Has Leeds forgotten how to win?

Last season, Leeds United stood for unconditional and spectacular attacking football. In 2021/22, however, the tide has turned somewhat. Teams have adapted to the Whites’ style of play, leaving Marcelo Bielsa’s team lagging behind their own standards. At the moment, they are only in 17th place.

United will be looking to take a step back from the crisis with just one win in their last six games next Tuesday. The Peacocks will then face a team that can be much more satisfied with their performance so far this season in the course of Matchday 14. Before the kick-off of the Leeds vs. Crystal Palace match, the odds are nevertheless leaning in the direction of the home side.

This basic classification by the bookmakers causes some confusion in that the Bielsa team has only celebrated two victories so far this season, while the Eagles from the London capital have only lost three times, twice against Chelsea and Liverpool. At first glance, therefore, it is quite conceivable to make a prediction on the visitors’ treble between Leeds and Crystal Palace.

Leeds – Statistics & current form

In their debut year following their long-awaited return to the Premier League, Leeds United generated massive excitement in 2020/21. Instead of focusing on defensive challenges like many other newcomers, the team of Pep Guardiola’s one-time teacher Marcelo Bielsa caused a sensation primarily through bold attacking football.

Although the squad was largely retained over the summer, the Peacocks’ punch has clearly diminished. Last year, they scored an average of 1.5 goals per home game, but this figure has dropped by a third. In six home games in the current season, the Whites have only managed six meagre goals at Elland Road. Only in the 1996/97 First Division season did the former European Cup participants achieve a weaker average (0.8 goals).

Leeds disappoint so far this season

The lack of penetrating power, which can also be seen in the total of only twelve goals, has logically also led to a disappointing lack of results so far. With two wins, six draws and five defeats, Leeds have only twelve points, which are currently just enough for an intermediate position above the ominous relegation zone.

Especially in their own stadium, not much went right in 2021/22. Only one win from six home games serves as an argument to check the odds on an away win between Leeds and Crystal Palace on Tuesday evening.

At least there are two statistics that give hope, because on the one hand, the home side have won the last five direct league encounters in front of a home crowd against their upcoming opponents. On the other, Bielsa’s side are on five wins from six games since returning to the top flight during the week. Admittedly, however, these facts based on the past are to be taken with a grain of salt. Especially as three key players – goal scorer Patrick Bamford, Luke Ayling and international Robin Koch – are still out injured.

Predicted Leeds line-up:
Meslier; Llorente, Struijk, Cooper, Firpo; Phillips; Raphinha, Roberts, Dallas, Harrison; James

Last matches played by Leeds:

Premier League
11/27 2021 – Brighton 0 – 0 Leeds

11/21 2021 – Tottenham 2 – 1 Leeds

11/07 2021 – Leeds 1 – 1 Leicester

10/31 2021 – Norwich 1 – 2 Leeds

Carabao Cup
10/26 2021 – Arsenal London 2 – 0 Leeds

Crystal Palace – Statistics & current form

Crystal Palace’s development this season can definitely be described as satisfactory. Although the team of former French international Patrick Vieira has only three wins in 13 Premier League games, they have only lost three matches. The majority (seven games) ended in a draw.

The fact that the Londoners currently represent the mediocrity personified in the top flight of English Premier League football is also underlined by the fact that the goal ratio is absolutely balanced with 19 goals scored and 19 conceded. The bottom line, however, is that only six clubs have scored more goals than the capital club so far this season.

Palace attack knows how to convince away from home

Apart from that, Wilfried Zaha and Co. have already provided some unexpected highlights. Among other things, the Eagles won 2-0 at Manchester City and 3-0 against Tottenham or fought their way to a respectable draw against Arsenal or West Ham United. In view of these results against teams that play well and dominate possession, it is possible to conclude that a good result for Vieira’s team against the unresponsive Peacocks on Tuesday is anything but unlikely.

That’s also backed up by their current form, as excluding the weekend’s needless 2-1 home defeat to Steven Gerrard’s Aston Villa, Crystal Palace have previously gone unbeaten in seven successive league games. In addition, a new record beckons during the week. For the first time in the club’s history, the Eagles could score two or more goals in four consecutive away games.

In view of all these interesting facts, the bet on the away win between Leeds and Crystal Palace is probably the most promising value, especially as only Andersen and McArthur will be absent. Otherwise, all the men are probably on board. That includes Christian Benteke, who is a real “Tuesday expert”. In the Premier League, only Alan Shearer (15) and Wayne Rooney (13) scored more times than the Palace attacker this weekday.

Predicted line-up of Crystal Palace:
Guaita; Ward, Tomkins, Guehi, Mitchell; Gallagher, Kouyate, Eze; Edouard, Benteke, Zaha

Last matches played by Crystal Palace:

Premier League
11/27 2021 – Crystal Palace 1 – 2 Aston Villa

11/20 2021 – Burnley 3 – 3 Crystal Palace

11/06 2021 – Crystal Palace 2 – 0 Wolverhampton

10/30 2021 – Manchester City 0 – 2 Crystal Palace

10/23 2021 – Crystal Palace 1 – 1 Newcastle United

Leeds – Crystal Palace Direct Comparison / H2H Record

Tuesday marks the 25th meeting between these teams in England’s top flight. Leeds currently lead the direct comparison with eleven wins compared to seven draws and six defeats. At home, the record is even better with eight victories from twelve first league encounters.

The Eagles have lost four of their last six meetings in the top flight against the Peacocks. Also interesting: for the first time since 1991, this clash comes at a stage of the season when the Londoners are placed ahead of Leeds United in the standings.

Leeds – Crystal Palace Tip

The air in the bottom of the table is getting thinner for Leeds United at the moment. The Whites have won just one of their last six league games and are now three games adrift of a treble. The Bielsa side, who are also struggling with injury problems, have slipped to fourth bottom of the table.

The disappointing home record with only one win from six games and only six goals scored is no encouragement for the upcoming match against the capital club. Consequently, between Leeds and Crystal Palace, the betting odds on the home treble have no greater relevance for us below.

Instead, we believe that there are enough valid arguments to bet on an away win in the aforementioned clash between Leeds and Crystal Palace. On the one hand, the Eagles have already proven in the current season that they can bring their own switching game onto the pitch well against teams that are active. On the other hand, the Vieira eleven has lost only one of the past eight Premier League matches.

Nevertheless, to minimise the risk somewhat, we switch to the two-way market and thus get the stake back in the event of a draw.