Will relegated Leeds get their first win of the season?

On the 3rd matchday of the Championship, Leeds United welcome the team from West Bromwich Albion. In advance, the roles seem to be quite clearly distributed, because while the home side still played in the Premier League last season, the visitors have been waiting for their return to the English top flight for two seasons. For this reason, the bookmakers’ betting odds between Leeds and West Brom also tend to favour a win for the home side.

Leeds were promoted to England’s top flight in the 2019/2020 season after ten years in the second tier. In the first year after promotion, the Peacocks even just missed out on the international places and played some very respectable football. The Whites’ attacking style of play was very entertaining, especially for the neutral spectator. Only two years later, however, they were relegated to the Championship.

West Brom last played in the Premier League in the 2020/2021 season and is now entering its third second division season. Since then, the club has been fighting for a return to the English top flight. Carlos Corberan’s side have never been far from it, however, narrowly missing out on the play-offs twice in a row. Nevertheless, the Baggies are not favourites for promotion, which is why the odds are also against a win for the visitors between Leeds and West Brom.

We recommend betting on a win for the home team between Leeds and West Brom. The home side are difficult to beat at home, have a much better squad and should dominate the game as they are relegated from the Premier League. On the other hand, the Baggies’ away record is rather weak. Furthermore, the squad value of the visitors is barely a third of the Peacocks’ market value.

Leeds – Statistics & current form

Leeds picked up just one point from their opening two games and sit 19th in the Championship. The start into the new season did not go as desired for Daniel Farke’s team. In the game against West Bromwich Albion, a win would therefore be enormously important, because promotion is clearly the goal

Transfer confusion

The relegated side face a difficult few weeks with Wilfried Gnonto, Tyler Adams, Junior Firpo, Georginio Rutter and Crysencio Summerville all still being linked with departures. Leeds have been forced to take action themselves and are currently looking at players such as Yussuf Poulsen, Nathaniel Phillips, Edouard Michut and Pantelis Chatzidiakos.

Elland Road

At home, Leeds picked up 22 points from 19 games last season to finish 17th in the Premier League home table. Daniel Farke’s team scored 26 goals, but also conceded 37.

That doesn’t sound particularly good, but the performances at home were usually much better than away from home. That was also evident in the first home game of the new season, as the Peacocks made a very dominant impression against Cardiff City.

Offensively strong, defensively weak

Last season Leeds conceded 78 goals and had the weakest defence in the Premier League. Offensively, things looked much better as the Peacocks ranked twelfth in the league with 48 goals in 38 games.

One of the key players for the home side could clearly be Crysencio Summerville. The 21-year-old midfielder made his breakthrough in pre-season and has become a regular. In the match against Cardiff, he was the match-winner with an assist and a goal.

Predicted Leeds line-up:

Leeds (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1

West Brom – Statistics & current form

West Brom started the new season with one win and one defeat. Carlos Corberan’s team is currently 14th in the Championship, ahead of Leeds United. However, the visitors were inferior in both games and therefore won against Swansea rather happily. In addition, the Baggies lost to Stoke City in the EFL Cup and, in our opinion, are not among the favourites for a possible promotion.

Underwhelming away record

With only 26 points from 23 away games last season, West Brom were 13th in the away table. Only five teams in the Championship lost more away games in the 2022/2023 season and that was ultimately the reason why it was not enough to reach the play-offs. This problem seems to be persistent as the Baggies lost both games away from home so far in the new campaign.

Always good for a goal

With 59 goals in 46 games, West Bromwich Albion provided one of the best offences in the league last season. There were only five teams that found their way into the opponent’s goal more often and the Baggies seem to have maintained this strength in the new season.

The most dangerous player in Carlos Corberan’s team is clearly John Swift. In his first season, the 28-year-old centre-forward collected 15 scoring points and was the top scorer. Last weekend against Swansea, the attacker was also successful.

Slight problems in defence

The Baggies have struggled slightly defensively in the new season, conceding six goals in their first three competitive games. This is somewhat unexpected, as West Brom had one of the best defences in the league in pre-season. In 46 league games, Carlos Corberan’s side conceded only 53 goals, ranking them sixth in the league.

Predicted West Brom line-up:

West Bromwich (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1

Leeds – West Brom Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

The direct comparison between the two teams goes to the home side. Leeds have already won 28 duels against West Brom, while 19 games have ended in a draw and the visitors have picked up 33 victories. The last time the two sides met in the Premier League was in 2021. At that time, the Peacocks won quite clearly with 3:1 against the Baggies and remained the fifth game in a row without a defeat. For this reason, our prediction between Leeds and West Brom goes more in the direction of the home team.

Leeds – West Brom Tip

We recommend the tip “Leeds win a half – yes” between Leeds and West Brom. This is primarily due to the visiting team’s very weak defence of late, as the visitors have conceded six goals in their last three games. The Baggies will therefore hardly be able to keep a clean sheet against the Peacocks’ strong attack. In addition, the direct comparison is in favour of the hosts, as LUFC are unbeaten in five duels with WBA.

Alternatively, we recommend the odds for “both teams score – yes” between Leeds and West Brom. We have already touched on the defensive vulnerability of the visitors, but we should not forget the home side’s vulnerable backline. Moreover, the offensive lines of both teams are among the best in the league. Therefore, goals seem almost inevitable in this duel.