Does Juventus keep their CL chances alive?
The UEFA Europa League final will be played in Budapest on 31 May. The title winner in the second most important European club competition will not only win fame and glory but also a place in the top flight. This is a special incentive, because the quarter-finals feature a number of teams that are unlikely to achieve this via the national championship. Such a duel will kick off this Thursday in Turin. At the Allianz Stadium, odds of maximum 1.85 are offered on Juventus vs. Sporting Lisbon when betting on the Old Lady from Turin.
Due to the points deduction in the domestic championship, the Allegri eleven is only in a disappointing seventh place in the league and no longer has a realistic chance of reaching the top four. Accordingly, the Europa League is of great importance, but this undertaking will not be a foregone conclusion due to the existing competition. In the quarter-finals of the To Qualify between Juventus and Sporting Lisbon, the prediction on the Italians brings 1.50 times the stake. The green lions from Lisbon eliminated Premier League leaders Arsenal London in the round of 16 and have already made a name for themselves as giant-killers. So the Old Lady is warned.
In the fight for the Europa League title there is also a German representative, Bayer Leverkusen. Other favourites include Manchester United and Conference League winners AS Roma.
Juventus – statistics & current form
A historically poor group stage was completed by the Allegri eleven in the autumn of 2022 in the UEFA Champions League. The Italians managed to collect just three points, but still managed to get into the Europa League thanks to the better goal difference against Maccabi Haifa. The next setback came at the beginning of 2023, when Allegri’s team was deducted 15 points from the table for accounting fraud. Despite this mortgage, there was still some flirtation with a top-four finish. However, due to a 1:2 defeat against Lazio Rom at the weekend, this dream has also come to an end.
The Old Lady is hard to beat at home
Juventus Turin have won three UEFA Cup titles (1977, 1990 and 1993), and now they need to win the Europa League to secure a ticket to the CL. The Allegri team wants to lay the foundation for this in front of the home crowd. A look at the bare figures ensures that this is anything but unlikely. Although Massimilliano Allegri’s second term in charge has not yet been a success story, there are rarely any countable results for the competition at the Allianz Stadium.
In Serie A, the Old Lady averages 2.40 points per game. Eleven of the 15 home games were won, three times the points were shared and only against promoted Monza did Juventus have to admit defeat in front of the home crowd. This defeat, however, came a few days after the points deduction was announced and is to a certain extent due to a “shock paralysis”.
In the case of Juventus vs. Sporting Lisbon, the fact that the Old Lady has never lost a home match in the UEFA Europa League (six wins, seven draws) speaks for the prediction on the home side. Since moving into their current home ground (this took place in 2011), the Italians have celebrated 34 victories in 55 international matches (13 draws, eight defeats). In terms of personnel, the hosts will be able to draw on a full complement of players. The absences of Kaio Jorge and Mattia de Sciglio will not make any difference.
Last games of Juventus:
Serie A
09/04/2023 – Lazio Roma 2 – 1 Juventus FC
Coppa Italia
05/04/2023 – Juventus FC 1 – 1 Inter Milan
Serie A
02/04/2023 – Juventus FC 1 – 0 Verona
20/03/2023 – Inter Milan 0 – 1 Juventus FC
Europa League Final Stage
17/03/2023 – SC Freiburg 0 – 2 Juventus FC
Sporting Lisbon – Statistics & current form
Sporting Lisbon supporters are also disappointed when looking at the current table at home. In fourth place in the table, Ruben Amorim’s side are already 14 points behind big city rivals Benfica Lisbon. However, not only the Red Eagles have pulled away, but also FC Porto and even SC Braga already have a comfortable lead over the green lions. At least third place would be necessary for Sporting to keep their CL chance alive in the league.
Since eleven competitive games without defeat
This situation in the Primeira Liga can be attributed to a poor autumn, as there have been no setbacks for Sporting Lisbon in the last two months. The 2-1 defeat at home to FC Porto on 12 February was their last competitive match loss. The Amorim team has now gone eleven games without defeat and should be able to travel to Turin with a broad chest.
In contrast to Juventus Turin, Sporting’s dress rehearsal was correspondingly successful. However, the match against underdog Casa Pia was not for the faint-hearted. The no-name team managed to equalise three times, only after Trincao’s third goal Casa Pia did not come back and Sporting celebrated their sixth league win in the last seven games.
Despite conceding three goals on Monday night, the odds for the under 2.5 come into focus between Juventus and Sporting Lisbon. Prior to this match, Spanish veteran Adan collected a clean sheet in five straight. Sporting are regarded as a team with a strong game, but will not want to take any big risks in the first leg in Turin. The Portuguese are also considered strong at home and will want to put themselves in a good position for the second leg at the Estadio Jose Alvalade. A draw or even a narrow defeat would be such a good result for Sporting.
Last matches played by Sporting Lisbon:
Liga Portugal
09/04/2023 – Casa Pia AC 3 – 4 Sporting CP
06/04/2023 – Gil Vicente 0 – 0 Sporting CP
02/04/2023 – Sporting CP 3 – 0 Santa Clara
Europa League Final Stage
17/03/2023 – Arsenal FC (3)1 – 1(5) Sporting CP
Liga Portugal
13/03/2023 – Sporting CP 3 – 0 Boavista
Juventus – Sporting Lisbon Direct comparison / H2H record
The only two duels between these two teams were in the 2017/18 season. In the then group stage of the top flight, the Old Lady prevailed 2-1 in front of their home crowd, while in Lisbon the teams parted with a 1-1 draw. Sporting’s city rivals Benfica Lisbon faced Allegri’s side in the top flight in the autumn and lost both home and away. Sporting also do not have good memories of Italian opponents, having never won an away game in Italy (three draws, eleven defeats).
Juventus – Sporting Lisbon Tip
By winning the title, Juventus Turin could end a difficult season on a reasonably satisfactory note after all. Due to the table situation in Serie A, the pressure is enormous for the Allegri eleven. This was already evident against SC Freiburg (3:0 on aggregate), and the Old Lady has certainly been a class or two stronger in terms of play in the past. However, the Bianconeri have a lot of individual class and have taken up the fight. This will also be necessary in the quarter-finals, because after the Arsenal coup, Sporting will certainly not be underestimated by Juventus.
Based on the impressive home record (never lost an EL match at home) and the quality of players like Di Maria, Vlahovic, Chiesa or the strongly performing Rabiot, the Allegri eleven should underline their role as favourites with a focused attitude. We see very good chances in this and recommend betting on the home win with six units between Juventus and Sporting Lisbon.
