Will Bayern suffer another setback in the Champions League?

Four days after the humiliation of Leverkusen, FC Bayern Munich continue their Champions League campaign on Tuesday evening. The Munich team will visit the Olympic Stadium in Rome, where much more will be at stake than just a good starting position for the second leg of the round of 16 in the top flight. For the record champions, it’s about showing attitude, making amends and taking some of the wind out of the sails of the justified criticism

In view of the really weak performance of Tuchel’s team in the Bundesliga top match on Saturday evening, the away game in the Italian capital is likely to be anything but a walk in the park. And that’s despite the fact that FCB have recently enjoyed playing against Serie A clubs on the international stage and have generally not shown any weaknesses in the last 16 of Europe’s most important club competition in recent years.

Despite the alluded to circumstances, the odds on Harry Kane and Co. advancing between Lazio Rome and Bayern are therefore significantly lower. It is far more surprising that the Bundesliga runners-up are still in second place behind Manchester City in the overall odds to win the 2023/24 Handlepot in the popular Bet365 app and are therefore seen as one of the hottest contenders to win the title.

Former world-class footballer Robert Pires also shares this view. The former Arsenal player and France international gave us his exclusive predictions for the UEFA Champions League round of 16.

Lazio Roma – statistics & current form

Lazio Roma have qualified for the knockout phase of the UEFA Champions League for only the third time in their club’s history. In 1999/2000, they reached the quarter-finals against Valencia, while in 2020/21 FC Bayern proved to be too big for them. The Italians lost 2:6 after the first leg and return leg, so their international history provides an initial argument for Munich being the clear favorites. Even for the first leg on Wednesday evening between Lazio Rome and Bayern, the odds on the three-way market leave no room for two opinions in this regard.

Nevertheless, coach Maurizio Sarri’s team should by no means be underestimated. In a group with Atletico Madrid, Celtic Glasgow and Feyenoord Rotterdam, the Italians qualified for this round of the last 16 in second place and were particularly convincing at home. Seven of the ten points they collected came from home games. The Scottish champions from Glasgow and the (still) reigning champions from the Netherlands were both defeated without conceding a goal in front of a home crowd. They drew 1-1 at home against Atletico Madrid

Lazio Roma have recovered in time for the CL restart

In general, the home strength of the Biancocelesti is a factor that must be taken into account in the Lazio Roma vs Bayern prediction. At national level, the Romans have already proven on several occasions that they are difficult to beat on home turf at the Olympic Stadium. In eleven Serie A home games, they have only won six, but only lost two. Three draws round off the record.

The goal difference is much more striking, as a total of just 19 goals were scored in the aforementioned eleven matches in front of the home fans. In nine out of eleven cases, a bet of under 2.5 would have come true. With the two championship contenders Inter Milan and Juventus as well as Turin FC, there are only three teams in the Italian top flight that have conceded fewer goals at home than Lazio Roma (seven). Sarri’s side have even kept a clean sheet in five of their last seven Serie A home games. As the German record champions have also struggled to create scoring chances of late, the tendency is towards a first leg with a maximum of three goals in regular time.

Incidentally, the dress rehearsal went according to plan for the Romans. An important 3:1 win at Cagliari underlined their good form. They have 16 points from their last seven league games. As eighth in the table, the reigning runners-up are still five points off the top four.

Predicted Lazio Rome line-up:

Bayern – Statistics & current form

The pressure is on again at FC Bayern. After their disgraceful performance on Saturday evening in the absolute top match in Leverkusen (0:3), Munich find themselves at a crossroads this season. The starting position in the race for the German championship has worsened considerably with now five points and in the DFB Cup the men from the Isar have already been eliminated in the second round against third division side Saarbrücken. All the more reason to hope for a deep run in the top flight, although there are several question marks over their recent performance in the Rhineland.

The fact is that a significant improvement in performance will be required. To what extent this is realistic under the current circumstances, however, remains to be seen. The relationship between coach and players appears to be strained, with Thomas Tuchel’s match plan against Leverkusen not only causing irritation, but also proving to be a fallacy. Some FCB stars lacked the necessary mentality, others simply do not have the desired quality to perform consistently at a high level. The list of problems at the German record champions is longer than it has been for a long time

Bayern are not playing like Bayern at the moment

Nevertheless, there are of course aspects that should encourage Munich supporters. For example, Bayern have always made it to at least the quarter-finals in eleven of the last twelve years. Only in the 2018/19 season did the long-standing Bundesliga leaders lose to Liverpool in the round of 16. Looking back over the past eleven seasons, the southern Germans have never conceded a defeat in the first leg of a round of 16 tie, even though they have almost always had to play away from home first.

We therefore tend to combine the odds for the double chance X2 with the under 3.5 between Lazio Rome and Bayern on Wednesday evening. Against the strong Lazio defense, Harry Kane and Co. will probably have to grit their teeth a little longer. There is a lack of verticality going forward, a lack of determination in the final third and, to a certain extent, a lack of individual quality on the wings. Gnabry, Davies and Coman are still out; Zaragoza is still not playing a role, Musiala, Müller and Sané are all running behind their top form. Harry Kane is therefore on his own, but has already scored seven goals for Bayern this CL season.

Predicted Bayern line-up:

Lazio Roma – Bayern head-to-head comparison / H2H result

As already mentioned, the only two meetings between these clubs at competitive level to date came in the round of 16 of the 2020/21 Champions League season. Bayern won the first leg 4-1 at the Stadio Olimpico to lay the foundations for a place in the quarter-finals. In the second leg, however, Munich once again came out on top with a 2:1 victory. Incidentally, Hansi Flick was still on the bench at the time. On Wednesday evening, less than three years after the last encounter, no more than four of the starting eleven from the second leg will be on the pitch for FCB from the start

Lazio Roma – Bayern betting tip

We are looking forward to the first leg of the Champions League round of 16 between Lazio Roma and Bayern on Wednesday evening with plenty of excitement and, from a German perspective, tension. Although the betting odds point to the German record champions being the clear favorites, the last few days and recent performances have left their mark. Not so much with the best betting providers, but all the more with many FCB supporters and presumably also with numerous players.

After the disastrous non-performance in Leverkusen, there is a lot of pressure on the Munich team and on coach Thomas Tuchel, who is increasingly driving a wedge between himself and the team with his tactical decisions. Despite their undoubted advantages in terms of quality and experience at this high level in the top flight, the away match at the Stadio Olimpico will definitely not be a walkover for the team from Säbener Straße.

We are therefore taking a somewhat defensive approach to this first leg in terms of betting and are betting that Lazio Rome and Bayern will not lose in the eternal city and that a maximum of three goals will be scored during the match. The Italians have a very good defense, conceding just one goal in three CL group games and also keeping a clean sheet in five of their past Serie A matches. For the X2 & Under 3.5, 1.75 is offered as the maximum odds, which we play with six units at Betano