Does Lech Posen set the course for the next qualifying round?

The time has come: In the next few weeks, the last six participants of the upcoming Champions League season 2022/23 will be determined within the framework of the qualification for the top division. Already in the first round of the CL qualifiers, interesting fixtures are lined up, including the match between Polish champions Lech Poznan and Azerbaijani champions Qarabag FK.

The “Kolejorz” from Poznan are in the Champions League qualifiers for the first time since 2015. Qarabag FK, on the other hand, have been regulars in CL qualifying in recent years. Since 2014, the Azerbaijani record champions have been represented in the qualifying phase for the top flight seven times. However, they have only made it to the group stage on one occasion.

In terms of experience on the international stage, Qarabag FK have the edge over the Polish representatives. Nevertheless, the Azerbaijani guests will approach the first leg as underdogs.

Lech Poznan have lost just one of their last eight home matches in UEFA European Cup qualifying since 2015. It is quite possible that that home record in the qualifying phase will also be extended in this year’s 2022/23 CL qualifiers.

Lech Posen – Statistics & current form

Under Maciej Skorza, Lech Posen won the Polish Ekstraklasa championship last season for the first time since the 2014/15 season. For the “Kolejorz” it was already the eighth league title in the club’s history. In the summer, however, there was a surprising change of coach at Lech Poznan. Successful coach Skorza announced his resignation after the championship.

According to media reports, the 50-year-old resigned for personal reasons. Lech Posen filled the vacant coaching position with John van den Brom, who will now play his first competitive match as the new head coach of the “Kolejorz” this week. Because the Dutchman was only introduced as the new head coach a fortnight ago, van den Brom has only had a short period to settle in with his new team.

It therefore remains uncertain how the Dutchman will present himself in his first match as the new head coach of Lech Poznan. The 55-year-old can at least draw on a well-rehearsed squad. The Polish champions only had to cope with a few departures in the summer and the team structure remained largely stable.

Will Lech Poznan use home advantage?

Although only one win in three test matches was recorded during the summer preparation, it is quite obvious to place a bet on the Polish hosts when Lech Poznan play Qarabag FK. At home, Lech Poznan have conceded just one match so far this calendar year and have a 5-1-1 record at the Stadion Miesjki across all competitions.

In the qualifying phases for a UEFA European Cup, the “Kolejorz” have conceded only one defeat in their last eight home games. The last time was in 2018, when Lech Poznan were eliminated from Europa League qualifying after a first-leg defeat to KRC Genk.

In the first match of the new competitive season, new head coach John van den Brom will have almost all players in the squad at his disposal. Due to injury, the Dutchman will only have to do without Bartosz Salamon for the home match against Qarabag FK.

Predicted line-up of Lech Poznan:
Rudko; Pereira, Satka, Milic, Rebocho; Murawski, Karlstrom; Ba Loua, Amaral, Skoras; Ishak.

Last matches played by Lech Poznan:

Ekstraklasa
21/05/2022 – Lech Poznan 2 – 1 Zaglebie Lubin

14/05/2022 – Warta Poznan 1 – 2 Lech Posen

08/05/2022 – Piast Gliwice 1 – 2 Lech Poznan

FA Cup
02/05/2022 – Lech Poznan 1 – 3 Rakow Czestochowa

Ekstraklasa
24/04/2022 – Lech Poznan 3 – 1 Stal Mielec

Qarabag – Statistics & current form

Qarabag FK will start in the first qualifying round of the Champions League for the fourth time in the club’s history. So far, the Azerbaijani champions have successfully reached the first round of CL qualifying in every appearance. In all five matches (3-2-0) of the first qualifying round, the Azerbaijani remained without conceding a goal.

If this record is extended with another win in Poland, the betting odds for Lech Poznan against Qarabag are currently 3.60. Just like their upcoming opponents from Poland, Qarabag FK were also spared serious departures during the summer break. The Azerbaijani record champions will therefore start with a well-rehearsed squad.

With Gugeshashvili and Jankovic, the team of long-time head coach Qurban Qurbanov has only made selective additions in the current transfer window. Should they qualify for the group stage of the top flight, however, further new additions cannot be ruled out for Qarabag FK.

Will the defensive bulwark hold against Lech Poznan?

Qarabag FK have played three test matches so far as part of their summer preparations. The Azerbaijani representative remained unbeaten in all three matches, including a 2-2 draw against Holstein Kiel. Although the attack has been particularly convincing during this period, the team’s showpiece remains its defensive bulwark.

In the league last season, Qurbanov’s team conceded only 13 goals in 28 matchdays, making them statistically the strongest defensive team in the Premier League. Surprisingly, Qarabag FK were not able to underline their defensive qualities on the international stage last season.

In the Conference League, they conceded eight goals in six group matches. They even conceded six goals against Olympique Marseille in the round of 32 in the first and second legs. The statistics from the league competition should therefore not be overestimated with regard to the CL qualifying match.

Predicted line-up of Qarabag:
Gugeshashvili; Vesovic, Medina, Medvedev, Bayramov; Almeida, Garayev; Kady, Ozobic, Jankovic; Wadji

Last matches played by Qarabag:

Cup
27/05/2022 – Qarabag FK (4)1 – 1(3) Zira

Premier League
21/05/2022 – Qarabag FK 4 – 1 FK Neftchi

15/05/2022 – Sabail 0 – 3 Qarabag FK

12/05/2022 – Qarabag FK 5 – 0 Sumqayit

08/05/2022 – Qarabag FK 0 – 0 Zira

Lech Poznan – Qarabag Direct comparison / H2H balance

Lech Posen and Qarabag FK meet for the first time ever. The “Kolejorz” from Poland have never lost a competitive match against a team from Azerbaijan in the entire club history. After eight competitive matches against Azerbaijani clubs, Lech Poznan have a record of 7-1-0 so far.

However, Qarabag FK are also confident going into the match against Lech Poznan. So far, the Azerbaijani record holders have a record of 4-1-0 in five competitive matches against teams from Poland – a good omen ahead of Tuesday’s match?

Lech Posen – Qarabag Tip

Lech Posen will be looking to make the most of home advantage in their qualifying first leg against Qarabag FK to set the stage for progression to the next round. In doing so, the “Kolejorz” will rely above all on their well-rehearsed squad. New coach John van den Brom is not expected to change much in the playing system of the Polish champions.

After all, the 55-year-old Dutchman only recently took the reins at the “Kolejorz” after successful coach Skorza announced his surprising resignation. Just like Lech Poznan, however, the upcoming opponents Qarabag FK will be starting with a well-rehearsed squad. In addition, the Azerbaijani guests also have the edge over Lech Poznan when it comes to experience.

In the last eight years, Qarabag have reached the Champions League qualifiers seven times. Only once have they reached the group stage, but Qarabag FK have reached the first qualifying round in every season.

Nevertheless, like the bookmakers, we see the Polish hosts as favourites in the first leg. With a moderate bet of four units, we dare to predict that Lech Poznan will win against Qarabag FK at reasonable odds on the “Kolejorz”.