Who will win the re-match between the Whites and the Red Devils?

Normally we know the playoff mode especially from the big American sports leagues like the NBA, the NHL or the MLB. In several matches one after the other – so-called best-of-series – the teams duel in the fight for a place in the next round. On Sunday, the Premier League is not about advancing, but there is a certain play-off atmosphere at Elland Road in Leeds as well.

Why? Because Leeds and Manchester United are facing each other for the second time this week. So after the replayed first leg, which ended in a 2-2 draw on Wednesday night, it’s now the re-match with the Whites enjoying home advantage.

However, the role of Bruno Fernandes and Co. as favourites has not changed. Between Leeds and Manchester United, lower odds are offered on the away treble.

From a purely tabular point of view, this assessment can of course be well justified. After all, the 16th-placed team, which is in acute danger of relegation, meets the third-placed team, which is finally preparing to make the leap into the upcoming Champions League group stage via the league position. Recent results and performances also point the pointer quite clearly in favour of the Red Devils, so ahead of the Leeds vs. Manchester United clash, predicting the visitors’ treble probably makes more sense.

Leeds – Statistics & current form

Jesse Marsch has been out of charge at Leeds United for just under a week. A disappointing season so far, as well as many poor results in the recent past, led to the officials having to pull the ripcord and sack the former RB coach. Michael Skubala, who actually coaches the club’s U21s and even served as co-coach of the England U18s until the summer, is now in charge on an interim basis.

The 40-year-old’s debut as head coach of a Premier League team could hardly have gone better. His Whites picked up a surprising point at Old Trafford and could even have scored a three-pointer with a little more cleverness. In the end, however, the 2:0 lead was “only” enough for a 2:2 draw, which was nevertheless received very positively in the surrounding area. The team sent out a sign of life and now wants to prolong this against the same opponent in front of a home crowd.

Does Leeds confirm Wednesday’s impressions?

The 16th-placed team, who are just one point clear of the relegation zone, have not been doing well at home of late. The Peacocks have only won one of their last eight PL home games. Apart from that, Manchester United have scored 4+ goals at Elland Road three times in the long history of English football. Only Arsenal have done the same more often (four times).

Despite Wednesday’s positive impressions and the change of coach, it should not be forgotten that the relegation candidates from the north of the country have now been without a win for eight league games.

The last time the Whites won three was at the beginning of November. Four of the last eight matches were lost, including the matches against comparable opponents like Tottenham or Manchester City. Consequently, we are not paying any attention to the odds on a home win between Leeds and Manchester United.

Last games played by Leeds:

Premier League
09/02/2023 – Manchester United 2 – 2 Leeds

05/02/2023 – Nottingham Forest 1 – 0 Leeds

FA Cup
28/01/2023 – Accrington 1 – 3 Leeds

Premier League
22/01/2023 – Leeds 0 – 0 Brentford

FA Cup
19/01/2023 – Leeds 5 – 2 Cardiff

Manchester United – Statistics & current form

The great flow is gone at Manchester United for the time being. After five Premier League victories in a row and commanding victories in the two cup competitions, the Red Devils have recently had a little more trouble putting their own performance on the pitch and achieving the corresponding successes.

The best example was the 2-2 draw at home against Leeds United on Wednesday. They also only managed a 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace and even lost 3-2 against Arsenal. The bottom line is only one win from the last four league games. Still, our preferred choice is to play the odds on the visitors’ treble between Leeds and Manchester United on Sunday.

Will United drop points again?

The fact is that Erik ten Hag’s side have scored at least once in their last ten Premier League games. Assuming that the home side’s mostly harmless offensive remains scoreless or scores only one goal at the weekend, the likelihood of an away win increases significantly. The differences in individual quality as well as the league situation must also be taken into account.

If you also take into account the fact that United repeatedly trapped Leeds in their half in the last half hour and that a different course of play would probably have resulted in a commanding home victory for the favourites, we think it is unrealistic that for a second time in a row many things will go against United and for Leeds. Sometimes it is simply gut feeling that has to be used for subjective assessments. And this one speaks for the away team on Sunday.

Last games of Manchester United:

Premier League
09/02/2023 – Manchester United 2 – 2 Leeds

04/02/2023 – Manchester United 2 – 1 Crystal Palace

Carabao Cup
02/02/2023 – Manchester United 2 – 0 Nottingham Forest

FA Cup
29/01/2023 – Manchester United 3 – 1 Reading

Carabao Cup
26/01/2023 – Nottingham Forest 0 – 3 Manchester United

Leeds – Manchester United Direct comparison / H2H record

Last season Leeds United lost 4-2 at home to Manchester United, but the Whites have not suffered two consecutive home defeats in the PL against the Red Devils since 1976. The English record holders have also not lost to their upcoming opponents for eight league games. We already covered the first leg last Wednesday in detail.

Leeds – Manchester United Tip

For the second time in four days Leeds and Manchester United face each other in the Premier League. The betting odds are once again in favour of the third-placed team in the table, who, however, are only playing 2-2 on Wednesday and have only managed to win one of their last four league matches. It is therefore no great surprise that the top odds are almost 2.00 for the away win.

Despite the positive impressions of Skubala’s debut as March’s successor in the north of England, the Peacocks have not won any of their last eight league matches. At home, they have only managed a single win in their last eight home games. Qualitatively, the home side are also in a weaker position.

We therefore bet on an away win in the Leeds vs. Manchester United clash with a clear conscience and receive an attractive 1.95 at the top. Seven units reflect our confidence in this bet.

It is also conceivable that we will see fewer goals than on Wednesday, as the underdog’s approach must once again be to stand firm for as long as possible. Furthermore, it is not likely that the Peacocks will take the lead after just a few seconds, similar to the situation at Old Trafford. Three goals nevertheless seem realistic, so that additional thought may be given to the Over 2.5.