Is Sturm paying a lesson away from home again?
Group F of the 2022/23 UEFA Europa League is the epitome of excitement in football. Three of the six group matches have been played and there is no trend to be seen for the life of me. All four teams have four points and the opening round of the second leg could bring a preliminary decision. At the Olimpico Stadium in Rome, Lazio Roma and Sturm Graz will face each other.
Even though last week’s first leg was a goalless draw, the starting position before the return match in the eternal city of Rome is clear. For a home win of Lazio Roma against Sturm Graz, betting odds of 1.50 are not even offered. Immobile & Co have something to make up for and are certainly rated much stronger at home than away.
A statement that also applies to Graz, who collected all four points at home in the Merkur Arena. In their only away match so far, they suffered a heavy 0:6 defeat. It will probably not be that clear this Thursday, but another point win is not to be expected either. The match kicks off on Thursday at 9 p.m.
Lazio Roma – Statistics & current form
Maurizio Sarri’s side started this Europa League group as big favourites; now they have to tremble. The Italian media were correspondingly harsh on the Romans last week after the goalless draw in Styria. At least there was an improvement compared to the first away EL match, which ended with a heavy 1:5 defeat at the Danish representative FC Midtjylland.
Best form in the league
While the capital’s team has a lot of room for improvement on the international stage, things are going according to plan in the domestic championship. After nine games, the Romans are in third place, just three points behind leaders SSC Napoli. A look at the most recent results is absolutely impressive, because Sarri’s team not only celebrated four league victories in a row, but goalkeeper Ivan Provedel did not concede a goal in these games.
However, it is not only the defence that has been in great form with four games without conceding a goal, but also the attack is in good shape. Lazio have won each of their last three league games 4-0, and last weekend in Tuscany at Fiorentina they won by the same margin. Sarri’s team is therefore in strong form and quite rightly the clear favourites in the clash with the Austrian representatives.
Not only is a home win likely, but between Lazio Roma and Sturm Graz, betting on a handicap win in favour of the home side is also a good option. Due to the goal barrage, betting that both teams will not score is also worth considering. Sarri will not take the game lightly and will refrain from a large-scale rotation.
Predicted Lazio Roma line-up:
Provedel – Marusic, Romagnoli, Gila, Hysaj – Milinkovic-Savic, Cataldi, Luis Alberto – Pedro, Immobile, Felipe Anderson
Last matches played by Lazio Roma:
Europa League Grp. F
14/10/2022 – Lazio Roma 2 – 2 Sturm Graz
Serie A
11/10/2022 – AC Florence 0 – 4 Lazio Roma
Europa League Grp. F
06/10/2022 – Sturm Graz 0 – 0 Lazio Roma
Serie A
02/10/2022 – Lazio Roma 4 – 0 Spezia
18/09/2022 – Cremonese 0 – 4 Lazio Roma
Sturm Graz – Statistics & current form
Four wins in a row at national level is also something Christian Ilzer’s team can boast. However, Jörg Siebenhandl had to make another save last weekend after three games without conceding a goal. In the home match against WSG Tirol, they won 2:1, which means that Graz have collected 16 of 18 possible points from the last six league matches. The Styrians are thus once again the only significant pursuer of Red Bull Salzburg in the Austrian Bundesliga.
Utilisation of chances as a major shortcoming
60 minutes close to perfection is how Christian Ilzer described the first leg and only found a fly in the ointment when it came to the issue of chance-taking. Indeed, after the departure of top striker Rasmus Höljund, the Graz team has a problem with the offensive power. The game looks very attractive and the Blackies don’t lack chances. But far too seldom do the strikers get a chance to score.
In the domestic championship, 19 goals in eleven games is not an outstanding value, and internationally, there has only been one goal in the three group games so far, in the 1:0 win against FC Midtjylland. Albian Ajeti and William Böving bring quality with them, but they are by no means top scorers like Höljund was. At least Jakob Jantscher celebrated his comeback from injury.
Despite the good form and the strong performance in the first leg, the stakes will most likely be too high in Rome. Especially internationally, there is a big discrepancy between home and away games in terms of forward performances. Thus, between Lazio Rome and Sturm Graz, a prediction of renewed points for the Ilzer protégés is associated with great risk.
Predicted line-up of Sturm Graz:
Siebenhandl – Dante, Wüthrich, Affengruber, Ingolitsch – Prass, Gorenc Stankovic, Hierländer – Horvat – Böving, Ajeti
Last matches played by Sturm Graz:
Europa League Grp. F
14/10/2022 – Lazio Roma 2 – 2 Sturm Graz
Bundesliga
09/10/2022 – Sturm Graz 2 – 1 WSG Tirol
Europa League Grp. F
06/10/2022 – Sturm Graz 0 – 0 Lazio Rom
Bundesliga
02/10/2022 – Austria Wien 0 – 3 Sturm Graz
Friendly club matches
23/09/2022 – Sturm Graz 5 – 1 Maribor
Lazio Roma – Sturm Graz Direct comparison / H2H-balance
In the 2002/03 season, this clash took place in the knockout round of the UEFA Cup. Sturm Graz even won 1:0 at the Olimpico Stadium, but still had to cope with elimination due to a 1:3 home defeat.
In the first leg last week, the Blackies managed a goalless draw against the traditional Italian club. A point gained that was by no means undeserved, as Lazio stood up to them with a courageous performance. In front of their home fans, however, the Italians are certainly much stronger.
Lazio Roma – Sturm Graz Tip
In Group F of the Europa League, a win is of great importance on matchday four. Due to the current situation in the standings, a win means a very big step towards the knockout phase. In the duel between Lazio Roma and Sturm Graz, betting on a home win will most likely be the right decision. The Romans are in impressive form, are much stronger at home and have to pay a lot of dues away from home internationally.
The betting odds for the regular home win are not necessarily particularly lucrative. Accordingly, the view must be directed to the alternative betting markets, but here, too, there are interesting possibilities for a tip in the match Lazio Roma vs Sturm Graz. In view of the strong form of Immobile & Co., the handicap win with a six-unit stake is recommended as a top tip. Equally interesting is the bet HT/FT 1/1, because an early decision in favour of the Romans is also obvious.
