Will the Japanese create the next sensation?
Is Thursday the day Germany bow out of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar?
The DFB eleven doesn’t have it completely in its own hands and must above all look at what happens in the parallel match. However, we expect that they will be successful in the duel between Japan and Spain with a bet on a Spanish victory, which would play into the Flick team’s hands.
A look at the standings makes it clear how exciting it can get on this final matchday in Group E. Spain are at the top of the standings with four points and are sure to top the group with a win against the Japanese. On the other hand, the Samurai Blue, who currently have three points, can also secure first place with a win over the Furia Roja.
There are very crazy scenarios in this group. If Costa Rica (3 points) win against Germany (1 point) and the Japanese win against Spain, both European heavyweights will be eliminated. In view of this, however, the Iberians will once again put everything into this match to avoid any discussions. Ahead of the clash between Japan and Spain, our prediction is therefore very clearly in favour of a victory for the Spanish selection.
One point could be too little for the Japanese if Germany wins against Costa Rica at the same time with a two-goal difference, which does not sound unrealistic. Hajime Moriyasu’s team will probably also make their own direction dependent on how they fare in the parallel match. However, after the performances they have shown so far, the Japanese will have to rise above themselves again to get past the group stage at a World Cup for the second time in a row.
Japan – Statistics & current form
It is really very difficult to say what impression Japan have made in their first two games at this World Cup. On the one hand, the Asians were praised to the skies after beating Germany, but on closer inspection, Hajime Moriyasu’s side have arguably only had one strong quarter of an hour at this tournament, in the closing stages against the German team.
All aboard for the showdown
The Japanese were already lucky in the first match that they didn’t go down badly against Germany and should have been down 0:3 in the interim. But it speaks for the mentality of the Samurai Blue that this match was turned around after goals by Ritsu Doan and Takuma Asano, admittedly with the active support of the German back line.
Japan’s true colours were then on show against Costa Rica. Against weak Central Americans, the Asians hardly created any scoring opportunities and missed some of them in a frightening manner. The fact that Costa Rica scored the winning goal with their only shot on goal is something the Japanese have only themselves to blame. With the performance of the first two games, we are looking more at the odds for a handicap win for the Europeans between Japan and Spain.
Hajime Moriyasu has tried a lot in terms of personnel. For long stretches, he left two of his stars on the bench, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Takumi Minamino. We at least expect the Arsenal defender to slide into the starting eleven. Takuma Asano has also earned a place in the starting line-up. Generally, the Samurai Blue can field the best line-up, whatever that may mean for the coach.
Predicted line-up of Japan:
Gonda – Nagatomo, Itakura, Yoshida, Tomiyasu – Morita, Endo – Kamada, Doan, J. Ito – Asano – Coach: Moriyasu
Last matches played by Japan:
World Cup Group E
27/11/2022 – Japan 0 – 1 Costa Rica
23/11/2022 – Germany 1 – 2 Japan
Friendlies
17/11/2022 – Japan 1 – 2 Canada
27/09/2022 – Japan 0 – 0 Ecuador
23/09/2022 – Japan 2 – 0 USA
Spain – Statistics & current form
Spain is an absolute benchmark in international football. Luis Enrique’s team have what it takes to become world champions and are certainly among the closest favourites for the title. First they have to reach the play-offs, but the statistics are on the Europeans’ side. In the regular season, the Spanish have never lost a World Cup match against an Asian representative. Only in 2002 did they lose on penalties to South Korea.
Furia Roja in strong form
Furia Roja are also experts when it comes to the final group game at World Cups. In eight of the last nine World Cup tournaments, the Spaniards won the last match of the preliminary round. Only in 2018 did they draw 2-2 with Morocco. Therefore, we can’t imagine that the Iberians will lose on Thursday either and we are sticking to our prediction of a Spanish victory between Japan and Spain.
The Spanish team was rightly hyped after their 7-0 win over Costa Rica in their opener. They wanted to build on this performance against Germany. They succeeded in phases, but on balance it was a game of equals between the old rivals. Alvaro Morata put the Furia Roja in front with his second joker goal of this World Cup. But the German side equalised late on and in the end it was a fair draw.
Luis Enrique is a big fan of greater rotation. Changes are definitely possible, perhaps even to be expected. It is conceivable, for example, that the Spanish coach will now start with superjoker Alvaro Morata, who could then replace Marco Asensio or Ferran Torres in the team.
Predicted line-up of Spain:
Simon – Alba, Laporte, Rodri, Carvajal – Busquets, Gavi, Pedri – Olmo, Torres, Asensio – Coach: Luis Enrique
Last matches played by Spain:
World Cup Group E
28/11/2022 – Spain 1 – 1 Germany
23/11/2022 – Spain 7 – 0 Costa Rica
Friendlies
17/11/2022 – Jordan 1 – 3 Spain
UEFA Nations League A Grp. 2
28/09/2022 – Portugal 0 – 1 Spain
25/09/2022 – Spain 1 – 2 Switzerland
Japan – Spain Direct comparison / H2H balance
Till today, there have been no major points of contact between Japan and Spain. Only one duel is recorded in the history books. A year before the home World Cup in 2002, the Japanese were on a European tour and made a guest appearance in Cordoba, Spain, in April 2001. The Spaniards had a number of stars in the team, such as Pep Guardiola or Raul and Carles Puyol, but the real big time was yet to come for the Furia Roja.
The Japanese were just about to reap the first fruits of the J-League and had great euphoria in the run-up to the World Cup at home. Nevertheless, it was unexpected that this match was pointedly close for a long time. It was not until the 89th minute that the Spanish managed to score the winning goal to make it 1-0, Ruben Baraja of Valencia FC scoring the golden goal of the match.
Japan – Spain Tip
It could be a very exciting evening with fingernail biting and fingers crossed in both parallel games. If the Japanese lose, they are eliminated for sure. A draw should be too little. Japan must play to win and Spain cannot do otherwise. The conditions sound very much as if more than 2.5 goals will be scored in this match.
However, the Furia Roja will tend to score at least one more goal. The Spaniards have played an outstanding game and a very good game in Qatar, while the Samurai Blue have only managed a convincing quarter of an hour.
Of course it would be bitter for Japan to be eliminated after their opening win against Germany, but we think it will inevitably go that way. The Spaniards should be too strong and, in our opinion, will decide the match early on. That is why we have decided to play the betting odds on a handicap win (-1.5) for the Europeans between Japan and Spain.
