Will Holstein Kiel lose their sixth game in a row?

On Saturday, December 21, 2024, the 1st Bundesliga will see the match between Holstein Kiel and FC Augsburg. Ahead of this clash, the roles seem to be quite clearly distributed, because while the home side have only managed to get five points, the guests currently have 16 points. At first glance, the Kiel v Augsburg betting tip for a win by the away team seems to be quite interesting. However, the bookmakers’ odds do not really reflect this and are even relatively balanced ahead of this game.

In our Kiel vs. Augsburg prediction, we now want to find out the reasons for this and take a closer look at the two teams. It definitely can’t be because of the form of the two teams, because while Kiel have lost all of their last five games, Augsburg have managed to pick up five points in the same period. In addition, the FCA also secured a place in the quarter-finals of the DFB Cup and should therefore have gained plenty of self-confidence. So this point goes to the away team.

The highest Kiel v Augsburg odds for a favorite to win can be found at the bookmaker we tested, Betano. The game kicks off on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. at the Holstein Stadium in Kiel. The match can be followed live and in full on Sky or Wow.

Kiel – Statistics & current form

Holstein Kiel have had a disastrous season so far, managing only five points from their first 14 games. This means that Marcel Rapp’s team is only in 17th place and is therefore one of the weakest teams in the league. In addition, the storks are already six points behind the safety line and are therefore at serious risk of relegation early in the season. Furthermore, the home side have only managed a single victory this season, against 1. FC Heidenheim on match day nine. With the performances they have shown so far, it seems unlikely that they will avoid relegation. However, the season is still long enough for that to change.

Kiel have shown too little attacking threat.

With 14 goals in 14 league games (Ø 1.00), the hosts have one of the weakest attacks in the Bundesliga. In fact, only three teams, VfL Bochum, St. Pauli and Union Berlin, have scored even fewer goals. This is also reflected in the player statistics, with Shuto Machino and Armin Gigovic already being Holstein Kiel’s top scorers with four points each. Nevertheless, Marcel Rapp’s team has only gone four times without scoring a goal, thus celebrating a goal success in 71% of the games. In their own stadium, however, the rate is significantly worse at just 43%. That’s definitely not enough.

Kiel is completely overwhelmed defensively

On the defensive side, however, the storks are doing significantly worse than on the offensive side, because with 37 goals conceded in 14 games (Ø 2.64), Holstein Kiel has the weakest defense in the league. In addition, the home side have kept a clean sheet only once this season, thus conceding at least one goal in 93% of the league games. It gets even worse, though, because in 13 of the 14 games, Kiel even had to clear the ball from their own net more than once. In the battle to avoid relegation, this is of course bad news and so a goal from Augsburg is almost inevitable.

Augsburg – Statistics & current form

Augsburg got off to a much better start to the season than the hosts, with 16 points from their first 14 games putting Jess Thorup’s team in 13th place. However, their lead over the relegation place is only six points and could therefore quickly disappear. A win against Holstein Kiel would therefore be very important. However, Augsburg have not been particularly successful away from home so far, picking up just two points from six away games. This means that the FCA are only in 17th place in the away table, only ahead of VfL Bochum. A win against the Störche is therefore anything but certain and will demand a great deal from the team.

Augsburg lacks penetration

With 16 goals in 14 games (Ø 1.14), the guests’ forward line is on a similar level to the storks’ offense. It is therefore no wonder that Jess Thorup’s team have already gone five games without scoring a goal and have only found the back of the net in 64% of matches. This means that their scoring rate is even worse than that of Holstein Kiel. This is mainly due to the departure of Ermedin Demirovic, who moved to VfB Stuttgart in the summer. The Bosnian striker scored 24 points last season, making him Augsburg’s life insurance. The gap he left behind has not yet been filled.

Augsburg is a bit too vulnerable

Defensively, the away team has not done particularly well so far either, with Augsburg conceding 27 goals in 14 games (Ø 1.93), making them one of the weakest defenses in the league. In fact, only three teams, VfL Bochum, Holstein Kiel and Heidenheim, have conceded more goals. It is therefore no surprise that the guests have only kept a clean sheet twice this season and have thus had to concede the ball in 86% of their games. Away from home, Jess Thorup’s team have not kept a clean sheet at all. The game against Holstein Kiel is therefore far from won.

Kiel – Augsburg Direct comparison / H2H record

In the team analysis alone, there seems to be no real favorite, but what about in the direct comparison? The only duel between the two teams so far was in the DFB Cup in 2019 and was won by FCA 1-0. However, since this game was five years ago, it should hardly play a role in the upcoming clash. At that time, Kiel were also playing in the Bundesliga 2 and were therefore on a different level than they are today. For this reason, the Kiel v Augsburg betting odds are also relatively close.

Kiel – Augsburg betting tip

We recommend the Kiel vs. Augsburg betting tip on “both teams to score – yes”. Both teams have major problems in defense and rarely play to zero. In addition, it is a direct duel in the fight for relegation, so that both teams will give each other absolutely nothing.

The storks are under particular pressure and will have to slowly increase the risk. With an average of 0.36 points, the home side will not survive this season. All in all, we therefore expect a fairly even game and thus chances on both sides of the field.

Alternatively, we recommend the Kiel vs. Augsburg odds for the home team to win a point. This is primarily because Augsburg have not yet been able to win a single game away from home and Kiel have only ever celebrated one victory at the Holstein Stadium. In addition, the Störche also have their own fans behind them, which could make all the difference in a supposedly close game. You can find the best betting odds for this tip at Bet365.