The direct duel for the group victory

In the preliminary round Group C at this Women’s World Cup 2023, the most important decisions have already been made. The women from Spain and Japan are no longer in contention for the round of 16.

Both teams have the maximum of six points on their account and will only duel for the group victory on Monday. This could be very important for the rest of the tournament, as only the runner-up from Group A would be waiting in the last 16.

The Iberians are considered to have a slight advantage, as they have probably made the better impression so far and have already scored eight goals. Because the Asians also have the worse goal difference, a draw would be enough for the Europeans to defend their top position in Group C. The corresponding odds for a Japan vs. Spain bet on the double chance X2 are too low, however, to see any appealing value in it.

In other words, “Nadeshiko Japan” has to play for victory if they want to finish first in Group C. Moreover, it is fair to say that both national teams have been very playful offensively in the tournament so far. We are therefore not averse to predicting three or more goals between Japan and Spain in the course of the match, although the best bookmakers are expecting a low-scoring match.

Japan – Statistics & current form

Japan’s women footballers started this World Cup tournament as secret favourites. The Asian women have qualified for all World Cup finals so far. In 2011, they won the title, the biggest success in the association’s history. Only four years later, they reached the final again, but lost to the USA. Nevertheless, the kickers from the land of the five elements are always among the extended circle of favourites for the cup due to their past and their traditionally uncomfortable style of play.

So far, coach Futoshi Ikeda’s team has lived up to the high expectations. They opened with a convincing 5-0 win over Zambia, followed by a 2-0 victory over Costa Rica. Despite the outstanding goal difference, the Asians are only in second place in the standings. To manage the group win, the odds on their own treble would have to come true on Monday between Japan and Spain.

A draw will not be enough for Japan

Though such a scenario cannot be ruled out, bettors see the world number three, who have won their last three international matches with an overall goal difference of 12:0, in the role of the underdog against the title aspirants from southern Europe.

Nevertheless, we believe that the Japanese team, which is well-stocked and plays as a collective, will score at least one goal. As a result, the odds on both teams to score or on the over 2.5 could become more important in the match between Japan and Spain. Four of the last eight international matches involving the “Nadeshiko” have resulted in at least three goals.

Predicted line-up of Japan:

Japan (Official line-up) 3-4-3

Spain – Statistics & current form

In the run-up to this World Cup in Australia & New Zealand, one did not know exactly how to rate the Spanish women’s national team. The quality of the individual players is undisputed, but in the recent past there have always been various sideshows that have led to a strained relationship between the players and the association.

So far, however, the team of the much-criticised long-term coach Jorge Vilda seems to be on the right track. The 3-0 win over Costa Rica in the opening game could have been much higher if they had made better use of their chances, and in the 5-0 win over Zambia they only needed a few strong phases to pose problems for the helplessly overstretched Africans.

Is Spain’s attack still in scoring mood?

Despite this, it will be exciting to see how the Iberians handle their first test at eye level. Is the defence really that stable or could the underdogs of this Group C just not fully expose the deficits of the Spaniards? But it is a fact that the offensive, in which world footballer Alexia Putellas is not playing a major role after her cruciate ligament injury, seems to be beyond reproach.

That, in turn, is also due to the test match phase before the World Cup. The Vilda eleven scored at least three times in six of nine international matches in the 2023 calendar year. In total, they scored 30 goals, i.e. significantly more than three goals of their own on average per match. In eight out of nine cases, a bet on the over 2.5 would have paid off, which is why we are not going out on a limb with a prediction of three or more goals in the course of the match, also in view of the attractive odds.

Predicted Spain line-up:

Spain (Official line-up) 4-2-3-1

Japan – Spain Direct comparison / H2H balance

For the first time, the two women’s national teams will face each other in a major tournament on Monday morning. All previous four meetings, meanwhile, have been on friendly terms. This was also the case in the most recent direct encounter last year, which went narrowly to the Spaniards with a 1-0 win.

However, it was also the only one of the four matches in which both teams did not score. In two of the four matches mentioned, a bet on the over 2.5 would have gone through. However, there is no clear tendency, although it must be taken into account that the Asians have never been able to celebrate a victory against the women from southern Europe in four attempts.

Japan – Spain Tip

A real top match, which we could well imagine in this form in the round of the last eight or in the semi-finals, will take place on Monday morning at Sky Stadium in Wellington. Neither Japan nor Spain have shown any sign of weakness so far, each celebrating two commanding victories. Neither team has yet conceded a goal.

However, because the Vilda team has scored one more goal, they currently lead the table in Group C and need just one point in a direct encounter to secure their place in the last 16 as group winners. If we look at the bookmakers’ Japan vs. Spain betting odds, the southern Europeans even go into this encounter as favourites. Still, we don’t think a three-way bet makes much sense.

Instead, we go against the trend of this World Cup so far and also against the bookmakers’ assessment by forcing a bet on the over 2.5 before the match between Japan and Spain. Japan must win, both teams have excellent offensive lines and have hardly been challenged defensively.

The latter will now change, which is why we can well imagine that the spectators will see a goal or two. At the top, a proud 2.25 can be picked up for the over 2.5.