Will the Werkself shoot the frustration from their souls at the fjord?
Never before has a coach remained unbeaten in 28 consecutive away games in the Bundesliga. Xabi Alonso is aiming for precisely this record on Saturday afternoon. If the (still) reigning double winner’s tip of a point win between Kiel and Leverkusen pays off at the weekend, the Spaniard would overtake Udo Lattek and set a new record.
It seems rather unlikely that the new bottom of the league from the Baltic Sea will stop the Werkself’s mega away series, especially since the Rhinelanders delivered a great performance against FC Bayern last week, but ultimately were not rewarded. The gap between them and the record champions thus remains at eight points, which is why the prediction can be made in advance of the Kiel v Leverkusen game that Alonso’s team will not defend their championship title from last year. Nevertheless, Florian Wirtz and Co. will of course be keen to keep up the pressure and do their own homework.
Incidentally, the Störche will remember the first leg in the BayArena with great pleasure. Despite trailing 2-0, the promoted team fought hard to achieve a sensational 2-2 draw, which will certainly still be on the minds of the Bayer professionals. However, the bookmakers in Germany virtually rule out the underdog winning another point.
Kiel vs. Leverkusen AI prediction
Based on the difference in the two xG values (0.76 to 2.07), the Kiel vs. Leverkusen AI prediction thus targets the Asian handicap Kiel (+1.75 AH), which is offered at 1.89 by Bet365.
Kiel – statistics & current form
Last weekend’s 3-1 defeat saw Holstein Kiel slip to last place in the table for the first time since matchday 5. The situation is definitely threatening, because a club that has 13 or fewer points after 22 matches has never been able to stay up at the end of the season. Nevertheless, the team from the Baltic Sea remains optimistic, primarily because they are currently only one point behind the relegation spot.
Kiel’s defense is not Bundesliga-ready
Apart from that, coach Marcel Rapp’s team has recently been able to prove their competitiveness, especially in their own stadium. After all, seven points have been scored in the last four home games. Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg were both defeated by a clear margin. In the relegation thriller against Bochum two weeks ago, they managed a 2-2 draw. However, bottom line is that they have lost seven of the eleven Bundesliga home games played, especially against top teams like Bayern (1-6), Frankfurt (2-4) or RB Leipzig (0-2), even with their own fans behind them, they couldn’t get anything.
In view of this, the odds for the away win before the game between Kiel and Leverkusen are of course of interest, even though the 1.30 at the top for the favorite success does not include any value. It therefore makes sense to bet on a start-to-finish victory for the Werkself, especially since the storks have conceded by far the most goals in the first half so far. The ball went into the KSV goal 34 times before half-time. By way of comparison, the second-best defensive record in the first 45 minutes is 24 goals conceded. Unsurprisingly, the men from the fjord were behind at half-time in 17 of the 22 games mentioned.
A 1.75 is offered in the Betano app for the Kiel v Leverkusen HT2/FT2 prediction, which is statistically justifiable. If you want to take even less of a risk, you can find a 1.44 for at least one goal in both halves, which looks good on combo tickets. In eleven consecutive KSV league matches, at least one goal was scored before and after the break.
Expected lineup for Kiel:
Leverkusen – statistics & current form
For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, last week’s goalless draw against Bayern Munich must have felt like a defeat. Despite a great and very dominant performance, the Werkself missed the opportunity to deal the coup de grâce to their direct championship rivals. With the gap still eight points, the defense of the title has receded even further. What is needed on the remaining matchdays is, on the one hand, a period of weakness for the record champions and, on the other, a winning streak for the Rhinelanders, who have not left the field as losers in 20 Bundesliga games.
Will Leverkusen make short work of it in the first 45 minutes?
On Saturday afternoon, the chances are good in the north of the republic that Xabi Alonso’s team will get back on the winning track after two consecutive 0-0 draws. In terms of quality, the Werkself are on a completely different level than the promoted team. In addition, various revenge desires for the aforementioned 2-2 from the first leg are still noticeable. After two consecutive weeks in which Bayer was able to fully concentrate on the Bundesliga matches without the double burden and to cure minor injuries, I therefore expect a sovereign success of the second-placed team in the KSV Stadium.
Meanwhile, there are also arguments to be found in connection with Florian Wirtz and Co. that point to the foundations being laid in the first 45 minutes. In fact, Leverkusen are the measure of all things in the German top flight, having led 13 times at half-time and scored 30 (!) goals. In 50% of all Bundesliga matches, the Rhinelanders scored two or more goals in the first half.
With a little courage to take risks and the NEO.bet promo code, the betting odds on a half-time handicap bet should also be examined more closely before the unequal duel between Kiel and Leverkusen. The NEO.bet app offers a whopping 3.50 if Alonso’s team goes into the cabins with a two-goal lead.
Provisional Leverkusen line-up:
Kiel – Leverkusen head-to-head / H2H record
The only duel relevant for the direct comparison comes from the first half of the season. After two Bayer goals in the first eight minutes, everything seemed to be going as expected, but with the half-time whistle, the storks scored to make it 1:2 and after the break, Arp converted a penalty to make it 2:2 in the end.
Kiel – Leverkusen Tip
The bottom-placed team from Kiel will host the double winners from Leverkusen on Saturday afternoon. What promises to be a one-sided affair on paper is likely to develop in just one direction on the pitch as well. With a similar performance to last week against Bayern, the Werkself on the fjord could even achieve a high level of success. In 20 of 22 BL games, the KSV conceded two or more goals. With 57 goals conceded, the Rapp team also has the weakest defense. A total of 34 goals were conceded in the first half, when the reigning champions were particularly reliable in scoring.
I therefore prefer the HT2/FT2 tip between Kiel and Leverkusen, which is offered at 1.75 at Betano. My stake is a whopping eight units out of a possible ten. In my opinion, it is hard to imagine the Störche also scoring in the second leg against the current second in the table. Instead, handicap bets in favor of the Rhinelanders can be considered.
