca would they have the upper hand in the event of equal points.
Levante must get a grip on defence
The starting position therefore promises little room for manoeuvre. Every match is a final; slips are virtually forbidden. As in the past few weeks, the home side can be expected to take all the risks and play for victory. This approach has had a negative effect on their defensive stability recently, as they have conceded exactly three goals in four of their last eight league games.
However, if you exclude the two most recent home games against Sevilla and Barcelona, both of which were lost 3-2, it is clear that the Azulgranas are on the one hand stronger at home and on the other hand have conceded far fewer goals.
Not nearly as much spectacle in home games as away
In eleven of the 14 matches played at home from the end of August to the beginning of April, the bet on the under 3.5 would have gone through. In the same period, however, there were only three home victories, so that on Friday evening between Levante and Real Sociedad the bet on X2 & under 3.5 can be played with a clear conscience.
Over the course of the season, only promoted Cadiz have scored fewer points at home than the current bottom team, which would have to start planning for the coming second division season at the latest in the event of another defeat – the fifth in the past nine matches. With Roger Marti, Shkodran Mustafi, Jorge de Frutos and Carlos Clerc, four players are still out due to injury.
Predicted Levante line-up:
Cardenas; Miramon, Rober, Duarte, Vezo, Son; Bardhi, Pepelu, Campana; Morales, D Gomez
Last matches played by Levante:
La Liga
30/04/2022 – Valencia 1 – 1 Levante
21/04/2022 – Levante 2 – 3 Sevilla FC
17/04/2022 – Granada 1 – 4 Levante
11/04/2022 – Levante 2 – 3 FC Barcelona
02/04/2022 – Levante 2 – 0 FC Villarreal
Real Sociedad – Statistics & current form
Only Real Madrid, FC Barcelona and FC Sevilla have suffered fewer defeats in La Liga this season than Real Sociedad. The fact that the Basques, with their eight defeats from 34 games, are still not in fourth place in the standings is primarily due to the numerous point-splits. In eleven cases, “La Real” had to settle for a draw.
Another shortcoming of Imanol Alguacil’s team throughout the year is the lack of forward play. Just 33 of their own goals were scored after 34 match days. Only four other teams have scored fewer goals. By comparison, the upcoming opponents from Valencia, who scored 30 points (!) less in total, scored nine times more than the white and blue team.
Offensive harmless, defensive stable
Of course, the other side of the coin is the outstanding defence, which has only conceded 32 goals and is therefore in third place in a league comparison behind the defences of Sevilla and Real Madrid. In the last 16 league matches, only the newly crowned champions from the capital and Athletic Bilbao were able to score more than once against the RSSS defence. In 14 of the aforementioned 16 matches involving the Alguacil eleven, a bet on the under 3.5 would have paid off.
In addition, it should be noted that the form of the sixth-placed team in the table, which is only five points behind a direct CL place and wants to win at least one ticket for the Europa League 2022/23, is absolutely respectable.
One defeat in the last seven league games and two defeats in the last ten La Liga games underline this impressively. In 80% of these matches, the tip RSSS or X + Under 3.5 would have gone through. Consequently, we are anything but averse to playing the odds for the combined bet between Levante and Real Sociedad as well. Even though the list of players such as Mikel Oyarzabal, Nacho Monreal, Carlos Fernandez or Ander Barrenetxea reads very prominently, the Basques have recently proven several times that they can cope well with these absences.
Predicted line-up of Real Sociedad:
Remiro; Zaldua, Elustondo, Le Normand, Rico; Merino, Rafinha, D Silva; Januzaj, Sorloth, Isak
Last matches played by Real Sociedad:
La Liga
01/05/2022 – Rayo Vallecano 1 – 1 Real Sociedad
22/04/2022 – Real Sociedad 0 – 1 FC Barcelona
16/04/2022 – Real Sociedad 0 – 0 Real Betis
10/04/2022 – Elche 1 – 2 Real Sociedad
05/04/2022 – Real Sociedad 1 – 0 Espanyol
Levante – Real Sociedad Direct comparison / H2H record
For the 26th time, the two clubs will face each other in Spanish La Liga on Friday night. With nine wins, nine draws and seven defeats, Levante lead the direct comparison somewhat surprisingly. Seven of the aforementioned nine victories have come in front of a home crowd.
However, Real Sociedad have lost only one of their last eight direct encounters. The Basques won the most recent two encounters by a narrow 1:0 margin, and we think a similar result is quite realistic this time as well.
Levante – Real Sociedad tip
In many European leagues, matches are already on the agenda this weekend in which nothing is at stake for either team. On the other hand, two teams that are still struggling to reach their goal of the season will duel at the start of the fourth-last matchday in the Spanish La Liga. For the home side, it’s about staying in the league; the visitors want to at least secure the right to start in the Europa League.
In view of these different ambitions, it is understandable that slightly lower betting odds are offered on an away win between Levante and Real Sociedad. “La Real” will thus go into the encounter as razor-thin favourites and will be relying first and foremost on their good form of just one defeat in the past seven league games on Friday night.
In the introduction, we asked which of the two teams would be able to impose their own style of play on their opponents. Our answer is: RSSS. We are convinced that the white-blue team with its balanced approach will ensure that fewer goals are scored. The partly practised “run & gun” game of the hosts will therefore probably not come into its own as desired.
