Will Paris win their group in Turin?
Did you know that Juventus could lose five of their six Champions League group stage games for the first time in their history? Only once in fact did the old lady record five defeats in a CL season – in 2002/03, however, they still went all the way to the final.
Exactly 20 years after reaching the final of Europe’s most important club competition, coach Massimiliano Allegri’s team has no chance of reaching the last 16 before the final matchday. They may even face a total knockout. If a bet on an away win between Juventus and PSG pays off and Maccabi Haifa score against Benfica in the parallel match, the Piedmont club would slip to fourth place in Group H.
The visitors from the French capital also have a lot at stake on the final matchday, after all they want to secure the group win. To do so, they must defend their four-goal lead over Benfica, ideally with a three-goal win of their own.
Coach Galtier will have to do without the suspended Neymar. Nevertheless, there is still enough quality in the attack to think about a prediction of at least three goals in the course of the game before the Juventus versus PSG match.
Juventus – statistics & current form
Juventus are playing a disastrous group stage so far. The Bianconeri only managed to win the home match against the crass underdogs Maccabi Haifa. Even in the second leg, however, they suffered a 2-0 defeat at the hands of the Israelis. It was one of four defeats in the five matches played so far. No wonder, then, that the old lady is walking with a cane and can only secure a place in the Europa League for the winter.
In order to achieve this minimum goal, the former Italian subscription champions must pick up at least as many points against Paris St. Germain on Wednesday evening as Haifa did at home against Benfica Lisbon. Thanks to the much better goal difference, Allegri’s side should even be able to afford a defeat should the current bottom team also lose out to the still unbeaten Portuguese side as expected.
Juventus have a lot of problems to deal with
Hope for a positive result, however, is limited from the home side’s point of view. In addition to the poor results on the international stage, Dusan Vlahovic and Co. are also clearly lagging behind their own standards in Serie A at the moment. In sixth place, they are already ten points behind leaders Napoli, despite the fact that the Italian record champions have won three times in a row in the league – always by zero.
On Wednesday evening, however, the opponents are not Lecce or Empoli, but Paris St. Germain. Consequently, we would refrain from predicting a home win between Juventus and PSG and instead focus on betting on at least three goals in the course of the match. In four of the five group matches so far involving Juve, more than two goals have been scored. Likewise, in four out of five cases, betting on ‘both goals’ would have paid off.
Depending on the result in the parallel match, the old lady might even have to take a risk sooner or later. With the courage of desperation and in view of the eleven goals conceded, which makes the defence too vulnerable on the European stage, one or the other goal should therefore be observed. Bremer, de Sciglio, Paredes, Pogba, Chiesa, di Maria and probably Dusan Vlahovic will all be absent through injury. Danilo will have to watch suspended. Coach Allegri therefore continues to struggle with the tight personnel situation.
Predicted line-up of Juventus:
Szczesny; Bonucci, Gatti, Sandro; Cuadrado, Rabiot, Locatelli, Miretti, Kostic; Kean, Milik
Last matches played by Juventus:
Series A
29/10/2022 – Lecce 0 – 1 Juventus FC
Champions League Grp. H
26/10/2022 – Benfica 4 – 3 Juventus FC
Series A
22/10/2022 – Juventus FC 4 – 0 Empoli
15/10/2022 – FC Torino 0 – 1 Juventus FC
Champions League Grp. H
11/10/2022 – Maccabi Haifa 2 – 0 Juventus FC
PSG – Statistics & current form
For Paris St Germain, it would be a hugely important exclamation mark should they end up finishing the complicated Group H as the first-placed team. Although the French side shared the points twice against their direct rivals for group victory, Benfica Lisbon, coach Christophe Galtier’s charges hold all the aces. With a goal difference of four goals, an away win at the Allianz Stadium should be enough to keep them at the top of the table and potentially avoid a major challenge in the last 16.
Those who have experienced the French champions this season, however, also know that the approach of the coach and his star ensemble is not to wait and play for results. The approach is brash, courageous and often at the expense of the team’s own defence. Just last weekend, the Parisians conceded three goals in an away match at Troyes. But because their own offence scored four goals, they still ended up with their third league victory in a row.
Will there be the next spectacle with PSG participation?
In general, of course, the strength of the red and blue is clearly in their forward play. 14 goals in five Champions League matches prove this thesis just as impressively as 36 goals in 13 matches in the French Ligue 1. However, it should not go unmentioned that the Galtier eleven also had to concede at least one goal in all matches in the top division, which is why the odds on goals scored by both teams between Juventus and PSG could be of additional interest.
If you want to bet on the French team winning in the north of Italy, you can argue that Paris St. Germain have always won the final group game in the last six (!) CL seasons. However, not a single away game in the club’s history has been won at Juventus in Turin. Will that change on Wednesday night?
Can Messi and Mbappé do it in twos?
Definitely not going to change is that in the absence of the suspended Neymar, the main burden in attack will be on Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi. The Argentinian former world footballer has already been involved in seven of his team’s goals in the current group phase, despite only appearing in four matches.
His congenial partner Mbappé is a convincing enforcer and has already scored six goals in this competition. Only a certain Zlatan Ibrahimovic has scored more goals for Paris in the CL group stage. For Mbappé to score again, however, attractive odds of 2.30 are being offered at the top during the week.
Predicted PSG line-up:
Donnarumma; Marquinhos, Ramos, Kimpembe; Hakimi, Soler, Verratti, Ruiz, Mendes; Messi, Mbappe
Last matches played by PSG:
Ligue 1
29/10/2022 – Paris Saint-Germain 4 – 3 Troyes
Champions League Grp. H
26/10/2022 – Paris Saint-Germain 7 – 2 Maccabi Haifa
Ligue 1
22/10/2022 – AC Ajaccio 0 – 3 Paris Saint-Germain
17/10/2022 – Paris Saint-Germain 1 – 0 Marseille
Champions League Grp. H
12/10/2022 – Paris Saint-Germain 1 – 1 Benfica
Juventus – PSG Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
There have been nine meetings between these two clubs in the European Cup so far. Paris won the first leg 2-1 at home around two months ago. Kylian Mbappé scored a brace in the first 22 minutes. Weston McKennie could only reduce the score in the second half. Incidentally, it was Paris’ first ever win against the Old Lady. Away from home, on the other hand, they have lost three games and drawn one after four attempts.
Juventus – PSG Tip
We are looking forward to an interesting clash at the Allianz Stadium on Wednesday night from 21:00. Two renowned clubs and European heavyweights meet. Nevertheless, the omens seem to be quickly clarified. Juventus are the clear underdogs against PSG according to the betting odds. The odds for an away win are just 1.75. The bookmakers therefore do not have much confidence in the Italians.
This assessment is not unfounded, because the old lady is playing a season to forget, has lost four of the five Champions League group matches, has no chance of reaching the last 16 and has to do without numerous key players. Especially defensively, Allegri’s team has been far too vulnerable at international level so far. Eleven goals conceded underline this fact.
With the visitors from France still fighting for the group win and Juve possibly having to take risks depending on the intermediate result in the parallel match, we expect at least three goals. We therefore bet on the over 2.5 between Juventus and PSG and also argue that the over-matches have recently taken the upper hand for both teams, at least in the top flight.
