Will the yellow submarine bring down the Old Lady?
Before the next international break, the quarterfinalists in the international competitions must be decided. On Wednesday night, the final two spots in the UEFA Champions League will be awarded. After a 1-1 draw in the first leg, excitement is guaranteed in the clash between top Italian club Juventus and Villarreal, reigning UEFA Europa League winners.
The Old Lady from Turin could have earned a better starting position in the first leg, but at times they seemed to lack the motivation to add a second goal and ultimately got what they deserved. Nevertheless, Juventus is still the favorite against Villarreal according to the current betting odds at the bookmakers. At “To Qualify” odds of under 1.50 are offered for the Italians. A win in regulation time will bring about a 1.90.
It is important to note this season that the away goals rule is no longer applied. Accordingly, in the event of a goalless draw, Juventus Torino would not be able to cheer, but 30 minutes of extra time would be necessary.
Juventus – statistics & current form
After missing out on the Scudetto last season, things did not go according to plan for a long time this season either under returning coach Massimiliano Allegri. The Old Lady’s fans had to write off the title early on. But there is a well-known saying that “unexpected things often happen” – and it is indeed possible to start dreaming again.
15 league games unbeaten
Soberly considered, it must undoubtedly be mentioned that Juventus Turin’s games are rarely beautiful to watch. The neutral soccer fan will hardly find pleasure in the Old Lady’s performances, however, soccer is a results sport and in this regard there is not much reason to complain in recent weeks and months. In the domestic championship, Juventus Turin has now been unbeaten for 15 league games. The last time the Bianconeri had to admit defeat was at the end of November.
Thanks to this consistency, Juventus is once again stalking the top. With nine matchdays to go, the gap is “only” seven points. It is possible that the 37th Scudetto will once again become an issue. The run of success is particularly surprising in view of the fact that important players have been absent time and again in recent weeks and months. For the second leg against the yellow submarine alone, Juventus will have to do without Bonucci, Chiellini, Zakaria, McKennie, Chiesa, and Dybala.
Won only one of the last five knockout CL duels
Current form certainly underlines the home side’s role as favorites. However, the statistics on the international stage raise doubts. Juventus Turin have lost four of their last five knockout duels in the top flight. The glimmer of hope, however, is that Villarreal is from Spain.
Moreover, Juventus Turin has lost only three of its 23 CL duels against Spanish teams at home, even managing to keep a clean sheet in seven of its last nine matches. Due to the defensive strength of Juventus and the starting situation after the 1:1 in the first leg, both teams will take very little risk. Therefore, a prediction on the under 2.5 is recommended for Juventus vs Villarreal.
Predicted lineup of Juventus:
Szczesny – Alex Sandro, de Ligt, Danilo – de Sciglio, Locatelli, Rabiot, Arthur, Cuadrado – Vlahovic, Morata
Last matches played by Juventus:
Serie A
03/12 2022 – Sampdoria Genoa 1 – 3 Juventus FC
03/06 2022 – Juventus FC 1 – 0 Spezia
Coppa Italia
03/02 2022 – AC Florence 0 – 1 Juventus FC
Serie A
02/26 2022 – Empoli 2 – 3 Juventus FC
Champions League Final
02/22 2022 – FC Villarreal 1 – 1 Juventus FC
Villarreal – statistics & current form
The Old Lady from Turin has not exactly covered itself with glory in the knockout stages internationally in recent years. The yellow submarine respectively head coach Unai Emery in particular stands for the complete opposite. The Europa League triumph last season was the greatest success for the club from the city of 50,000 inhabitants. For Unai Emery, it was even the fourth title win in this competition. With 29 successful knockout duels in the Europa League so far, he has set another record.
In the group stage, the yellow submarine underlined that the successes do not only succeed in the Europa League, but also one tier higher. In the process, the last two away games were won. In comparison, Villarreal previously needed 15 away games to celebrate a victory twice. A triumph at the Allianz Stadium would still be a surprise, however, as there have only been three away wins in 15 games in the league so far.
Both Morenos missing
Not only Juventus had a positive dress rehearsal this weekend, but also Villarreal. In the home match against Celta Vigo managed a 1-0 victory. This underlined the good form of recent weeks. In the last seven league games, Emery’s team has picked up 16 of a possible 21 points.
The Spanish representative will have to do without last season’s top scorer Gerard Moreno as well as Alberto Moreno. The ex-Liverpool player has been an absolute key player this season, but tore his cruciate ligament in the 1-0 defeat to Osasuna. Without these two important players, the task will be even more difficult.
However, Villarreal has a very disciplined team with a lot of patience. Accordingly, the guest will not run headlong, but only take manageable risks. The Europa League title was also only won in a penalty shootout and with this knowledge, extra time would be quite a good result for Villarreal. In the second leg between Juventus and Villarreal, betting on another draw is quite justified, as both teams know how to defend at the highest level.
Predicted lineup of Villarreal:
Rulli – Estupinan, Torres, Mandi, Foyth – Capoue, Parejo – Pedraza, Lo Celso, Pino – Danjuma
Last matches played by Villarreal:
LaLiga
03/12 2022 – Villarreal FC 1 – 0 Celta Vigo
03/05 2022 – Osasuna Pamplona 1 – 0 Villarreal FC
02/27 2022 – Villarreal FC 5 – 1 Espanyol
Champions League Final
02/22 2022 – Villarreal FC 1 – 1 Juventus FC
LaLiga
02/19 2022 – Granada 1 – 4 Villarreal FC
Juventus – Villarreal Direct comparison / H2H record
The first leg three weeks ago was also the very first meeting between the two teams. Winter newcomer Dusan Vlahovic was able to score after just a few seconds of play on his CL debut for Juventus. Subsequently, the Old Lady withdrew far and was de facto no longer present in the game forward. This passivity was eventually punished and in the person of Dani Parejo, the yellow submarine managed the deserved equalizer.
Juventus – Villarreal Tip
The Italian top club is considered the clear favorite to advance to the quarterfinals, but the first leg has already shown that the yellow submarine has the quality to strike back at any time. The Spaniards are a very strong team that also has the necessary patience. In addition, the yellow submarine is an absolute knockout specialist, Value is therefore not to be found in Juventus against Villarreal when betting on the home side.
However, it is to be expected that both teams will act very wait-and-see due to the starting situation. This is also supported by the fact that Juventus only scored an average of 1.93 goals per game in their league home games. Villarreal only scored 1.92 goals per game in their away games. So a sub 2.5 or even a sub 1.5 is very close.
Even a tad more interesting with Villarreal vs Juventus is the prediction for a draw at half-time. A goalless first 45 minutes would certainly not be a surprise, but more than double the stakes would be tempting.
