Who will win the six-point game in the basement of the table?
The relegation battle in the Bundesliga comes to a head this weekend. Above all, the direct duel between the bottom-placed team and the second-bottom team will definitely be a game that points the way forward, especially for the team of coach Dieter Hecking. If the tip for the home win between Kiel and Bochum comes true, the storks could temporarily distance their direct competitor by five points and at the same time climb back into the relegation place for the first time in many weeks.
Although both teams have only managed to get one point out of the last three league games, KSV Holstein certainly has the momentum on its side after its courageous performance in the narrow defeat in Munich, including three late goals against the record champions. By comparison, VfL conceded a 1-0 defeat to Freiburg last week, remaining goalless for the second time in a row.
Kiel vs. Bochum Prediction AI
Actually, an important relegation battle is usually defined by duels, deep defenses, and a rather tough game. According to the artificial intelligence, however, this does not apply to the encounter Kiel against Bochum. Instead, the AI lady “BETSiE” expects a relatively lively match with goals on both sides. Adding the xG values of 1.63 and 1.29 gives an expected total number of 2.92 goals, which is why the AI prediction for Kiel and Bochum is a good bet on Over 2.5.
Kiel – Statistics & current form
Given the situation in the table and the threat of relegation, you might think that a rough wind is currently blowing at the Kiel Fjord. It may be windy in the state capital of Schleswig-Holstein, but to project this metaphor onto the mood at KSV Holstein would nevertheless be wrong. After 20 match days, the situation could be a little better, but with a two-point gap to the relegation place and a six-point gap to the safe side, everything is still possible for the debutants. The most important thing is that the team of coach Marcel Rapp believes in itself and its qualities. And that is exactly the case!
In one category, the Kielers are among the top in the BL
This impression was also gained last weekend, when the KSV were 4-0 down in the middle of the second half at the Allianz Arena in Munich, but still didn’t give up. The deserved consequence was three more goals in the final phase, which should at least have a positive effect on self-confidence. In general, the Rapp team seems to be in top form, which can be seen from the fact that the storks have now scored at least one goal in the last 15 minutes in six Bundesliga games in a row and would even occupy a Champions League place in a separate table of the final quarter of an hour!
Uncharacteristic of a relegation candidate, the first division debutant is doing very well offensively. In the last six match days alone, the second-to-last in the Bundesliga scored 17 (!) goals. By way of comparison, VfL Bochum has scored exactly the same number of goals in 20 match days. Since the 15th match day, Harres, Machino and Co. have had the best chance conversion rate in the Bundesliga.
Of course, these remarkable numbers can be cited as an argument when it comes to justifying a home win prediction between Kiel and Bochum. Those looking for an even higher odds can possibly even bet that the home side will score at least once in each half. The Bet365 app offers a handsome 3.25 for this. In February 2025, you can also benefit from the Bet365 bonus code. Alternatively, you can also consider the Over 2.5. On the one hand, because the Rapp team is also the Bundesliga’s most vulnerable defense. On the other hand, given that in ten of the last eleven Bundesliga games with KSV participation, at least three goals were scored.
Kiel’s expected line-up:
Bochum – statistics & current form
The situation in Bochum is assessed as much more critical than with the upcoming opponent. Ten points after 20 match days mean the worst Bundesliga season in the history of the club for VfL. Since the three-point rule was introduced almost 30 years ago, there have only been two clubs that were even worse off than Bochum at this point in the season. As a result, many fans are already anticipating an early final on Sunday afternoon. A defeat must be avoided at all costs, but a draw would not be enough either. Only a win will help.
Bochum’s away weakness outshines everything
At least there are two statistical indicators that should encourage the long-suffering VfL fans. For example, in the last four Bundesliga duels between the bottom-placed team and the penultimate team, the bottom-placed team has never lost and has scored ten out of a possible twelve points. In addition, the Ruhr team is now unbeaten in six Bundesliga games against promoted teams (2-4-0).
Also worth knowing: Eight of the ten points mentioned this season were scored by Dieter Hecking’s team against direct competitors from the bottom of the table. The only problem at this point is that seven of the eight points against the relegation rivals were scored in their own stadium. On the road, the blue and whites only score points. A single point has been scored in ten Bundesliga away games so far. Coach Dieter Hecking’s team is the weakest away team in the league, having only scored seven goals away from home, but having conceded 26.
For this reason, I don’t think that the bottom-placed team will take anything home from the Holstein Stadium at the weekend. If you disagree, you can get odds of 3.10 at Bet-at-Home for Kiel losing at home to Bochum. Meanwhile, with the Bet-at-Home welcome bonus, you have the opportunity to reduce your own risk. To make matters worse, Sissoko, an important anchor, is missing due to a suspension. On the other hand, the winter signings Krauss and Masouras are set to make their debuts in the starting lineup.
Provisional line-up for Bochum:
Kiel – Bochum direct comparison / H2H record
This is the first time that VfL Bochum have traveled to Kiel for a Bundesliga away game. So far, there have only been four second division games, of which VfL did not win any in the Holstein Stadium and lost three times (0-1-3). In the first leg of the current season, however, there was no winner. Bochum led 2-1 at home for a long time, but still had to accept the 2-2 equalizer in the 89th minute. Despite the table situation, the Kiel vs. Bochum betting odds on three or more goals in the game are also of interest this time.
Kiel – Bochum tip
The term “six-point game” was invented for exactly such an encounter as the one on Sunday afternoon at the Kiel Fjord. Between the penultimate and last of the standings, it’s about real big points. The winner achieves a (small) breakthrough, while the loser staggers towards even more difficult times. A three-way bet thus involves a lot of risk, although in my opinion there are some arguments that point to a home success for the storks from Schleswig-Holstein.
KSV Holstein scored as many goals in the last six Bundesliga matches as VfL Bochum in the previous 20 matches. In addition, home advantage or away disadvantage plays a decisive role. Hecking’s team only managed one point from ten Bundesliga away games and only scored seven goals. His counterpart Marcel Rapp’s team, on the other hand, gained plenty of self-confidence with three goals in Munich and continues to firmly believe in their own strength. Partly because of this mindset, I recommend betting on the home win between Kiel and Bochum, which I am playing at NEO.bet at a maximum rate of 2.28 with five units.
