Can Lazio turn around the first leg result?
For many years, UEFA has been striving to make Europe’s second most important club competition, the Europa League, more attractive. In the current season, critics cannot complain about a lack of appeal. Numerous duels, which are already being played in the intermediate round, even exude Champions League flair.
A perfect example is provided by the pairing of Lazio Roma against Porto. According to the odds, both teams even belong to the extended circle of favourites for the overall victory. However, one of these two renowned clubs will already have to pull out of the race on Thursday evening. The Portuguese side won 2-1 at home in the first leg, so the pressure will now be on Sarri’s side in the second leg.
In view of the fact that the away goals rule no longer applies in international competitions, a 1-0 home win would be enough to at least reach extra time. However, because the Romans traditionally prefer an attacking game and the visitors from the south undoubtedly have the individual quality to exploit open spaces, the prediction of a goal or two in the Lazio Roma versus Porto clash promises to be a thoroughly appealing value.
Lazio Roma – Statistics & current form
Lazio have played seven matches so far in the current competition and have celebrated just two victories. The fact that the light blue and white team qualified for the intermediate round as runners-up in a complicated group with Lokomotive Moscow, Galatasaray and Olympique Marseille was primarily due to the fact that only one of the six preliminary round matches was lost. Three times the capitals had to settle for a draw.
For Thursday evening, however, it is also clear that a draw in the second leg against FC Porto will not be enough, as the first leg ended 2-1 for the Portuguese. Maurizio Sarri’s team will therefore have to play for victory in front of their home crowd and take more risks as the game progresses. This constellation is a first argument in favour of betting on over-goals between Lazio and Porto.
Will Immobile be fit in time?
The home side’s chances are far from hopeless, as the Biancocelesti have been in decent form in the league of late. Eleven points from the last five Serie A games prove this thesis. Looking back on the last nine league games, Lazio have even conceded only one defeat – in the 1:2 against Inter Milan at the beginning of January. At home, Lazio are unbeaten since the end of November. In general, there has only been one defeat in 15 home games this season (0:2 against Juventus).
The current sixth-placed team in Serie A is therefore not lacking in self-confidence and quality. Goals also seem inevitable, as Sarri’s team has only failed to score in one of its last twelve league games. The fact that relatively high odds of over 2.5 are offered between Lazio and Porto is mainly due to the fact that the Biancocelesti played three times to nil in front of their own fans in the group phase and only scored two goals in total.
Next Thursday, however, the starting position is completely different, so we expect a high-scoring encounter. Another aspect is the potential return of star attacker Ciro Immobile, who recently missed two games with an injury. There is also hope for his comeback. Zaccagni, Pedro, Acerbi and Lazzari will definitely be missing.
Predicted line-up of Lazio Roma:
Strakosha; Marusic, Patric, Felipe, Hysaj; Milinkovic-Savic, Leiva, Alberto; Pedro, Anderson, Cabral
Last matches played by Lazio Roma:
Serie A
02/20 2022 – Udinese 1 – 1 Lazio Roma
Europa League Final Stage
02/17 2022 – FC Porto 2 – 1 Lazio Roma
Serie A
02/12 2022 – Lazio Roma 3 – 0 Bologna
Coppa Italia
02/09 2022 – AC Milan 4 – 0 Lazio Roma
Serie A
02/05 2022 – AC Florence 0 – 3 Lazio Roma
Porto – Statistics & current form
FC Porto have already celebrated many successes in the Europa League and its predecessor, the UEFA Cup. In 2003 and 2011, the Portuguese top team even lifted the trophy. This season, too, the Dragons are expecting a lot, even though Barcelona, Sevilla, Atalanta Bergamo, Napoli and Borussia Dortmund are among the clubs hoping for a deep run.
But before the players from the country of the 2016 European champions can start thinking about the round of 16, quarter-finals or semi-finals, they first have to fix their progress in the intermediate round. The 2-1 victory in the first leg, which means that any draw would be enough to see them through to the last 16, is a source of hope.
Porto is always good for goals
On a positive note, coach Sergio Concecaio’s side have already produced good away results on international soil this season. The “Dragoes” fought their way to respectable draws at Atletico Madrid (0:0) and AC Milan (1:1). Only in Liverpool did the Portuguese lose 0:2 and were finally pushed down to third place in the attractive CL Group B on the last matchday.
All in all, the Blue and Whites are playing a very strong round, especially as they have 20 wins and three draws in the domestic league after 23 games. The undisputed leaders have a six-point lead over Sporting Lisbon and are still unbeaten on the road.
Nevertheless, keeper Marchesin has conceded at least one goal in six of the last eight league games. However, in eight of the last ten matches at national level, the port cities themselves have scored two or more goals. In only slightly more than 20% of all official matches would a bet on the under 2.5 have paid off. With the exception of the still suspended ex-Leverkusener Wendell, all men are probably on board. The aforementioned goalkeeper may also be back on the European stage after his sending off in the last CL group game.
Predicted Porto line-up:
Marchesin; Mario, Pepe, Mbemba, Sanusi; Otavio, Uribe, Grujic, Vitinha; Vieira, Martinez
Last matches played by Porto:
Liga Portugal
02/20 2022 – Moreirense 0 – 1 FC Porto
Europa League Final Stage
02/17 2022 – FC Porto 2 – 1 Lazio Roma
Liga Portugal
02/11 2022 – FC Porto 2 – 2 Sporting CP
02/06 2022 – Arouca 0 – 2 FC Porto
01/30 2022 – FC Porto 2 – 1 Maritimo
Lazio Roma – Porto Direct comparison / H2H balance
In 2002/03, the two teams crossed paths once before in the UEFA Cup. In the semi-final, FC Porto won the first leg 4-1 and a 0-0 draw in the second leg was enough to advance to the final. The Portuguese also won the final after extra time against Celtic Glasgow. The third meeting finally took place a week ago, when the Blue and Whites turned a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 home win thanks to double goal scorer Toni Martinez.
Lazio Roma – Porto tip
A whiff of Champions League flair is in the air in various Europa League second legs on Thursday evening. Also at the Stadio Olimpico, two renowned clubs, Lazio Roma and Porto, will face each other in a direct duel. The Portuguese have the better chance of advancing to the next round, having won the first leg 2-1.
However, nothing is lost for the Italians, who are strong at home. Those who have lost only one home game in the entire season and have not conceded a goal in three attempts at home in the Europa League group stage can definitely still have hopes of progressing. Admittedly, a lot will also depend on whether Ciro Immobile is fit in time.
In the end, however, we are convinced that there will be more rather than fewer goals in this duel. On the one hand, because both teams have enormous quality in their forward play. On the other hand, due to the constellation that the home side has to play to win and the “Dragoes” are known to have strengths in the transition game.
We have therefore decided to play the betting odds between Lazio Roma and Porto on both teams scoring at least once
