The battle for direct promotion

The EFL Championship is entering the home straight. It includes two long-standing fixtures in the English top flight. One of the two clubs could be heading straight back to the top flight. Most observers are predicting an advantage for the Foxes when looking at Leicester and Southampton

On paper, the two top favorites for promotion face each other here. Relegated together, they also want to climb back up together. However, Ipswich’s outstanding season is likely to put paid to that dream. At least that’s how it looks at the moment

One reason for this is the recent performances of Leicester v Southampton, which are dominating the betting odds. The score is 9:10 on points over the last five rounds. An unstoppable climber looks different.

However, this is also difficult to achieve in the grindstone of the English lower house. So it will probably remain exciting until the end

Leicester – statistics & current form

The current league leaders are on the run from Ipswich and Leeds. Only a few points separate the teams and there is only one thing that can help: lots of goals. If there’s one clash that will make the goal counter rejoice, then it’s probably the match between the two former Premier League sides. They have scored a total of 166 goals in their combined 86 games. That’s almost a 2.0.

In the case of the Foxes, the route through the middle is the method of choice. They like to have the ball at their own feet and use it to force the game into the opposition’s half. They also like to steal the ball as a stylistic device.

If you have strikers like the evergreen Jamie Vardy (15 goals + 1 assist) in the middle, you can count yourself lucky. What once worked in the Premier League also delights the Foxes’ fans in the Championship

One of the league’s statistically best defenses wears blue

As if the offense wasn’t argument enough, the Foxes’ defense also stands out for the most part. With 39 goals conceded in 43 starts, the Midlands side have one of the strongest defenses in England’s second tier.

In purely statistical terms, they have several areas of concern that could potentially prove fatal. Firstly, there is the unpleasant habit of repeatedly conceding chances to their opponents. This also has to do with the fact that aerial duels are not their main discipline.

If they then slip up in their own build-up play, the catalog of horrors is perfect. However, the prefix “statistically” provides some relief here. They are still in second place, although they have lost three of their last five games. But it should come as no surprise to anyone that the usual predictions for Leicester and Southampton have a certain expectation of goals.

Predicted Leicester line-up:

Southampton – Statistics & current form

The men from the south coast want to get back into the Premier League. However, the defense in particular needs to step up its game, as it can be a bit wild at times. The Reds’ back line is one of the most ferocious in the top flight. Similar to their counterparts in blue, they are not always at their best. With 56 goals conceded in 43 rounds, they almost always concede. However, it should be borne in mind that second-placed Ipswich have also conceded 53 goals.

The main problem here is physicality. Hardly any other league is as well-known for its tough duels as the English lower house. The whitewash is often difficult to stop due to the sheer force of the opponent. The former first division team is plagued by the same problem as the Foxes.

Duels in the air are often lost and this often creates chances in the penalty area. In a league that also likes to play this style, this is of course a problem. That’s where the all-clear comes in. Neither blue nor red will necessarily unpack the long shots in this duel. This could end up being more attractive, but perhaps also less goal-rich than expected

The offense pulls the coals out of the fire

What’s pushing Leicester and Southampton’s goalscoring tips a little forward again, however, is once again the offense. Everyone involved on the south coast has already scored 85 goals. There is no preferred path of attack.

Both the wings and the hole pass in the middle are used willingly and profitably. This repeatedly creates chances and, when they arise, they are also scored. It quickly becomes clear how eventful the Saints’ games can be.

If there are just under two goals and one goal conceded per game, then the arrow is pointing upwards in the table and, above all, a combination of goals and wins on the betting slip. You shouldn’t bet a whole house on it, and yet a staid 0:0 seems rather unlikely.

Southampton’s expected line-up:

Leicester – Southampton head-to-head comparison / H2H result

With 5:3 wins per Leicester, the direct duel is a very interesting one. With a total of 25:10 goals scored in the last ten meetings and the first leg ending in a relatively comfortable 4:1 win for the Foxes, the odds on a home win for Leicester and Southampton seem quite reasonable

Leicester – Southampton betting tip

This is likely to be a close game. The definitive outcome is of course difficult to predict in advance. However, the alignment is. Two of the strongest offenses in the league are playing. The goal counter could end up going up a little and Oddset has just the right offers for that

According to the previous duels and the alignment in the league, Leicester against Southampton is more likely to end up as tip 1. The differences are small and yet the men from the Midlands seem a little more mature. In any case, it will be exciting and possibly high-scoring