Now it’s down to the wire

The final act of the season promises to be a hot one. The first leg ended in a goalless draw in the Basque Country. Thus, all tips are still high for UD Levante against Deportivo Alaves. After the first exchange of blows, both sides will now be tinkering to achieve the big goal in the last game of the long second division season. Promotion to La Liga Santander is at stake.

Suited to the statistical starting position before the duel, the Basques appeared attack-minded in the first encounter. The visitors once again made a name for themselves with their stubborn defence. Thus, another close fight is in store for the second leg at the Ciudad de Valencia. It is therefore obvious that UD Levante and Deportivo Alaves are closely matched in terms of betting odds.

The approach in the final duel will be exciting. Due to the special regulations in the promotion play-offs of the Smartbank league, no winner is needed for a victory. Should they part with a draw at the end of the match, either the final table or the away goals rule will decide in the end. This should be kept in mind when looking at UD Levante and Deportivo Alaves and their predictions.

Levante – Statistics & current form

The Granotas (frogs) have the luxury of playing the final in their own pond. That could well make the difference in the end. In terms of pure play and quality, the first leg did not reveal any major differences.

My home is my castle

Over the whole season, Levante have a very strong home record. In the 21 home games, eleven wins and seven draws were achieved. Only three times did they leave the Ciudad de Valencia as losers. 25:11 goals speak an equally clear language. Accordingly, the odds on UD Levante vs. Deportivo Alaves point to a win for the Valencianos. In the semi-final, they were able to dispatch Albacete with a total score of 6:1 (3:0 at home), which now results in a total goal difference of +17. More than enough, if a single goal can do it.

Take it easy

The first leg also showed quite clearly the quality of the Blue and Reds and disproved a frequent claim. Ball possession does not equal game control. Although Alaves had a total of 55% of the ball and according to the statistics even 97 attacks, the visitors had heartily few problems with them. In the entire match, Femenias only had to get his gloves dirty twice in the Levante goal. Otherwise, the visitors stood in the tried and tested 4-4-2 and simply let the Basque attacking storm pass by.

Watching the game, you didn’t get the feeling that the visitors were worried. On the contrary, they gave the impression of wanting to play the away game in a calm and controlled manner. The opponents kept the ball and when there was a moment of change, they rushed forward. That this visually somewhat cynical approach almost bore fruit is shown by the expected goals, which at 0.68, with a defensive basic alignment, look quite respectable. Even though another nil would level the way to La Liga, one can assume that the Granotas will have a more ambitious offensive performance.

Last games of Levante:

LaLiga2 Playoff

• 12/06/2023 – Deportivo Alaves 0 – 0 Levante
• 08/06/2023 – Levante 3 – 0 Albacete
• 04/06/2023 – Albacete 1 – 3 Levante

LaLiga2

• 28/05/2023 – Levante 2 – 1 Real Oviedo
• 20/05/2023 – Villarreal B 2 – 3 Levante

Deportivo Alaves – Statistics & current form

After failing to take anything of note at home, Alaves must now pull the coals out of the fire away from home. The approach to the game will hardly change. The only thing that needs to be increased is the punch. Otherwise, the most thankless of all final positions is threatened: fourth place.

Homesickness

When UD Levante and Deportivo Alaves are mentioned in predictions, it is often to the disadvantage of the Basques. For one thing, the last victory was almost two whole years ago. For another, the Blue and Whites are often a good guest. Outside the Basque Country, they have six wins in 21 attempts, but also eight defeats. The goal difference of 19:22 is no mean feat either.

This was also evident in the semi-final, when they could not get beyond a 1-1 draw away from home against Eibar and then secured promotion at home with a 2-0 win. Unfortunately, however, they had already missed that joker with a 0-0 draw. When you think back to their last performance in Valencia (0:2), the visitors from northern Spain will have to come up with something.

Much ado about nothing

What influences the tips in UD Levante vs. Deportivo Alaves to the disadvantage of the guests is also the performance from the first leg. Although they had a slight advantage with the 55% possession mentioned above, they could not really shine away from it. They had eight shots on target and two on goal. Levante managed eleven and four. On the positive side, the visitors had 97 attacks (Levante only 62), but only 30 of them were dangerous (Levante 20). This results in an expected goals ratio of 0.31.

Considering that Alaves were sixth in the final table in terms of goals scored and thus above Levante, these are devastating figures if you want to get promoted. An optimist now sees that Levante will act a little more offensively at home, which will allow them spaces on the counter-attack. However, this is where one has to catch on. The attacking thesis may be likely, but the La Liga 2 regulations are perhaps the biggest horse’s mouth here. Alaves must win, Levante a goalless draw is enough. Judging by how much trouble they had with the visitors’ counterattacks in the first leg (20:17 fouls and 3:1 yellow cards), the second leg looks a tricky affair for the visitors.

Last matches of Deportivo Alaves:

LaLiga2 Playoff

• 12/06/2023 – Deportivo Alaves 0 – 0 Levante
• 09/06/2023 – Deportivo Alaves 2 – 0 Eibar
• 03/06/2023 – Eibar 1 – 1 Deportivo Alaves

LaLiga2

• 28/05/2023 – Las Palmas 0 – 0 Deportivo Alaves
• 20/05/2023 – Deportivo Alaves 2 – 1 Malaga

Levante – Deportivo Alaves Direct comparison / H2H balance

The direct comparison has changed only marginally since the last meeting. Levante have won three and drawn three of their last ten matches. The visitors from the Basque Country have won four times. The last Alaves triumph dates back to 2021. Since then, there have only been more victories and the draw in the first leg for the men from Valencia. So the odds on a home win at UD Levante and Deportivo Alaves are definitely favoured.

Levante – Deportivo Alaves Tip

The first leg showed that today’s guests, present a well-oiled game. Attack after attack rolled towards the Levante goal. The problem? Despite all the superiority, nothing compelling came out of it. If they again fail to come up with any sparkling ideas in the second leg, time will become a factor at some point.

For the Granotas, the match plan is very simple. A win gets you back into the top flight. The same goes for a goalless draw. With the fans behind them, however, they will probably go for the latter as a wild card. The quality in the squad is great, the confidence in a proven system is given. Combined with the season’s performance and this year’s form at home, we believe Levante will win