Torfeuerwerk im rheinischen Derby?

The Rhineland derby on Sunday afternoon between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen is dominated by the impressions of the last matchday. Both teams not only suffered bitter defeats, but also conceded five goals each. The Geißböcke away to TSG Hoffenheim; Bayer at home against record champions Bayern Munich. It will now be all the more interesting to see who gets back on track faster in the direct Bundesliga clash.

If we look at the odds before the prestigious clash between Cologne and Leverkusen, the Werkself must be considered the favourite. While a home win for the Cathedral City team is priced at 3.20, the highest odds for an away win for Seoane’s team are 2.15. Nevertheless, a bet on the three-way market naturally carries a lot of risk, especially since the “Effzeh” have been very stable at home so far this season.

It therefore makes more sense to focus on a forecast on the number of goals between Cologne and Leverkusen. Because both coaches traditionally take an attacking approach and will certainly play to win, it can be assumed that the spectators in attendance at the packed RheinEnergie Stadion will see a goal or two.

Cologne – Statistics & current form

Until last Friday, 1. FC Köln’s season could still be rated as “very good”. In the away game at TSG Hoffenheim, however, the euphoria in the cathedral city began to crack. Coach Steffen Baumgart’s team lost 5-0 to the Kraichgauer and could not even begin to show what had previously made them so strong over the entire 90 minutes. The defence looked wild at times and also offensively there was a lack of the necessary power.

For the first time in the current Bundesliga season, the Geißböcke failed to score a goal at their eighth attempt. On the previous seven matchdays, both teams scored in the matches involving the “Effzeh”, so we are also aiming for a “both score” bet on Sunday between Cologne and Leverkusen.

Offensive remains Baumgart’s hobbyhorse

Alternatively, it is also conceivable to place a bet that more goals will be scored after the change of ends. Only three of Cologne’s 13 goals were scored in the first 45 minutes. The majority of the goals conceded (ten out of 14) also came after the break.

In order to assess the likelihood of a home victory, it is helpful to take a look at some of the statistics. In the current season, there have been three wins and one draw in four games at home. The Geißböcke even have five unbeaten home games in a row – the longest streak since 2016/2017, when they were still under Peter Stöger. Also interesting: 2.25 goals have been scored on average per home game so far in 2021/22.

Because coach Steffen Baumgart never tires of expressing his preference for attacking or even wild football in all formats in which he is a guest (podcast, TV, print), there is virtually no alternative to predicting few goals in the Cologne vs. Leverkusen clash. With the exception of Jannes Horn and Ellyes Skhiri, all players are ready for action and want to make amends for the defeat in Sinsheim.

Predicted line-up of Cologne:
T. Horn – Schmitz, Jorge Meré, Czichos, Hector – Özcan, Ljubicic – Thielmann, Uth, Kainz – Modeste

Last matches played by Köln:

1st Bundesliga
10/15 2021 – Hoffenheim 5 – 0 1. FC Köln

10/01 2021 – 1. FC Köln 3 – 1 Greuther Fürth

09/25 2021 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 1 1. FC Köln

09/18 2021 – 1. FC Köln 1 – 1 RB Leipzig

09/11 2021 – SC Freiburg 1 – 1 1. FC Köln

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

Bad memories will have boiled up for Leverkusen last Sunday. Last season, the Werkself also went into the top match against FC Bayern in absolute top form and conceded an avoidable defeat there, which subsequently led to the Rhinelanders getting completely out of step and taking months to get back on track to some extent.

In the city of medicine, they are now hoping that there will be no duplication of events this season. Once again, Bayer was expecting a lot in the top match against the record champions, but was brought back down to earth in the first 45 minutes. All five goals conceded in the 1:5 defeat came in the first half and caused a painful low blow for the young Seoane team. At least the Werkself showed a first reaction on Thursday evening in the Europa League and fought back from behind to earn a respectable draw at Betis Sevilla.

Leverkusen have scored every time so far this season

This coming Sunday, Patrik Schick, Florian Wirtz and Co. will be looking to redeem themselves on a national level as well and at the same time further polish up what was actually a good record in Cologne in recent years. Leverkusen have won seven of the past 14 matches in the neighbouring cathedral city. The most recent three direct duels were also all won by the European Cup participants; in all three cases Bayer also scored at least three goals of their own.

Generally speaking, there is no need to fear that Seoane’s team will not score offensively at the moment. The former cup winners have scored in all of their competitive matches this season. However, in more than half of all twelve matches played, they have conceded at least one goal, which is why – from a purely statistical point of view – the odds on “Both score” should definitely be the focus of interest between Cologne and Leverkusen.

How big is the rotation?

If we now balance the facts mentioned, it is even a consideration to combine the double chance X2 with the “Both Teams to score” to get even more attractive top odds. In three out of four away games in 2021/22, this configured bet would have gone through.

Aranguiz, Baumgartlinger and Fosu-Mensah are still not an option due to injury. Compared to the aforementioned draw in Andalusia, coach Seoane will certainly make some changes to the starting eleven. At the end of the first of a total of three consecutive English weeks for the Werkself, there is definitely a need for good load management.

Predicted line-up of Leverkusen:
Hradecky – Frimpong, Tah, Tapsoba, Bakker – Demirbay, Andrich – Diaby, Wirtz, Adli – Schick

Last matches played by Leverkusen:

Europa League Grp. G
10/21 2021 – Real Betis 1 – 1 Bayer Leverkusen

1st Bundesliga
10/17 2021 – Bayer Leverkusen 1 – 5 Bayern Munich

10/03 2021 – Arminia Bielefeld 0 – 4 Bayer Leverkusen

Europa League Grp. G
09/30 2021 – Celtic Glasgow 0 – 4 Bayer Leverkusen

1st Bundesliga
09/25 2021 – Bayer Leverkusen 1 – 0 Mainz 05

Cologne – Leverkusen Tip

Even before kick-off of the Rhineland derby on Sunday afternoon, the first small animosities are being exchanged. Steffen Baumgart, for example, spoke of his Cologne team having a home game even at Leverkusen. Rudi Völler was not long in countering, accusing the “Effzeh” coach of “still sucking up to his own”. The knives are sharpened and the ball will be rolling at the RheinEnergie Stadion from 15:30.

The advantage lies with the guests from the city of medicine. At least that is what the betting odds suggest between Cologne and Leverkusen. This assessment is certainly understandable, especially since the Werkself has won the last three direct duels against the Geißböcke and has also been successful in seven of the last 14 away games in the cathedral city. In addition, the Seoane eleven has already proven with the 1-1 draw in Sevilla that the heavy defeat from the previous week seems to have been well dealt with.

First and foremost, however, we are convinced that many goals will be scored in the Rhineland derby, and probably on both sides. We therefore opt for a combined bet between Cologne and Leverkusen that the visitors will pick up at least one point, but that both teams will also score.

On the one hand, this can be argued with the fact that Cologne have scored in seven of their eight Bundesliga matches, while Bayer have actually put the ball in the net in each of their twelve competitive matches so far. Qualitatively, however, we see Seoane’s team ahead, which is why we do not necessarily believe in a home win.