Will the Foxes manage to get out of their crisis?

The eighth matchday of the English Premier League brought two prestigious derbies and will be concluded on Monday evening with a basement duel. Hosts Leicester and promoted Nottingham face off at the King Power Stadium from 9pm. The home side have been the big disappointment of the season so far and are the only Premier League team still without a league win in 2022/23. Accordingly, Rodgers’ eleven find themselves at the bottom of the table.

The situation is not much better for the Premier League returnees from Nottingham. The completely new team has not yet found each other and is in penultimate place in the table with four points from seven games. The season is still long, but another defeat would exacerbate the crisis for both teams. Despite their disastrous record, the bookmakers see Leicester against Nottingham as relatively clear favourites according to current betting odds. The odds for a home win are in the 1.70 range, while a win for the visitors would bring up to 4.4 times the stake if successful.

Based on the results so far, neither team is expected to put on a gala performance, but rather the fight will be in the foreground. For Rodgers’ side in particular, the motto is “no losing”, otherwise they will lose touch with the rest of the league early on.

Leicester – Statistics & current form

It wasn’t long ago that Leicester coach Brendan Rodgers was considered a hot prospect for the absolute top teams. Under the former Liverpool coach, the Foxes finished fifth twice in a row and only missed out on the top flight by a whisker. Last season, they finished eighth in the table and narrowly missed out on qualification for Europe.

Only winless team

The current results this season, however, were by no means to be expected. While football is becoming even more fast-paced, continuity has been the order of the day for the Foxes. Basically, there were only three transfers worth mentioning, of which two players, regular goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel and Wesley Fofana, left the club. Wout Faes was signed from Stade Reims as Fofana’s replacement.

However, the departure of Schmeichel, which was supposed to be compensated internally with Danny Ward, leaves a huge gap. Even if Ward is not solely to blame for the current precarious situation, without Schmeichel all stability in the defence has been lost. In the first seven league games, Leicester not only remained winless, but also conceded no less than 22 (!) goals.

On average, this means more than three goals conceded per game, with Ward having to make eleven saves in the last games (2:5 against Brighton, 2:6 against Tottenham). Ten goals scored by Ward himself make 32 goals in seven games so far this season, an average of 4.57 goals per game. This is the absolute maximum in the current Premier League season. Therefore, between Leicester and Nottingham, both a prediction on goals from both teams and an over-bet are absolutely obvious.

Predicted Leicester line-up:
Ward – Justin, Evans, Faes, Castagne – Ndidi – Barnes, Tielemans, Drewsbury-Hall, Maddison – Vardy

Last matches played by Leicester:

Premier League
17/09/2022 – Tottenham 6 – 2 Leicester

04/09/2022 – Brighton 5 – 2 Leicester

02/09/2022 – Leicester 0 – 1 Manchester United

27/08/2022 – Chelsea FC 2 – 1 Leicester

Carabao Cup
24/08/2022 – Stockport County 1.0 – 0(3) Leicester

Nottingham – Statistics & current form

While there was continuity at Leicester in the summer, the Premier League returnee from Nottingham was the complete opposite. At times, there was a feeling that club officials were in a manager’s game, damply reinforcing the squad with all manner of players. Due to the enormous income from the TV contract, the entire squad was virtually retreaded. In the end, the club spent more than PSG or Bayern Munich, for example. The new arrivals cost a whopping 162 million euros.

The focus was mainly on young players who had already gained experience at their previous stations. The new arrivals undoubtedly promise an increase in quality, but unsurprisingly the completely newly formed team needs time. Time, however, is now a rare commodity in football and so head coach Steve Cooper must start to deliver results or there could soon be a new arrival on the bench too.

Four defeats in a row – 14 goals conceded

After more than 23 years without Premier League football, the joy among supporters of the “Tricky Trees” (the second common nickname next to Garibaldi Reds) was huge. Four points from the first three games also ensured a thoroughly successful start to the season. However, this has long since been forgotten, as the last four league games all ended in defeat.

Nottingham also revealed a major problem in defence. In these four defeats, goalkeeper Dean Henderson had to make at least two saves, 14 in total. Against fellow promoted Bournemouth and Fulham, Nottingham let a 2-0 and 1-0 lead slip away and ended up empty-handed. After a lack of goals at the beginning of the season (two from five games), the offensive has improved recently. These statistics also favour betting on goals on both sides between Leicester and Nottingham.

Should Monday’s game at the King Power Stadium go to waste, it would be the first time Nottingham have conceded five in a row in a league since January 2004. A scenario that seems quite likely. Especially after losing the ball, the team is extremely weak at the back. The team conceded four goals after losing the ball in their own half.

Predicted line-up of Nottingham:
Henderson – Cook, McKenna, Boly – Lodi, Yates, Freuler, Williams – Gibbs-White – Awoniyi, Johnson

Last matches played by Nottingham:

Premier League
17/09/2022 – Nottingham Forest 2 – 3 Fulham

03/09/2022 – Nottingham Forest 2 – 3 Bournemouth

01/09/2022 – Manchester City 6 – 0 Nottingham Forest

28/08/2022 – Nottingham Forest 0 – 2 Tottenham

Carabao Cup
24/08/2022 – Grimsby 0 – 3 Nottingham Forest

Leicester – Nottingham Direct comparison / H2H record

For the first time since February 2014, the two teams face each other in a league match. The Foxes do not have any good memories of the league returnee from Nottingham. Leicester have only won one of their last seven meetings (four draws, two defeats). And also in the English football top flight, the head-to-head tends to favour the promoted team, who have lost only one of the six Premier League duels so far. The last Premier League encounter in May 1999 (1-0 to Nottingham) was also the last PL game for the Garibaldi Reds until the start of this season.

Leicester – Nottingham Tip

More crisis duels are not possible in the English Premier League at the moment. If Leicester were to go without a win again, head coach Brendan Rodgers would achieve a personal negative record. Never before has he lost three league home games in a row. With the visitors also in shockingly poor form, predicting the winner between Leicester and Nottingham is no easy task. The tendency is in the direction of the home side, but the stakes should be chosen moderately for this bet at the current odds.

Far more interesting than betting on the winner of this match are the bets on many goals. Both teams currently have big problems in the game without the ball and invite their respective opponents to score goals through blatant mistakes. In addition, both sides have a top-class offensive line-up that exudes enormous goal-scoring danger.

Not only is an over 2.5 interesting in this respect, but ultimately five units are recommended in the Leicester v Nottingham game for the prediction of at least four goals. Leicester’s four games so far have ended with at least four goals, Nottingham’s three. A 2.62 is too high here.